Thundersnow12 Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Lol. 18z NAM all snow at DKB Saturday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Lol. 18z NAM all snow at DKB Saturday morning early snow.gif Maybe the earliest I've posted one of these Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 It'll be interesting to see how far south the flakes can fly. Near sfc temps are usually an issue at this time of year and the colder the 850 mb temps, the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 It'll be interesting to see how far south the flakes can fly. Near sfc temps are usually an issue at this time of year and the colder the 850 mb temps, the better. GFS/NAM have tried to cool 850's to almost -6 deg C so maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Maybe the earliest I've posted one of these Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 what a disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Chance of snow here in St Paul for Saturday morning. Local news even making it a story. Shows you how early it is even for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Chance of snow here in St Paul for Saturday morning. Local news even making it a story. Shows you how early it is even for here. If MSP can receive something measurable it would be the 2nd earliest occurrence I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 If MSP can receive something measurable it would be the 2nd earliest occurrence I think. 4th earliest...if it would happen. Sep 24, 1985 (0.4") Sep 26, 1942 (1.7") Sep 30, 1961 (0.1") Oct 8, 1959 (0.3") Oct 9, 1925 (0.5") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 MPX saying 850 temps will certainly be cold enough for flakes, but any accumulation if it were to happen would be across the river into W. WI. We'll see. I just moved here from Chicago, so talking snow in early October is kinda crazy. But I guess you guys are also talking about it down there too. Sign of things to come this winter? If MSP can receive something measurable it would be the 2nd earliest occurrence I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 wind really did a number on the fall color today, with around 30% leaf drop around here. MQT mentioned possible accumulating snow for the higher elevations this weekend... windy and 51 tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 Not digging this upcoming cool-down. It's only my obviously fallible memory but it seems like chilly Octobers forebode a warm winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 4th earliest...if it would happen. Sep 24, 1985 (0.4") Sep 26, 1942 (1.7") Sep 30, 1961 (0.1") Oct 8, 1959 (0.3") Oct 9, 1925 (0.5") Scanned nowdata quickly and missed those 1942 and 1961 occurrences. Me FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 Not digging this upcoming cool-down. It's only my obviously fallible memory but it seems like chilly Octobers forebode a warm winter. Hope your memory is wrong. Welcome back for the winter. The wife and I stopped in London for a meal while heading up the 401 this summer. It seems like a nice city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 Not digging this upcoming cool-down. It's only my obviously fallible memory but it seems like chilly Octobers forebode a warm winter. Meh. I see no real correlation. Pumped for your first winter in a LES belt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 Not digging this upcoming cool-down. It's only my obviously fallible memory but it seems like chilly Octobers forebode a warm winter. cold is definitely the way to go this winter, i wouldn't worry about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 cold is definitely the way to go this winter, i wouldn't worry about it Epic complaining enroute? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 Not digging this upcoming cool-down. It's only my obviously fallible memory but it seems like chilly Octobers forebode a warm winter. I believe there is a connection there, lets hope the cold is passive, but it doesn't look to be the case. Edit: actually looking at the data it is more of a mixed bag. There are some real clunker winters in there but also some really good winters in there, at least locally when looking at the top 20 coldest Octobers compared to the following winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 Looking forward to some actual weather happening tomorrow night/overnight. Nice stretch of days and all lately...but, zzzzzzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 Hope your memory is wrong. Welcome back for the winter. The wife and I stopped in London for a meal while heading up the 401 this summer. It seems like a nice city. Thanks as always IWXwx. Yeah, it's ai'ight, as the kiddies say. And PM me if it was a bbq place. I'm still trying to find a place that makes good ribs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 Meh. I see no real correlation. Pumped for your first winter in a LES belt? Yup. If my max event this winter is <2 feet I'm going to be seriously bummed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 cold is definitely the way to go this winter, i wouldn't worry about it I'll have to take your word for it. I don't even know the basic LR progs for this winter. Still weak Nino/-EPO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 I believe there is a connection there, lets hope the cold is passive, but it doesn't look to be the case. Edit: actually looking at the data it is more of a mixed bag. There are some real clunker winners in there but also some really good winters in there, at least locally when looking at the top 20 coldest Octobers compared to the following winters. Good to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 Small sample size, but some cold Octobers that "turned into" cold winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CHI_Weather Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 Good weather thus far. It might actually rain tomorrow; I cant complain at all, 60s and 70s my type of weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 Yup. If my max event this winter is <2 feet I'm going to be seriously bummed. Hopefully it's a good time for you. We expect many snow photos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 I believe there is a connection there, lets hope the cold is passive, but it doesn't look to be the case. Edit: actually looking at the data it is more of a mixed bag. There are some real clunker winners in there but also some really good winters in there, at least locally when looking at the top 20 coldest Octobers compared to the following winters. I have to admit I too was thinking of how often a cold Oct seemed to lead to a mild winter, but as you said, looking at the data, a mixed bag, but actually, the top 20 coldest Octobers had way more good winters that followed than clunker winters. I mean, seeing the few clunkers (1889-90, 1952-53) is a bit unsettling, but if nothing else, shows how there is never a set pattern in anything. several awesome winters followed a top 20 cold October (1880-81, 1925-26, 1977-78, 1981-82), and many other decent ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 Well that will be interesting to see how far south the snow makes it this weekend! Skilling dropped his high down to 46° for Saturday. Thinking frost is a good bet now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 Been either normal or below normal at my local for most of the last 10 months temp-wise...don't see anything changing that any time soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 4km NAM showing snow moving into Iowa Sat morning lol. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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