mob1 Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 On a local scale, always... But on a global scale the changes have been more significant than the normal changes. I understand that the article is more of an educated guess as opposed to undeniable truth but it has some credence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 again, those who disagree can refute the points in the journal article at any time. i'm waiting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 again, those who disagree can refute the points in the journal article at any time. i'm waiting "In the winter of 2013–2014, California experienced drought conditions that came close to eclipsing the severe drought of 1976–1977 " The only correlation drought wise i can come up with is a COLD MEI . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 The idea that all anomalies at this point are caused by climate change is becoming pretty absurd. We've had cold, snowy winters many times in the past and will again despite climate change. Everything and anything is being blamed on it now and all it does is make people apathetic to it even more. exactly-every extreme event is somehow correlated to climate change/global warming)-Sandy,Katrina, Feb 13 Blizzard, July 2013 heat, the list goes on and on. When does climate not change ? True...do folks really expect the climate regime from 1900-2000 to stay exactly the same forever and that it's the optimal climate and any change from that status quo is always going to be catastrophic? Earth's climate has shifted over its history sometimes quite radically in a short period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 Brian, you're still not refuting the reasoning in the article. Just because some people cry wolf doesn't mean that you shouldn't look at the article subjectively. Could this have happened before "global warming"? Sure! That still doesn't change the fact that there's one person with his head in the sand for every so called " alarmist". P.S. I can't reply directly to a poster from my phone for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 There were plenty of months with more negative EPO's over the past several decades when we examine the data. The most impressive standard deviation that I see for winter 2013-14 is March's +1.24 (which is actually the opposite modality). We've seen months, like June of 1969 for example, with +3.2 standard deviation, +2.2 in late 1976 and +2.8 in early 1978. The winters of 1977-78 and 1978-79 had just as if not more anomalous height patterns either over Alaska or the NPAC in terms of the mid level ridging. The EPO ridges were generally more intense but less expansive in the East pacific than 2013-14. 2013-14:: 1978-79:: 1977-78:: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Close-up of Jan 1978's intense -EPO AK ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 The idea that all anomalies at this point are caused by climate change is becoming pretty absurd. We've had cold, snowy winters many times in the past and will again despite climate change. Everything and anything is being blamed on it now and all it does is make people apathetic to it even more. Its shoved down everyone's throat to push a political agenda. Reality probably lies somewhere in the middle as always. Every anomaly in weather being portrayed as climate change is just fear mongering. That approach prays on people who are not very familiar with the weather world Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=312ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_312_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140611+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 11, 2014 Author Share Posted June 11, 2014 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=312ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_312_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140611+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area With the low near the benchmark, the snow will be deeper than the beaches come Hour 324. Bring it on!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 My favorite misinformed comment during the winter season is that cold periods will make it less likely for the coast to change to rain during a coastal storm. The key is that the cold anticyclone remains more or less in place...it can retreat a little but not too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Last year was a double edged sword. We did manage to pull off a lot of nickel and dime events and even a few quarters, but I still never got my PDII redux despite numerous great over running setups. Last winter was extremely snowy and any snow lover who was dissatisfied with it has The Fisherman's Wife mentality... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Exactly William. He has the expectations of Utah skiers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Last winter was extremely snowy and any snow lover who was dissatisfied with it has The Fisherman's Wife mentality... Last winter was a good winter but it definitely favored areas closer to the coast and further south. It's always relative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Last winter was a good winter but it definitely favored areas closer to the coast and further south. It's always relative. I think if you total up most of the surrounding areas snowfall was in the top 10 .That qualifies as great not good. U live at 40/70 very hard to pull last year off. Complete anomaly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 11, 2014 Author Share Posted June 11, 2014 Last winter was a good winter but it definitely favored areas closer to the coast and further south. It's always relative. You had plenty of sizable events where you are. The storm around 12/20 was a few inches of slop for me then 45 degree rain but over a half foot of snow then ice for you. 2/13/14 was 7" of slop/mush and plenty of rain/sleet for me but probably a foot and a half for you if not more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 You had plenty of sizable events where you are. The storm around 12/20 was a few inches of slop for me then 45 degree rain but over a half foot of snow then ice for you. 2/13/14 was 7" of slop/mush and plenty of rain/sleet for me but probably a foot and a half for you if not more. I recall him saying he had a snowpack of like 3 feet after that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 11, 2014 Author Share Posted June 11, 2014 I recall him saying he had a snowpack of like 3 feet after that storm. The deepest snowpack I ever had was close to 18 inches (still very impressive for this area regardless, but to say "the coast was favored" last winter is just wrong). