Rjay Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 oh jeez. welcome to the annual cascade of sun angle/wont stick during the day posts. april 7, 2003 i measured 7 inches of snow in the middle of the road at 2pm. Yup it will stick anytime of year if it falls hard enough. But when we get into late Feb/early March you expect these type of posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 The sun angle and longer daylight will allow for faster melting once the sun comes out even if temps are in the 20s compared to January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Anything on the Canadian? most of the waa snows are up in NE, light snows to the south. tries to develop the last wave along the frontal boundary like the gfs? just a wimpy 1050 hp nosing out of Canada! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm chaser Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Let's see how your arctic air mass does when the snow isn't sticking. Really cause we had a 6 inch snowstorm on April 7 about 10 years back when it was in the low 50's the day before. Wake up.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 most of the waa snows are up in NE, light snows to the south. tries to develop the last wave along the frontal boundary like the gfs? just a wimpy 1050 hp nosing out of Canada! Just noise. All signals are there for a significant storm. March sun angle will affect totals in the city.... Up in my area, no impact Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scooter13 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Let's see how your arctic air mass does when the snow isn't sticking. 5 years ago to the day (of potential storm) March 2nd, 2009 most of the area got 6-12". Not to mention we've had significant snows past 3/2, your argument is silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 We're talking March 3rd, not March 30th, not to mention a lot of the snow falls at night as well as during the day, especially if you believe the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 5 years ago to the day (of potential storm) March 2nd, 2009 most of the area got 6-12". Not to mention we've had significant snows past 3/2, your argument is silly. I got crushed end of the 2nd week of March last year with a foot. Low landers should be very nervous of the sun angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I got crushed end of the 2nd week of March last year with a foot. Low landers should be very nervous of the sun angle. So you are suggesting this is mainly an elevation storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm chaser Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I got crushed end of the 2nd week of March last year with a foot. Low landers should be very nervous of the sun angle. Nope if it snows heavy enough Sun will not be a factor plus seems like at least half this event is at night where it becomes a non factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 5 years ago to the day (of potential storm) March 2nd, 2009 most of the area got 6-12". Not to mention we've had significant snows past 3/2, your argument is silly. NYC had 9"+ last March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Just noise. All signals are there for a significant storm. March sun angle will affect totals in the city.... Up in my area, no impact Nonsense. The air mass is arctic and unprecedented. Whoever gets the most precip south of the arctic boundary will receive the most snow. Right now, the gfs/euro have that right near NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 GEFS looks pretty cold. roughly .75-.1" of qpf, all frozen. for NYC and points N&E, as well as LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 March 7-8th 2013, 6.5" full street stackage at 30 degrees March 2-3rd 2009, 10.5" dry powdery snow full stickage on street for three days. March 12-13 1993, monster stickage with 12" thunder snow, 3" sleet and 70mph winds. It stuck. So will this verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Not sure why people are arguing about sun angles and melting for a storm that's 6 days away, but if you're going to argue, at least get the science right. Yes, the sun angle is significantly higher in early March than in early January, so yes, significantly greater snow melting rates will occur during the day, especially between about 9 am and 3 pm, for the same surface temperature. It's a pretty simple equation where accumulation rate = snowfall rate - snow melting rate and the melting rate is unquestionably greater now. However, at 28F, for example, that melting rate is probably about 1/4" per hour now vs. maybe 1/16" per hour in early January, which means that as long as we get a heavy enough snowfall rate, the snow will still accumulate - but it won't accumulate as well as it would in early January - that's a simple fact. One point to keep in mind, however: once the snow starts accumulating on paved/dark surfaces, that snow layer will begin reflecting the incoming UV radiation, greatly reducing the snow melting rate from what it was prior to the snow covering up the darker/paved surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I always post this example...This is Albany NY on 4/8/2000 at 5pm, thats a 76 degree temp METAR KALB 081951Z 17022G28KT 10SM CLR 24/08 A2938 RMK AO2 PK WND 18031/1930 SLP949 T02440078 Here are your observations less than 24 hours later... METAR KALB 091051Z 30009KT 1/4SM R01/2200V2600FT SN FZFG OVC001 M01/M01 A2948 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/2 SLP984 SNINCR 