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Medium/Long Range thread


famartin

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8-10 day 500mb mean doesn't look that cold to me.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMCNA_12z/hgtcomp.html

Its near normal....the epo ridge that just cant produce. Never seen anything like it. The SE Ridge just wont budge. That feature plus the pac firehose are gonna be the themes of this winter. If this epo ridge doesnt produce before it breaks down, this winter is going to be a dud. I know folks dont want to hear it but someone has to bear the news.
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Just to give some perspective - last year temps in Northern Canada were approaching 50 below in the night at this time. This year they are struggling to get to 35 below. Simple math - 15 degree difference in any dip in the northern jet that would bring in a cold shot. One worry is an overrunning event that would bring heavy icing and sleet. 

 

Happy holidays to all

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A little fun to see how likely the pattern is to change... first list is all winters where PHL failed to reach 1 inch by the end of December for the seasonal total.  Second list is same subset with winters where ABE failed to reach 4 inches removed (in other words, winters where PHL proper started out screwed while the NW burbs weren't).  Not a lot of value here, just an idea of how likely the pattern is to make a change to a snowier one based on past precedent.

Season    PHL by 12/31      PHL Season1885-1886          0.1            20.4            1888-1889          0.5             6.2            1889-1890            T             7.4            1891-1892            T            19.9            1895-1896          0.5            14.8            1899-1900          0.5            20.6            1906-1907          0.3            38.6            1913-1914            T            34.2            1918-1919            T             4.5            1920-1921          0.8            13.7            1924-1925          0.2            16.5           1934-1935            T            28.9            1936-1937          0.4            13.8            1937-1938            T             8.5             1941-1942            0             9.8            1943-1944            0            15.7            1946-1947            T            23.7            1949-1950            T             2.0            1954-1955            T            12.1            1956-1957          0.2             7.9            1958-1959          0.3             5.1            1965-1966            T            27.4            1971-1972          0.1            12.2            1972-1973            T               T             1974-1975          0.8            13.6           1977-1978          0.4            54.9            1983-1984          0.8            21.6           1984-1985          0.2            16.5            1986-1987          0.4            25.7            1988-1989          0.4            11.2           1991-1992            T             4.7           1992-1993            T            24.3          1993-1994          0.9            23.1           1994-1995            T             9.8           1996-1997            T            12.9           1997-1998          0.2             0.8            1999-2000            T            21.0            2001-2002            0             4.0          2004-2005          0.4            30.4           2006-2007            T            13.4          2011-2012          0.3             4.0          2012-2013          0.4             8.3          Season    PHL by 12/31    ABE by 12/31    PHL Season      ABE Season1936-1937          0.4             4.5          13.8            23.11958-1959          0.3             5.3           5.1            23.51971-1972          0.1             7.5          12.2            28.61972-1973            T             4.3             T             7.41977-1978          0.4             6.4          54.9            55.61983-1984          0.8             5.0          21.6            34.31984-1985          0.2             5.7          16.5            24.22011-2012          0.3             6.8           4.0            12.02012-2013          0.4             7.6           8.3            21.4
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A little fun to see how likely the pattern is to change... first list is all winters where PHL failed to reach 1 inch by the end of December for the seasonal total.  Second list is same subset with winters where ABE failed to reach 4 inches removed (in other words, winters where PHL proper started out screwed while the NW burbs weren't).  Not a lot of value here, just an idea of how likely the pattern is to make a change to a snowier one based on past precedent.

