MJO812 Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 52 here right now. Most of the tv stations around here is going with a rainy Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 43 here. 37 Toms River NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxwell03 Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 06Z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 That first week of this month sealed the deal for an above normal month and it great skewed how the rest of the month has been. I was suprised to find that half the days this month were below normal with a couple of near normal days (0 to +1). and ultimately we will end up with half the days for month ending up below normal once you include today and a couple more days this week prior to the end of the month warmth. Of course the warm departures were far more substantial despite an equal number of above and below normal days in September so the month will likely be +1 to +2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 That first week of this month sealed the deal for an above normal month and it great skewed how the rest of the month has been. I was suprised to find that half the days this month were below normal with a couple of near normal days (0 to +1). and ultimately we will end up with half the days for month ending up below normal once you include today and a couple more days this week prior to the end of the month warmth. Of course the warm departures were far more substantial despite an equal number of above and below normal days in September so the month will likely be +1 to +2. It's not just the duration of the departures, but how extreme they are as well. People tend to focus on how many days are + or - but how big those positive or negative departures were is just as important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 It's not just the duration of the departures, but how extreme they are as well. People tend to focus on how many days are + or - but how big those positive or negative departures were is just as important. Only 4 days of -5 or greater. Even today will probably end up around -4 or -5 at the most. Meanwhile by the weekend we could see a few departures of +10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 Should be 80F at least Sat-Mon, which will be +10 easily on the dailies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 Should be 80F at least Sat-Mon, which will be +10 easily on the dailies. The Euro doesn't look too enthused with temps that warm with the onshore flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 On track for the 11th month in a row at Central Park with temperature departures below +2. 10-13...+3.3 11-13....-2.5 12-13...+1.0 1-14......-4.0 2-14......-3.7 3-14......-4.8 4-14......-0.7 5-14.....+1.6 6-14.....+1.0 7-14......-0.4 8-14......-0.7 9-14.....+1.1 so far the average temperature should end up around 69.5 which is above normal...1980-2009 average is 68.4...2010-2013 is 69.5...1870-2009 is 67.8... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 Temp departure here down to +0.2 degrees after today. The dry weather in August and Sept has led to quite a few good radiating nights with greater neg departures in surburbia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 69.5 would only be +1.5 for September which would be in line with the cooler pattern this year. Sep 75.2 60.8 68.0 60.8 (1871) 73.5 (1961) that's a so called smoothed normals...the 1981-2010 30 year average was 68.4...69.5 is +1.1 above average...I rather use the exact averages... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 More of the same easterly flow pattern since the beginning of August today. Here's the days at LGA since 8-1: 8-1...SSE 8-2...ENE 8-3...ENE 8-4...SSE 8-10.SE 8-11.SE 8-12.SE 8-13.SE 8-19.ENE 8-20.SE 8-22.SE 8-23.ENE 8-24.ENE 8-25.ENE 8-26.SSE 8-27.SSE 8-29.SE 8-30.SE 9-5..SSE 9-7..NE 9-8..E 9-9..NE 9-10.NE 9-12.ENE 9-13.E 9-14.NE 9-18.NE 9-19.NE 9-20.SE 9-24.NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 How long with this mild zonal pattern last after this Thursday/Friday. It looks like it extends well into October so we could see a rapid very warm to cold switch when things change again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 More of the same easterly flow pattern since the beginning of August today. Here's the days at LGA since 8-1: 8-1...SSE 8-2...ENE 8-3...ENE 8-4...SSE 8-10.SE 8-11.SE 8-12.SE 8-13.SE 8-19.ENE 8-20.SE 8-22.SE 8-23.ENE 8-24.ENE 8-25.ENE 8-26.SSE 8-27.SSE 8-29.SE 8-30.SE 9-5..SSE 9-7..NE 9-8..E 9-9..NE 9-10.NE 9-12.ENE 9-13.E 9-14.NE 9-18.NE 9-19.NE 9-20.SE 9-24.NE Would this be related to the +NAO of late summer? Past analogs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 The Euro doesn't look too enthused with temps that warm with the onshore flow. Latest Euro has temps of 80-81F in NYC for Sat-Mon, prior to the arrival of the BDCF Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Would this be related to the +NAO of late summer? Past analogs? It's mostly that the blocking has been focused to our NE south of Greenland promoting easterly flow here. This week the easterly flow continues as the blocking shifts south but remains focused to our N and NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 The 12z gfs LR turns us from late August to November. I know it's BS but that's one of the most impressive CONUS wide cold shots I've seen on the gfs in the LR this early in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 The 12z gfs LR turns us from late August to November. I know it's BS but that's one of the most impressive CONUS wide cold shots I've seen on the gfs in the LR this early in the season. Yeah that's pretty cold. It was pointed out in the NE thread by will that nino winters can feature some good cold in October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Latest Euro has temps of 80-81F in NYC for Sat-Mon, prior to the arrival of the BDCF Tuesday. Yea I noticed today's 12z brought back some of the heat for a couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 The -EPO start to October will continue the trend since the beginning of 2013. The ridging to our north over SE Canada will keep the highs tracking to our north with easterly flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 I want to know how I'm getting to 80 on Saturday with a northeast wind which is what my current forecast says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted September 26, 2014 Share Posted September 26, 2014 0.36" rain here on Thursday and 3.84" since July 15th. Normal for that time period is around 10.50" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted September 26, 2014 Share Posted September 26, 2014 Enjoy summer for the next several days....an incredible stretch of gorgeous weather until further notice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted September 26, 2014 Share Posted September 26, 2014 Enjoy summer for the next several days....an incredible stretch of gorgeous weather until further notice If summer equated to the weather over the next several days you would not once hear me complain during the months of June, July and August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 26, 2014 Share Posted September 26, 2014 I would of preferred more rain honestly than "gorgeous summer like weather" because we barely had anything with that system. I also would have been fine with mid 70s for this stretch 80s are a bit much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted September 26, 2014 Share Posted September 26, 2014 Too bad...not sure why you didnt see that underperform like they have the past few months...stop buying the hype Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted September 26, 2014 Share Posted September 26, 2014 Enjoy summer for the next several days....an incredible stretch of gorgeous weather until further notice Yep...gonna soak it in. It's what we mainly had this past August only with shorter day light hours these days. But there is one fly in the ointment, have to watch out for the chance of late night and morning fog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 26, 2014 Share Posted September 26, 2014 Yep...gonna soak it in. It's what we mainly had this past August only with shorter day light hours these days. But there is one fly in the ointment, have to watch out for the chance of late night and morning fog. Basically its San Diego weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
La Bomba Posted September 27, 2014 Share Posted September 27, 2014 Basically its San Diego weather Yep, I'm from San Diego and that has got to be one of the most boring climates on the planet. Low clouds and fog in the morning, clearning afternoon, high of 72, day after day. Nice but boring. A high in the 50s and a rainstorm are a big deal there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted September 27, 2014 Share Posted September 27, 2014 Big slow moving coastal storm on the Euro for next Wednesday. It's been in our general area for several runs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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