2/4 4/004 P0007 T10111011 METAR KALB 091151Z 30014KT 1/4SM R01/1400V1800FT +SN FZFG OVC001 M02/M02 A2946 RMK AO2 TWR VIS 1/4 SLP976 SNINCR 2/6 P0005 60030 70034 T10171022 10028 21017 58014 METAR KALB 091251Z 30014KT 1/4SM R01/2400V2800FT +SN FZFG OVC001 M02/M03 A2943 RMK AO2 SLP967 SNINCR 2/8 P0002 T10221033 METAR KALB 091351Z 30020G24KT 1/4SM R01/2400V2600FT SN FZFG OVC001 M02/M03 A2940 RMK AO2 SLP959 SNINCR 1/9 P0002 T10221033 METAR KALB 091451Z 29017G26KT 1/4SM R01/3000V4000FT -SN BR OVC001 M03/M04 A2941 RMK AO2 PK WND 31026/1442 SFC VIS 3/4 SLP962 SNINCR 1/10 P0000 60004 T10281044 55014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I always post this example...This is Albany NY on 4/8/2000 at 5pm, thats a 76 degree temp METAR KALB 081951Z 17022G28KT 10SM CLR 24/08 A2938 RMK AO2 PK WND 18031/1930 SLP949 T02440078 Here are your observations less than 24 hours later... METAR KALB 091051Z 30009KT 1/4SM R01/2200V2600FT SN FZFG OVC001 M01/M01 A2948 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/2 SLP984 SNINCR 2/4 4/004 P0007 T10111011 METAR KALB 091151Z 30014KT 1/4SM R01/1400V1800FT +SN FZFG OVC001 M02/M02 A2946 RMK AO2 TWR VIS 1/4 SLP976 SNINCR 2/6 P0005 60030 70034 T10171022 10028 21017 58014 METAR KALB 091251Z 30014KT 1/4SM R01/2400V2800FT +SN FZFG OVC001 M02/M03 A2943 RMK AO2 SLP967 SNINCR 2/8 P0002 T10221033 METAR KALB 091351Z 30020G24KT 1/4SM R01/2400V2600FT SN FZFG OVC001 M02/M03 A2940 RMK AO2 SLP959 SNINCR 1/9 P0002 T10221033 METAR KALB 091451Z 29017G26KT 1/4SM R01/3000V4000FT -SN BR OVC001 M03/M04 A2941 RMK AO2 PK WND 31026/1442 SFC VIS 3/4 SLP962 SNINCR 1/10 P0000 60004 T10281044 55014 I don't think anyone is saying accumulating snow is an impossibility with the early March sun angle (much less early April). The point is, if this is generally light to occasionally moderate snow, during the day this won't accumulate much. I've seen moderate snow not stick at ALL in Philly back in 2010 in late Feb/early March, due to the lack of intensity and the sun angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I don't think anyone is saying accumulating snow is an impossibility with the early March sun angle (much less early April). The point is, if this is generally light to occasionally moderate snow, during the day this won't accumulate much. I've seen moderate snow not stick at ALL in Philly back in 2010 in late Feb/early March, due to the lack of intensity and the sun angle. Please, do you really believe the GFS.. YOU really believe this will be a 72 hr event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm chaser Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 no GGEM info ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Please, do you really believe the GFS.. YOU really believe this will be a 72 hr event. Who cares if that's how long it lasts. The point was will light to moderate snow stick during the the day in march. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 no GGEM info ? Warmer than the gfs with less precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Who cares if that's how long it lasts. The point was will light to moderate snow stick during the the day in march.I really don't think light snow will but mod snow should with temps in the 20s and a cold ground. But I think we should hold this discussion 24 hrs out from an event because this is far from a lock as you def know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Please, do you really believe the GFS.. YOU really believe this will be a 72 hr event. 1if conjunction \ˈif, əf\ a : in the event that b : allowing that c : on the assumption that d : on condition that Origin of IFMiddle English, from Old English gif; akin to Old High German ibu ifFirst Known Use: before 12th century Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I really don't think light snow will but mod snow should with temps in the 20s and a cold ground. But I think we should hold this discussion 24 hrs out from an event because this is far from a lock as you def know. Of course. Its all kinda pointless now but since it is March its always a discussion that comes up. Anyway onto the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Hr 114 light rain moves into the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 This might be a big hit for the area. Out to 138 on stormvista. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Snowing pretty good at 138 and 144 hours. Really good run for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scooter13 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Snowing pretty good at 138 and 144 hours. Really good run for the area. 144 would be 00z Tuesday, so I'm guessing its more of a Monday hit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 144 would be 00z Tuesday, so I'm guessing its more of a Monday hit? It's still a Sunday into Tuesday storm with the main part being on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Hr 114 light rain moves in Hr 120 light to mod precip. 850mb 0 line is running through nyc and LI with temps in the low 30s ..upper 20s in NWNJ hr 126. Light snow..Surface below freezing for all and 850mb temps below freezing for anyone north of TTN Hr 132 light snow with temps in the mid 20s except the NJ shore is 30-31 hr 138 heavy snow nw of i95 mod snow nyc..Light snow s and e of there..NJ shore is sleet probably hr 144 heavy snow for all. 1002 mb low 100+ miles east of Delaware hr 150 light snow for all. Temps in the teens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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