CTWeatherFreak Posted July 8, 2014 Share Posted July 8, 2014 Just got 'watched'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 8, 2014 Share Posted July 8, 2014 Looks like Ryan KDP/ZDR separation special on that cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted July 8, 2014 Share Posted July 8, 2014 WOW on that Oneida cell... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 8, 2014 Share Posted July 8, 2014 Tor's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted July 8, 2014 Share Posted July 8, 2014 everything will fizzle out by the time it makes it to C.CT and Mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 8, 2014 Share Posted July 8, 2014 Going to be a nice line rolling east tonight. Don't see any reasons for it to fizzle. Lapse rates look kinda meh but theres instability. 500mb cools, that helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 8, 2014 Author Share Posted July 8, 2014 everything will fizzle out by the time it makes it to C.CT and Mass that's what the HRRR indicates...a definite red flag given how impressive it;s been Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted July 8, 2014 Share Posted July 8, 2014 Going to be a nice line rolling east tonight. Don't see any reasons for it to fizzle. Lapse rates look kinda meh but theres instability. 500mb cools, that helps. never happen....I wish it did, but I don't see it with the current models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 8, 2014 Share Posted July 8, 2014 HRR looks good for all of us https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/486637123408506880 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 8, 2014 Author Share Posted July 8, 2014 HRR looks good for all of us https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/486637123408506880 There are 3 R's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 8, 2014 Share Posted July 8, 2014 never happen....I wish it did, but I don't see it with the current models Looks like things are going linear, line consolidating, some straight line wind possible this evening... Probably light show mostly for new england. Best chances west as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted July 8, 2014 Share Posted July 8, 2014 Looks like things are going linear, line consolidating, some straight line wind possible this evening... Probably light show mostly for new england. Best chances west as usual. true, but I think this vaporizes soon after the Berks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted July 8, 2014 Share Posted July 8, 2014 everything will fizzle out by the time it makes it to C.CT and Mass That may be, but then why were we watched? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted July 8, 2014 Share Posted July 8, 2014 I'm OK with that. Nighttime storms have always been one of my favorite things. Nighttime spinners? Naso much. I'm goods with these storms going linear. The older I get, I think the more I realize that I like discrete cells during the day, intense lines at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 8, 2014 Share Posted July 8, 2014 DC is about to get wind, and a **** ton of rain might as well post their ffw now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 8, 2014 Share Posted July 8, 2014 BTV has issued a SVR Warning that's massive. I'm not sure I've seen one that big before around here. That northern New York warning box is as big as the state of Connecticut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 8, 2014 Share Posted July 8, 2014 I'm OK with that. Nighttime storms have always been one of my favorite things. Nighttime spinners? Naso much. I'm goods with these storms going linear. The older I get, I think the more I realize that I like discrete cells during the day, intense lines at night. Luckily for you, it almost always works out here like that! (linear, discrete) That may be, but then why were we watched? The watch area involves almost half of New England, and is close to what the HRRR suggests. That's a large portion of our area anyhow. I've noticed a tendency for the models to be overzealous with destroying a line. I'm not saying a watch is warranted to the east at all, but its not like we have onshore winds or a ton of cinh east of the watch either. I would bet rain and rumbles to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 8, 2014 Share Posted July 8, 2014 KTYX radar right now is absolutely fascinating... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted July 8, 2014 Share Posted July 8, 2014 BTV has issued a SVR Warning that's massive. I'm not sure I've seen one that big before around here. That northern New York warning box is as big as the state of Connecticut. Might be the biggest I've seen. Might also be the first time I've seen a warning in effect for 87 mins. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NYC019-031-033-089-090015- /O.NEW.KBTV.SV.W.0007.140708T2248Z-140709T0015Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 648 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHERN ESSEX COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK... CLINTON COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK... FRANKLIN COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK... ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK... * UNTIL 815 PM EDT. * AT 644 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THE STORM WAS NEAR LOWVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 75 MPH. * LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO... FOWLER...GOUVERNEUR...WANAKENA...FINE...HORSESHOE LAKE...CRANBERRY LAKE...PIERCEFIELD...TUPPER LAKE...LAKE CLEAR...SARANAC INN...PAUL SMITHS...RAINBOW LAKE...AND LAKE PLACID THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DEADLY LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAIN. WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY...PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING...8 0 2 8 6 3 4 2 7 9...OR SUBMITTING A STORM REPORT AT WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... GET TO SAFETY IMMEDIATELY WHEN THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES. WINDS MAY KNOCK DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES AND DAMAGE BUILDINGS. LARGE HAIL MAY CAUSE INJURY AND DAMAGE PROPERTY. WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. WINDS MAY KNOCK DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES AND DAMAGE BUILDINGS. TAKE COVER NOW. && LAT...LON 4448 7582 4478 7541 4495 7501 4499 7498 4503 7484 4500 7474 4500 7428 4502 7335 4416 7339 4408 7344 4391 7433 4397 7426 4411 7429 4404 7506 4440 7585 TIME...MOT...LOC 2246Z 235DEG 65KT 4380 7549 $$ NEILES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 8, 2014 Share Posted July 8, 2014 KTYX radar right now is absolutely fascinating... Looks like some fairly significant wind on the base 0.5 degree scan just to the N/E of the radar site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 8, 2014 Share Posted July 8, 2014 Might be the biggest I've seen. Might also be the first time I've seen a warning in effect for 87 mins. Must be spooked by that huge area of severe wind right now. Fort Drum, NY getting rocked...45mph sustained, gusting 66mph. Full foliage, you know that's doing some damage. KGTB 082255Z 20039G57KT 1/2SM +RA FG FEW001 OVC025 23/22 A2945 AO2A PK WND 20057/2255 SLP969 WSHFT 2242 SLP969 Watertown/ART also gusting to around 50mph, with 1.3" of rainfall in 1-hour. Wind and flash flooding. KART 082246Z AUTO 26033G43KT 1/2SM +TSRA SQ FEW008 BKN012 OVC030 22/19 A2946 AO2 PK WND 26043/2245 LTG DSNT ALQDS TSB04E21B46 P0110 T02220194 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted July 8, 2014 Share Posted July 8, 2014 Disclaimer, weenie statement. ... If that tor warned cell didn't exist, I'd say that we'd possibly have a derecho on our hands. Those straight line winds look nasty. Not to mention, that meso low that's developing just to the north. . If that cell merges into the line, is it at least a possibility? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted July 8, 2014 Share Posted July 8, 2014 Hope that line holds to Hartford.....on a side note RadarScope just put out an update today....offering lightning data now that animates too....$10/yr subscription.....whatever I bought it.....not bad..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 HRR looks good for all of us https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/486637123408506880 except you forgot the rest of his tweet,If so, best chance would be in Berkshire County/southern VT. Should gradually weaken east of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 Disclaimer, weenie statement. ... If that tor warned cell didn't exist, I'd say that we'd possibly have a derecho on our hands. Those straight line winds look nasty. Not to mention, that meso low that's developing just to the north. . If that cell merges into the line, is it at least a possibility? was thinking the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 was thinking the same250miles in excess of 50 something kts/mph if I remember correctly. . Its doable but the anti derecho-istas will stomp you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 9, 2014 Author Share Posted July 9, 2014 I don't think this would be classified as a "true derecho". Several ingredients missing from what separates actual derechoes from very intense squall lines which produce some areas of significant wind damage. True derechoes are characterized by extreme instability, very steep mid-level lapse rates (typically on the order of 7.5-8 C/KM) associated with an EML, and dewpoints into the lower and mid 70's. What we have today was a moderately unstable environment thanks to a hot and extremely moist low-level airmass all under the presence of very strong deep layer shear. The degree of instability in place was more than enough given the degree of shear in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 Thanks for the buzzkill, wiz. Hopefully this thing holds together. ... Just a few more hours. Come to Papa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 Wind velocities seem to be diminishing as the line approaches the Champlain Valley. Will be interesting to see if this can keep any severe characteristics as it moves into New England. Seems to be losing its punch as that meso-low moves into Canada and we are losing daytime heating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 Well we will see what happens... BTV just issued another massive Warning that covers like 6 whole counties, in effect for the next hour. The last paragraph is interesting. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 843 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... LAMOILLE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VERMONT... WASHINGTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL VERMONT... GRAND ISLE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VERMONT... EASTERN ESSEX COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK... EASTERN CLINTON COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK... CHITTENDEN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VERMONT... ADDISON COUNTY IN CENTRAL VERMONT... FRANKLIN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VERMONT... * UNTIL 945 PM EDT. * AT 836 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THESE SEVERE STORMS EXTENDED FROM MOOERS TO WILLSBORO POINT TO PHAROAH MOUNTAIN...AND WERE MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. * LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO... TICONDEROGA...BURLINGTON...ROUSES POINT...WILLISTON... WESTFORD...LINCOLN...UNDERHILL...LAKE CARMI STATE PARK...WATERBURY...ROXBURY...EAST MONTPELIER...NORTHFIELD FALLS. THIS LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DEADLY LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAIN. BOATERS ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR NOW! STRONG WINDS WILL CAUSE HIGHER WAVES AND SUDDEN WIND SHIFTS MAY OVERTURN BOATS. ***WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS MAY KNOCK DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES AND DAMAGE BUILDINGS. TAKE COVER NOW.*** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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