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Tornado watch up for PA/MD and a tornado warning in VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 I recall him saying he had a snowpack of like 3 feet after that storm. It was a good winter but lacked a long duration 18"+ storm that for me would have put it into the next category. It's not that unusual for my area to have a constant snowpack from January until the end of February. We had a lot of moderate events that kept replenishing what was melting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 It's not that unusual for my area to have a constant snowpack from January until the end of February. I'd guess the town of Pompton Plains has an average annual snowfall in the vicinity of 35 inches...the Wiki article gives the town an elevation of around 200 feet a.s.l...you can probably tack on another inch per average year for every 75 foot increase in elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 I'd guess the town of Pompton Plains has an average annual snowfall in the vicinity of 35 inches...the Wiki article gives the town an elevation of around 200 feet a.s.l...you can probably tack on another inch per average year for every 75 foot increase in elevation. The Charlotteburg Resorvoir...for example...several miles NW up Route 23 has an average annual snowfall of about 43 inches...but the elevation there is close to 760 feet a.s.l. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 I'd guess the town of Pompton Plains has an average annual snowfall in the vicinity of 35 inches...the Wiki article gives the town an elevation of around 200 feet a.s.l...you can probably tack on another inch per average year for every 75 foot increase in elevation.Like all places around here more frequent snow events help sustain snowpack longer. Two of the past four winters have had nearly constant snow cover from January through the end of February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 BTW my sister just bought a condo in Smithtown. Newly appointed Suffolk County ADA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 The deepest snowpack I ever had was close to 18 inches (still very impressive for this area regardless, but to say "the coast was favored" last winter is just wrong). The coast was far from favored. In fact the best combo of deep snowpack/high totals was right through his area of interior NNJ. Anyone southeast of Sussex/Passaic Counties is simply forbidden to call last winter anything worse than "great". It was a great to excellent winter virtually areawide. 18"+ snowstorms on average occur once every several years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 Plus everyone on this board is in a sub tropical climate except for William and I, so no one really has a right to complain about last winter. That was once in a lifetime type stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 12, 2014 Author Share Posted June 12, 2014 The coast was far from favored. In fact the best combo of deep snowpack/high totals was right through his area of interior NNJ. Anyone southeast of Sussex/Passaic Counties is simply forbidden to call last winter anything worse than "great". It was a great to excellent winter virtually areawide. 18"+ snowstorms on average occur once every several years. I definitely thought it as a very nice winter, but some of the storms were downright frustrating, especially 2/13/14. That was just brutal when 10 miles away was snowing for hours after I flipped to rain. But the snowpack and longevity of it was some of the most impressive I've seen for where I live. 10-11 had more snow where I am but the snowpack could never last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 There were plenty of months with more negative EPO's over the past several decades when we examine the data. The most impressive standard deviation that I see for winter 2013-14 is March's +1.24 (which is actually the opposite modality). We've seen months, like June of 1969 for example, with +3.2 standard deviation, +2.2 in late 1976 and +2.8 in early 1978. The winters of 1977-78 and 1978-79 had just as if not more anomalous height patterns either over Alaska or the NPAC in terms of the mid level ridging. The EPO ridges were generally more intense but less expansive in the East pacific than 2013-14. 2013-14:: 1978-79:: 1977-78:: you didn't read the paper. it focuses on a specific enso loading pattern. also, the scales are different in each image other winters prior to el nino onsets with similar patterns: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 Plus everyone on this board is in a sub tropical climate except for William and I, so no one really has a right to complain about last winter. That was once in a lifetime type stuff. Last winter was one of eerie symmetry out here...71 inches of snow & 71 days with measurable snow cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 I definitely thought it as a very nice winter, but some of the storms were downright frustrating, especially 2/13/14. That was just brutal when 10 miles away was snowing for hours after I flipped to rain. Yeah...recall that one...picked up a quick 12.8"...biggest storm of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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