Yellow Evan Posted August 24, 2014 Author Share Posted August 24, 2014 Yeah, the EPAC MDR SST's have been the highest on record for the satellite era this summer according to NCEP Renanalysis. SST.png Wow. Thanks for the graphic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 25, 2014 Author Share Posted August 25, 2014 Fun's over. Marie down to Cat 4 again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 Marie went from 1000 mb to 918 mb (at it's strongest) in 48 hrs...from 979 mb to 918 mb in 24 hrs....and from 971 mb to 944 mb in 6 hrs. http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/eastern-pacific/2014/Hurricane-Marie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 SRSO 1-min scans: Editable loop, change number at end to show more images (yay HTML5!): http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/templates/loop_directory.asp?data_folder=dev/lindsey/loops/goes14&image_width=1020&image_height=720&number_of_images_to_display=500 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 26, 2014 Author Share Posted August 26, 2014 Karina refuses to quit while Marie down to Cat 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 Skeletal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 From the NHC: Karina is now the seventh-longest-lasting tropical cyclone in theeastern North Pacific basin during the satellite era. What a long strange ride its been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 28, 2014 Author Share Posted August 28, 2014 Marie down to TS. EPAC looking quiet for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxtrackercody Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 Finally a break in activity as the strongest convectively-suppressed kelvin wave of the season progresses across the basin. Season-to-date ACE is up to 100 units in the EPAC and 25 units in the CPAC; the latter total is the highest seasonal total in at least over a decade (I haven't calculated prior to 2004 yet). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 The first half of September looks to be below average climatologically (for this time of year) in the EPAC. Normally at least two systems form September 1-15. This slower-than-average peak season is quite unusual for such an otherwise-above-average/intense season in other respects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 30, 2014 Author Share Posted August 30, 2014 The first half of September looks to be below average climatologically (for this time of year) in the EPAC. Normally at least two systems form September 1-15. This slower-than-average peak season is quite unusual for such an otherwise-above-average/intense season in other respects. The EPAC peak is very long. It usually has spurts of inactivity followed by epic stretches of high activity. Even 1992 had this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted September 1, 2014 Author Share Posted September 1, 2014 New lemon. NOGAPS and HWRF have this becoming a hurricane near Baja. Euro shows this, but GFS does not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted September 2, 2014 Author Share Posted September 2, 2014 Now a cherry. Models bring this into Central Baja. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 1NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014800 AM PDT TUE SEP 02 2014The area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles southwestof Manzanillo now has enough organized convection to be considered atropical cyclone. Although moderate northeasterly shear is present,banding features are in the southern semicircle of the cyclone alongwith bursts of convection near the center. The initial wind speedis set to 35 kt in accordance with earlier ASCAT data.Norbert has been moving toward the north-northeast or 020/12.Almost all of the guidance show Norbert turning sharply northwardand west-northwestward within 24 hours due to the cyclone leavingthe ITCZ and becoming steered by a mid-level high over Mexico. TheNHC prediction during this time is on the right side of the guidanceenvelope, mostly because of the initial motion. After that time,there is some uncertainty in the strength of the ridge overnorthwestern Mexico, which causes some spread in the model tracks ofNorbert while it approaches the southern Baja California peninsula.While the NHC forecast is close to the model consensus after 24hours, it would not be surprising to see later forecasts beadjusted a bit to the north at longer range, given model trends.The environment near Norbert seems mostly favorable forstrengthening during the next few days with the cyclone forecastover warm waters with moderate shear. Given this environment, itis a little surprising that none of the more reliable models makesNorbert a hurricane. Since there is some possibility of landinteraction and higher shear, the NHC prediction will be a littleabove the model consensus, but below the highest guidance.