Season    PHL by 12/31      PHL Season1885-1886          0.1            20.4            1888-1889          0.5             6.2            1889-1890            T             7.4            1891-1892            T            19.9            1895-1896          0.5            14.8            1899-1900          0.5            20.6            1906-1907          0.3            38.6            1913-1914            T            34.2            1918-1919            T             4.5            1920-1921          0.8            13.7            1924-1925          0.2            16.5           1934-1935            T            28.9            1936-1937          0.4            13.8            1937-1938            T             8.5             1941-1942            0             9.8            1943-1944            0            15.7            1946-1947            T            23.7            1949-1950            T             2.0            1954-1955            T            12.1            1956-1957          0.2             7.9            1958-1959          0.3             5.1            1965-1966            T            27.4            1971-1972          0.1            12.2            1972-1973            T               T             1974-1975          0.8            13.6           1977-1978          0.4            54.9            1983-1984          0.8            21.6           1984-1985          0.2            16.5            1986-1987          0.4            25.7            1988-1989          0.4            11.2           1991-1992            T             4.7           1992-1993            T            24.3          1993-1994          0.9            23.1           1994-1995            T             9.8           1996-1997            T            12.9           1997-1998          0.2             0.8            1999-2000            T            21.0            2001-2002            0             4.0          2004-2005          0.4            30.4           2006-2007            T            13.4          2011-2012          0.3             4.0          2012-2013          0.4             8.3          Season    PHL by 12/31    ABE by 12/31    PHL Season      ABE Season1936-1937          0.4             4.5          13.8            23.11958-1959          0.3             5.3           5.1            23.51971-1972          0.1             7.5          12.2            28.61972-1973            T             4.3             T             7.41977-1978          0.4             6.4          54.9            55.61983-1984          0.8             5.0          21.6            34.31984-1985          0.2             5.7          16.5            24.22011-2012          0.3             6.8           4.0            12.02012-2013          0.4             7.6           8.3            21.4

Below are the years I think our winter of 2014-2015 will mirror as reported at Philadelphia International Airport at this point today.  The main reason I selected these years was for the occurrence of snowfall to be near normal which is where I think we may be headed.  Now in these years all except the nickle and dime year 1993-1994 we had one big storm that dropped most of the snow; most notably Feb. 1983 which was a snow lovers dream.

 

I am very much still hoping for an above normal year but I will temper my expectations for now.

 

Another thing about the years I have selected like many years around here most if not all of our snow fell in Later January to Mid March which is most common.

 

1885-1886 0.1 20.4 >>>>Feb 3-4th biggest storm that year 9.3" temps were cold with the exception of the beginning of the year.

 

1891-1892 T 19.9 >>>>> Jan 15th biggest storm that year 5.0" temps were up and down noteworthy 7.5" during 3 days 3/16-3/18

 

1899-1900 0.5 20.6>>>>> Feb. 16-17 11.3" biggest storm that year 3/15 5.2" a warm year overall

 

1946-1947 T 23.7 >>>>>> Feb. 20 10.6" biggest storm that year

 

1983-1984 0.8 21.6 >>>>>> Feb. 11-12 21.3" biggest storm that year two days later at night 3 for a low (I remember Jim Obien and this One)

 

1993-1994 0.9 23.1>>>>>>> Nickel and Dime with snow events 5.6" larges event

 

1999-2000 T 21.0 >>>>>>>> Jan. 25 8.5" biggest storm that year temps up and down.

 

Thanks Ray for posting this.  It will be interesting to see where we will ultimately head to be truly honest I am standing at the ledge of 50/50 for an above average snowfall year.  We have certainly come to a cross roads this morning.

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I don't think it's false hope to put slightly more stock in this long range threat considering we have actual genuine cold high pressure galore to the north and the pattern has shifted. My concern is a sheared out wave that never organizes and not a cutter.

Wes in the MA forum says this wont shear out or be suppressed due to the AO/NAO phase. I respect his opinion but I disagree since there is a PV sitting to our North which shouldn't allow this to cut or come too far North.

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The 18z GFS develops a decent coastal out of a clipper system 1/7... It's fantasy at this range I know but I'm desperate here!

 

Anyone see any potential for snow after the 1/4 cutter?

+NAO that storm is outta here..... now if there were blocking with a -NAO maybe that storm slows down and develops quick enough to give us a decent shot of snow off the Atlantic with decent cold available.....

 

We really have to have this pattern to slow down and lock the cold air in off a +PNA, -AO and sustained -NAO to get the snowstorm we are looking for.  

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What do the pros on here think about a potential event for next weekend? The GFS seems to want to set up a decent moderate event for next weekend and its been trending colder. The GFS has been doing pretty well in this pattern so maybe, possibly?

Its mildly intresting. I think cold enough air could hang on a little longer than the models have it. Perhaps a miller B with mix to rain. Similar to what we just saw would be a concern, the slower the mid level energy is to eject out of the southwest the better chance for a warmup before this system.
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This winter is back ON, fun *potential* all over it next week

Love it!! Bring it on clearly see the Cold Air taking up residence in the Midwest and East and more importantly in Southeastern Canada setting up the likely hood of a large cold high pressure system..... come STJ Come Now!! Just hope the cold can lock in at all levels otherwise ice storm fears and concerns for some next week?
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