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famartin

Medium/Long Range thread

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It is interesting that the GFS for the past two runs (and even prior to them) has shown a system around Xmas eve/Xmas. Also that the EURO has this idea as well. Sure would be nice to have a true white Xmas around here.

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It is interesting that the GFS for the past two runs (and even prior to them) has shown a system around Xmas eve/Xmas. Also that the EURO has this idea as well. Sure would be nice to have a true white Xmas around here.

 

Yes, it would....although for starters it's nice to see the pattern trending this way for that time frame and beyond. I like it.

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While the GFS has the NAO headed for negative in the long term, the PNA and AO don't look so hot. Add the MJO entering the COD and I'm not seeing the hype.

 

My Christmas wish is that HM would interject some clarity into the subject, but haven't heard from him in a while. Happy holidays wherever you are.

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While the GFS has the NAO headed for negative in the long term, the PNA and AO don't look so hot. Add the MJO entering the COD and I'm not seeing the hype.

 

My Christmas wish is that HM would interject some clarity into the subject, but haven't heard from him in a while. Happy holidays wherever you are.

He is on Twitter and his tweets are often shared on phillywx.com

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 that   analysis is  not   correct 

 

While the GFS has the NAO headed for negative in the long term, the PNA and AO don't look so hot. Add the MJO entering the COD and I'm not seeing the hype.

 

My Christmas wish is that HM would interject some clarity into the subject, but haven't heard from him in a while. Happy holidays wherever you are.

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dYNAMIC MJO progs suck. They'll get affected by the interference between Kelvin and MJO waves which can cause a false reading of the MJO into the COD.

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 that   analysis is  not   correct 

Okie dokie - didn't expect the heavy weights to chime into this lonely forum lol, but I'll read through your analysis. Glad to spark some debate anyway. How do the Kelvin waves interfere with the dynamic model forecasts?

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0Z shows a cutter that looks to re develop along the coast. Still looking like a possibility come Xmas/Xmas Eve. The system is still there with details to follow.

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Consensus of euro weeklies and teleconnections seem to imply a cold, dry start to the new year. May have to wait for a decaying pattern afterwards for some action. In the interim GFS and Euro show a building SE ridge.

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12z ECM has cold moving in Christmas Eve and snow flurries Christmas day. Not too bad.

 

I'll take it too...even if it is the Euro, lolz.

That would be fitting, last year we had flurries on Christmas eve, a dusting the day after, and the year before almost an inch here Christmas eve.

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Major blocking pattern setting up towards the end of 2014 into early 2015. Couple this with a SE Ridge that looks to establish plus an active southern jet and the players are on the field for a winter storm to take aim at us somewhere between 12/27-1/5. I know that's a wide range of days but with all the disturbances moving thru its tough this far out to determine which will produce but the progs suggest at least one of these develops into our first 'widespread' snow of the season somewhere during that period. WOOF on the pattern developing!

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Nothing on the 6-10 day range.  Hope this trend changes.

 

I am focused on the the end of the month.

Next 5-10 days look like garbage. hopefully something pops moving into 2015.

Had a high today of 26F with very lite snow flurries most of the day.

Decent winter day. No fun tracking a rain storm at the end of December though.

Mountain Creek in blowing snow hard today(local ski mountain). told the wife next week looks brutal for them :axe:

Last year winter ended for me the 2nd week of February. Hopefully this year winter start the 2nd week of January with heavy heavy snows.

Reality is that we have had some decent winters recently. We can't expect 40 + inches of snow every year

 

Best

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The GFS runs are pretty brutal. We don't seem to go above freezing starting somewhere on December 30th according to the GFS. The ECMWF does brings in some pretty harsh cold too, with night time temperatures getting as low as the high temperatures of last January. 

 

gfs_T2m_us_39.png

ecmwf_T850a_us_10.png

 

Lookin' forward to this New Year's Day.

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75870e112d0a85005595c286115d273c.png

 

Para GFS gives us a weenie run with a snowstorm on December 30-31st. 

 

Hmm, lots of people on this thread and the Mid Atlantic thread giving up on this winter. I personally don't think our chances of a good winter are really that bad. I think SantaBomb is ruining everybody. Everybody was so excited for the 12/21/14 "storm", also having people get hyped for the pattern change. Once the models flipped the switch, people's inner weenie-mobile is making people get all depressed. The pattern change is comin', just don't let a big rainstorm on Christmas Eve be the signal for this winter. 

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Para GFS gives us a weenie run with a snowstorm on December 30-31st. 

 

Hmm, lots of people on this thread and the Mid Atlantic thread giving up on this winter. I personally don't think our chances of a good winter are really that bad. I think SantaBomb is ruining everybody. Everybody was so excited for the 12/21/14 "storm", also having people get hyped for the pattern change. Once the models flipped the switch, people's inner weenie-mobile is making people get all depressed. The pattern change is comin', just don't let a big rainstorm on Christmas Eve be the signal for this winter. 

 

I think what's causing most of the angst at this point is the idea that the long awaited pattern change might be short-lived. If that turns out to be the case, one or two solid snows (3-6"+) while it's cold enough would make a January thaw for a week or two afterwards easier to take.

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I think what's causing most of the angst at this point is the idea that the long awaited pattern change might be short-lived. If that turns out to be the case, one or two solid snows (3-6"+) while it's cold enough would make a January thaw for a week or two afterwards easier to take.

Agree with this assessment.   Frustrating to see the cold/snow get delayed and delayed only to then immediately see another warmup on the long range keeping the switch to colder short-lived.

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Agree with this assessment.   Frustrating to see the cold/snow get delayed and delayed only to then immediately see another warmup on the long range keeping the switch to colder short-lived.

One thing to remember the long range models have been horrible so anything beyond new years is just wait and see.

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