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 02/1500Z 17.5N 106.5W 35 KT 40 MPH12H 03/0000Z 18.6N 107.0W 40 KT 45 MPH24H 03/1200Z 19.3N 108.4W 45 KT 50 MPH36H 04/0000Z 19.6N 109.6W 50 KT 60 MPH48H 04/1200Z 20.1N 110.5W 50 KT 60 MPH72H 05/1200Z 21.8N 112.8W 50 KT 60 MPH96H 06/1200Z 23.0N 115.5W 45 KT 50 MPH120H 07/1200Z 23.5N 117.5W 40 KT 45 MPH$$Forecaster Blake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted September 3, 2014 Author Share Posted September 3, 2014 Norbert 40 knts. Track was far left, now has shifted right. Currently a TS watch is up for Baja, but a TS warning may be needed soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxtrackercody Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 Tropical Storm Norbert is approaching hurricane intensity this morning, with a transient eye on infrared satellite: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 Norbert certainly looks impressive this morning. The latest track guidance suggests a brush of the Baja Peninsula. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 Is that a pinhole eye? Latest DVORAK estimates are up to 67.4kts and pressure down to 982.4mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 Is that a pinhole eye? Latest DVORAK estimates are up to 67.4kts and pressure down to 982.4mb No, just tops of hot towers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 First decent MW pass in a while seems to indicate a very intense yet very small core under the CDO (which has tops of -85C) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 It seems Norbert would at least provide some rain for southern CA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted September 6, 2014 Author Share Posted September 6, 2014 Norbert currently a Cat 2 as it remains just offshore the Cabo San Larzo and Puerto San Carlos area. Same places that Jimena 09 affected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 T numbers up to a 5.5/5.5 as the eye warms and cloud tops in the eastern semicircle continue to cool. Decent chance this makes it to a Category 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 It seems Norbert would at least provide some rain for southern CA Eh..I'd bet strongly against much of anything at this point other than some extra clouds. Looks like he'll be slowing down dramatically as he moves north, and over the much cooler waters near Northern Baja.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted September 6, 2014 Author Share Posted September 6, 2014 Eh..I'd bet strongly against much of anything at this point other than some extra clouds. Looks like he'll be slowing down dramatically as he moves north, and over the much cooler waters near Northern Baja.... Models still show some mid to upper level moisture making it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted September 6, 2014 Author Share Posted September 6, 2014 ATCF has this at 95 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxtrackercody Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Norbert is very near major hurricane intensity, if it hasn't already attained it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Norbert is very near major hurricane intensity, if it hasn't already attained it. Should be a cat 3 on the 11pm PDT advisory if it can maintain that structure. The East Pac has just been absolutely prolific this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 From Josh, here are the major hurricane hits since 1957: No. 10 (22 Oct) - Sinaloa - Cat 4 (120 kt) 1959 Great Mexico Hurricane (27 Oct) - Jalisco - Cat 5 (140 kt) 1967 Olivia (14 Oct) - Baja California Sur - Cat 3 (110 kt) 1975 Olivia (25 Oct) - Sinaloa - Cat 3 (100 kt) 1976 Liza (01 Oct) - Sinaloa - Cat 3 (~100 kt) 1976 Madeline (08 Oct) - Guerrero - Cat 4 (125 kt) 1983 Tico (19 Oct) - Sinaloa - Cat 3 (110 kt) 1989 Kiko (27 Aug) - Baja California Sur - Cat 3 (960 mb/100 kt) 2002 Kenna (25 Oct) - Nayarit - Cat 4 (950 mb/120 kt) 2006 Lane (16 Sep) - Sinaloa - Cat 3 (954 mb/110 kt) So hit dates were as follows: 8/27, 9/16, 10/1, 10/8, 10/14, 10/19, 10/22, 10/25, 10/25, 10/27 As Josh mentioned, real strongest (cat. 4-5) hit mainly in late Oct.: 10/8, 10/22, 10/25, 10/27 Oncoming weak to moderate Ninos actually are the ENSO state since 1949 that has been the most favorable for the major MX hits (Liza, Madeline, Kenna, and Lane). 1957's #10 hit during an oncoming strong El Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted September 6, 2014 Author Share Posted September 6, 2014 From Josh, here are the major hurricane hits since 1957: No. 10 (22 Oct) - Sinaloa - Cat 4 (120 kt) 1959 Great Mexico Hurricane (27 Oct) - Jalisco - Cat 5 (140 kt) 1967 Olivia (14 Oct) - Baja California Sur - Cat 3 (110 kt) 1975 Olivia (25 Oct) - Sinaloa - Cat 3 (100 kt) 1976 Liza (01 Oct) - Sinaloa - Cat 3 (~100 kt) 1976 Madeline (08 Oct) - Guerrero - Cat 4 (125 kt) 1983 Tico (19 Oct) - Sinaloa - Cat 3 (110 kt) 1989 Kiko (27 Aug) - Baja California Sur - Cat 3 (960 mb/100 kt) 2002 Kenna (25 Oct) - Nayarit - Cat 4 (950 mb/120 kt) 2006 Lane (16 Sep) - Sinaloa - Cat 3 (954 mb/110 kt) So hit dates were as follows: 8/27, 9/16, 10/1, 10/8, 10/14, 10/19, 10/22, 10/25, 10/25, 10/27 As Josh mentioned, real strongest (cat. 4-5) hit mainly in late Oct.: 10/8, 10/22, 10/25, 10/27 Oncoming weak to moderate Ninos actually are the ENSO state since 1949 that has been the most favorable for the major MX hits (Liza, Madeline, Kenna, and Lane). 1957's #10 hit during an oncoming strong El Nino. I'm not expecting a major landfall from this. But worth noting as we hit October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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