IsentropicLift Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Yeah I think no matter how you cut it, this is a 2.5" to 5" widespread rainfall across much of our area. For most, I'm thinking 3.5" to 4.5" Sent from my iPhone That's a pretty good call. Upton lowered amounts a tad to a basin average ~3.00". My thinking is ~4.00" NW of NYC and SW of NYC and 2-3.00" east of NYC and NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 That's a pretty good call. Upton lowered amounts a tad to a basin average ~3.00". My thinking is ~4.00" NW of NYC and SW of NYC and 2-3.00" east of NYC and NE. I remember the last major rain event, models were calling for 3-5" and as we got closer to the event, lowered the qpf to 2-3" or even lower....and most of us ended up verifying with the original model amounts of 3-5". I guess they don't factor in too much of the precip enhancement, although the short range meso models do much betterSent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 I remember the last major rain event, models were calling for 3-5" and as we got closer to the event, lowered the qpf to 2-3" or even lower....and most of us ended up verifying with the original model amounts of 3-5". I guess they don't factor in too much of the precip enhancement, although the short range meso models do much better Sent from my iPhone Well WPC is still going with widespread 3"+. If some of the higher res short term models are correct, it will come down in buckets tomorrow morning and then again tomorrow evening. The 4k NAM has most areas already ~1.50" by lunchtime tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Yeah I think no matter how you cut it, this is a 2.5" to 5" widespread rainfall across much of our area. For most, I'm thinking 3.5" to 4.5" Sent from my iPhone Models seem to be having the heaviest rainfall area in an axis from N NJ to around the DC area. That's where it seems to train over the longest. East of there may only have heavy rain when the front passes. I think from the city east there's a decent bust potential, if the heaviest rain is confined for much of the event west of the city, there might only be 1-2" rather than the 3-4" advertised now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Well WPC is still going with widespread 3"+. If some of the higher res short term models are correct, it will come down in buckets tomorrow morning and then again tomorrow evening. The 4k NAM has most areas already ~1.50" by lunchtime tomorrow. Hopefully they can get the game in tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Models seem to be having the heaviest rainfall area in an axis from N NJ to around the DC area. That's where it seems to train over the longest. East of there may only have heavy rain when the front passes. I think from the city east there's a decent bust potential, if the heaviest rain is confined for much of the event west of the city, there might only be 1-2" rather than the 3-4" advertised now. Nothing for nothing but nobody cares if Manhattan has 3" of rain. It's not going to be anything more than a nuisance rain for them. It matters a lot more in places that are vulnerable to flooding and flash flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Hopefully they can get the game in tonight They will force the issue since tomorrow is most certainly not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 They will force the issue since tomorrow is most certainly not happening. I think they should get the game in tonight, but Sabathia is pitching and he always seems to get rained on Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 The 12z ECMWF ensemble mean was ~2.40" for NYC. So 2-3" of rain with spots ~4.00" is a good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 I think they should get the game in tonight, but Sabathia is pitching and he always seems to get rained on Sent from my iPhone The rain near Lancaster looks moderate. Will have to see if it holds together. Also they usually won't start a game in the rain as opposed to starting before light rain hits and then playing through it. Either way a miserable raw night is on tap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC Weather Lover Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 I don't care for Mr. G, but I just heard him said some of the activity on Wednesday night could be on the severe side. Does anybody else here think so? I for one, don't, but I just thought I'd get somebody else's opinion. Then again, maybe I heard him wrong, but I'm pretty sure that's what he said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 I don't care for Mr. G, but I just heard him said some of the activity on Wednesday night could be on the severe side. Does anybody else here think so? I for one, don't, but I just thought I'd get somebody else's opinion. Then again, maybe I heard him wrong, but I'm pretty sure that's what he said.Severe looks unlikely but possible. SPC had us in day 3 see text. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 I think they should get the game in tonight, but Sabathia is pitching and he always seems to get rained on Sent from my iPhone Well they got the game in lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Well they got the game in lol Yep...and Brian Roberts covered first base like virga...disappointing game ! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Anyone have links to the coastal flood gauges? Here in the south shore the water is up fairly high. A little more than I even thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Anyone have links to the coastal flood gauges? Here in the south shore the water is up fairly high. A little more than I even thought. I took this photo around 850 tonight. It was even higher around 930. http://oi60.tinypic.com/24gu8hx.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 I took this photo around 850 tonight. It was even higher around 930. http://oi60.tinypic.com/24gu8hx.jpg Tried to take a pic but it was too dark. Water in the streets in the typical spots. Although the water was almost nearing the "moderate" flood stage- at least using my unscientific eyeball test of saying "when the water reaches this spot on the street, it's moderate flooding" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Tried to take a pic but it was too dark. Water in the streets in the typical spots. Although the water was almost nearing the "moderate" flood stage- at least using my unscientific eyeball test of saying "when the water reaches this spot on the street, it's moderate flooding" The bays around Long Beach looked quite high tonight and choppy. Tomorrow I'm sure it will be even higher with the east wind continuing to pile in water. I'm sure the usual spots like Freeport will have problems. Maybe even parts of Island Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Daily precipitation 0.08"..42°, cloudy skies.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 This slug of rain about to rotate through is fairly moderate to heavy. Capable of dumping a good inch. The NAM had this slug missing to our northwest. Clearly that was wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 00z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 :flood: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Upton going with 4 in. storm totals around city... nam,gfs and euro really only show about half that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Upton said in AFD that the models are verifying way too dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 The bays around Long Beach looked quite high tonight and choppy. Tomorrow I'm sure it will be even higher with the east wind continuing to pile in water. I'm sure the usual spots like Freeport will have problems. Maybe even parts of Island Park. Freeport always has minor flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Freeport always has minor flooding. Yep, as well as broad channel, Hamilton beach, etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 30, 2014 Author Share Posted April 30, 2014 The wildcard is where the surface based convection sets up tomorrow after the warm front moves through late tonight. Any storms that can initiate tomorrow would be falling on saturated ground. Also note how steep the mid-level lapse rates are going to be like we have been seeing this year so far. JFK 12z Thursday Precipitable water: 1.56 inches700-500 lapse rate: 7.03 C/kmCap Strength: 2.22 CLifted Index: -0.54 C Showalter Index: -2.29 C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 12z RAP - Only through 18 hours (With more rain to come) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Off Topic: where on the NWS site is the projected rainfall totals? I can not seem to find it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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