SnoSki14 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Right now I'd bet on some sort of Euro/GGEM blend. If the GGEM starts a radical shift south like it showed for the March 3rd system, I'd worry about suppression. I'd only worry about suppression if the storm was just as weak as the one we had over a week ago. It's a different setup though, the PNA is positive versus negative for that storm and odds are the low will strengthen instead of shear out like that storm but who knows at this point. Not getting too invested in this right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Off course it's a coastal storm the way its modeled. This isn't a cutter. We could just use a little more energy ejecting so it comes a little further west over time. Think almost anyone here who knows the EURO bias is to hold back too much energy in many cases and this may be another case here, or not. But a GGEM/EURO blend wouldnt be too bad of a combo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Off course it's a coastal storm the way its modeled. This isn't a cutter. We could just can use a little more energy ejecting so it comes further west over time. It's an ULL elongated system that starts off over the deep south and then tracks eastward and northeastward. It's not a wrapped up nor'easter. It won't deepen rapidly as it hits the baraclonic zone offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 It's an ULL elongated system that starts off over the deep south and then tracks eastward and northeastward. It's not a wrapped up nor'easter. It won't deepen rapidly as it hits the baraclonic zone offshore. Overrunning with maybe a late developing coastal then. PDII showed you dont always need a powerful nor' easter to produce a big snows area wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Think almost anyone here who knows the EURO bias is to hold back too much energy in many cases and this may be another case here, or not. But a GGEM/EURO blend wouldnt be too bad of a combo Lose that trailing energy over MISS and this is is closer to the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 if a pv lobe can phase in it would be revenge on march 01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Overrunning with maybe a late developing coastal then. PDII showed you dont always need a powerful nor' easter to produce a big snows area wide When I think coastal storm I think of a storm that either redevelops offshore or a miller A that comes up the coast. This is just a broad, perhaps double barreled area of ULL energy. It's the perfect solution given the players on the field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 if a pv lobe can phase in it would be revenge on march 01 Welcome to the party. First time this year you seem to be relatively enthusiastic about anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 I think the GGEM brought too much energy out honestly...I think some kind of blend will occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 if a pv lobe can phase in it would be revenge on march 01 I sense sarcasm, but I don't see any blocking for that to happen, that PV could have a like a pendulum effect on the low though to bring it northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 if a pv lobe can phase in it would be revenge on march 01 Hmmm not sure if serious or just trolling.... Again id expect this post from mikehobbyist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 if a pv lobe can phase in it would be revenge on march 01 Interesting point. Can you elaborate? because thats quite a statement ( if you rnt kidding) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Interesting point. Can you elaborate? because thats quite a statement ( if you rnt kidding) You'd be phasing in the PV, northern stream and southern stream that would equal an absolute prolific snowstorm for the tristate area including coastal locals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 You'd be phasing in the PV, northern stream and southern stream that would equal an absolute prolific snowstorm for the tristate area including coastal locals. Wouldnt that be a triple phaser? Looked at both Euro and GG & nothing close to that there. A tthe very least we have a very interesting setp & the elongation of the PV gives me some hope that the supression solution is off the table to a large degree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Wouldnt that be a triple phaser? Looked at both Euro and GG & nothing close to that there. A tthe very least we have a very interesting setp & the elongation of the PV gives me some hope that the supression solution is off the table to a large degree Its probably the most extreme solution that could happen and at this point HIGHLY unlikely but scenario should still be noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Wouldnt that be a triple phaser? Looked at both Euro and GG & nothing close to that there. A tthe very least we have a very interesting setp & the elongation of the PV gives me some hope that the supression solution is off the table to a large degree Well at least if the Feb 2003 analog doesn't work out, we always have March 1993 to fall back on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 lol @ this board with Forky's post... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 lol @ this board with Forky's post... What? Hes doing what he does best, stir the weenies pot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 The 12z GGEM ensemble mean is gorgeous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 He might be serious 0_o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 The 12z GGEM ensemble mean is gorgeous. Can you post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 He might be serious 0_o These are the kind of posts which get really annoying to sift through and delete all day. There is room for some joking and fun but at least try to keep the discussion constructive especially when it's been two pages of banter about forkys post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Can you post? Nope, paid map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 These are the kind of posts which get really annoying to sift through and delete all day. There is room for some joking and fun but at least try to keep the discussion constructive especially when it's been two pages of banter about forkys post. Calm down . It's only one post that I just made about his post. . I understand what you mean though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 For the very little amount that it's worth the 15z SREF's look really good out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 HPC's thoughts so far, seems to look a lot like the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 These are the kind of posts which get really annoying to sift through and delete all day. There is room for some joking and fun but at least try to keep the discussion constructive especially when it's been two pages of banter about forkys post. There is the remote and i mean very remote almost impossible chance it could happen. Even my inner weenie wont buy that solution due to the ramifications it would have for the upper tier of the NESIS scale. this system will need atleast a full phase and negative tilt at about the eastern MS/TN valley to be a beast and thats not counting a PV phase as well. It was just another albeit long shot solution earthlight, weenies just wet they're jimmies when they heard the possibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Euro ensemble mean tracks the low off the NC coast. Too far south for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Euro ensemble mean tracks the low off the NC coast. Too far south for us. Where`s the Control ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Where`s the Control ? That won't come out for awhile yet. WxBell always lags behind StormVista. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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