user13 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Looking at the trends of how powerful this storm becomes. Its going to be plenty cold and if the LP and precip shield shifts 50-75 miles we'd probably be talking QPF numbers cumulative around 1.5-1.75" from what i can see I think that might be a little high brother .This would be another higher ratio event so we wouldn't need as much qpf to get nice totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Looking at the trends of how powerful this storm becomes. Its going to be plenty cold and if the LP and precip shield shifts 50-75 miles we'd probably be talking QPF numbers cumulative around 1.5-1.75" from what i can seeI still think this is probably run of the mill but a nice 3 to 5 inch type event here. The trough needs to sharpen and go neg tilt faster and the vorts need to phase faster. It will be a great storm for someone but I would say odds are it isn't us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Looking at the trends of how powerful this storm becomes. Its going to be plenty cold and if the LP and precip shield shifts 50-75 miles we'd probably be talking QPF numbers cumulative around 1.5-1.75" from what i can see You have such an aura of confidence right now. I am hypothesizing that something "euphoric" in nature happened to you just recently? But it would be such an irony if coastal sections somehow would get more snow than what we had accumulated this morning from this "Superstorm 1993 redux." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Upton says model trends today have been further south with this storm and so most of the precip end up south of the cwa. They say it looks like .01-.04 of precip so there forecasting a couple of inches. ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Deleted my enthusiastic comment. Decided its best to let other experienced people like jm1220, PB GFI do the PbP. I tried but my experience in doing it properly isnt up to standard yet. I will therefore curb my enthusiasm and see the models tommorow. Hope this does trend our way my coastal peeps, the backend of tonights storm blew chunks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Deleted my enthusiastic comment. Decided its best to let other experienced people like jm1220, PB GFI do the PbP. I tried but my experience in doing it properly isnt up to standard yet. I will therefore curb my enthusiasm and see the models tommorow. Hope this does trend our way my coastal peeps, the backend of tonights storm blew chunks Never want to dissuade you from being enthusiastic brother .Just coming from experience would rather you look at the take the conservative view of weather , its like golf you have a great round and you think you`re ready for the tour . The next day you`re breaking clubs. Thank god I don`t make my living doing this . Not easy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I land (hopefully) tomorrow AM, and take off (with family) Sunday PM. I would like nothing more than to thread the needle with another tasty pasting and a day of sledding and not packing. Let's do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I don't know, perhaps the enthusiasm is warranted. I really like this threat and the rather substantial run to run trending under 48 hrs is very notable. My suspicions for many of these past storms have proven correct. I paid close attention to the storm near MLK day when most had given up on it or not even acknowledged it. I liked the Monday storm were we got like 8-9" after the Super Bowl, but I didn't like the storm prior to the Super Bowl though and that turned out to be a good suspicion. I was not a fan of the CCB and I feared the warming and placement of it, which is turning out to be correct. I really want to see where tonight's runs go and if the trend continues before I really honk on this storm. Deleted my enthusiastic comment. Decided its best to let other experienced people like jm1220, PB GFI do the PbP. I tried but my experience in doing it properly isnt up to standard yet. I will therefore curb my enthusiasm and see the models tommorow. Hope this does trend our way my coastal peeps, the backend of tonights storm blew chunks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 We don't want more digging unless the pieces of energy can phase faster, round the corner of the trough and force development closer to the coast. It actually could hurt us because the lift will be transferred quicker to the way offshore coastal low and what initial overrunning type snow for us will disappear. If trends like this continue, it may not be much of an event for us at all. Digging doesn't automatically mean better outcome if the trough is very progressive and slow to turn the corner. It just means a stronger storm out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Gfs is even closer this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Gfs is even closer this runPlease explain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 That`s a pretty nice look . Hour 48 its 984 off CC . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Please explain? Was more amped this run CCB clips Suffolk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 That`s a pretty nice look . Hour 48 its 984 off CC . Yea pretty...we need today's storms to get out of the way so we have till 12z tom to lock in a big solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 GFS trended slightly more amplified aloft once again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Nam looked drier at 0z than 18z. It's everyone saying better because of upper features? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Yea pretty...we need today's storms to get out of the way so we have till 12z tom to lock in a big solution Would like some separation , just need 6 hours , think we could sharpen it up at 36 , and 42 it would come alive . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Some GFS qpf numbers for the system: BDR: 0.32" BOS: 0.78" FOK: 0.68" HPN: 0.29" HVN: 0.36" EWR: 0.26" ISP: 0.40" JFK: 0.30" LGA: 0.27" MMU: 0.28" MTP: 1.18" NYC: 0.27" PVD: 0.90" TTN: 0.18" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 How are the globals tonight so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 since 0z GFS was impressive. anybody doing ECM pbp ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Amounts are mostly in the .1-.15" range on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 thx. Sounds like it's in its own world again. NAM + GFS vs. Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 OPC 48hr look in SPEECHLESS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 00zs def leaning towards a light event but we still have alittle time to bump it up a little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 fwiw, the gfs, euro and ggem all like tuesday now Major CAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 fwiw, the gfs, euro and ggem all like "LOVE" Tuesday now... edited by Mikehobbyst Major CAD Looks like 3-6 away from the coast and 2-4 on the coast, before changing to drizzle at the end. This seems to be trans to milder 36-40 degree days for the end of the week. It will feel warm. Looks like we spend 12 hours near 45/45 to do damage to some of the snowpack by next weekend. We'll probably not see any grass until 3/20 - 4/1 and being serious as 3/1-3/15 look very cold with barely to freezing for highs with MJO in phase 8/1 and Greenland Block and - NAO showing up on some models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Looks like 3-6 away from the coast and 2-4 on the coast, before changing to drizzle at the end. This seems to be trans to milder 36-40 degree days for the end of the week. It will feel warm. Looks like we spend 12 hours near 45/45 to do damage to some of the snowpack by next weekend. We'll probably not see any grass until 3/20 - 4/1 and being serious as 3/1-3/15 look very cold with barely to freezing for highs with MJO in phase 8/1 and Greenland Block and - NAO showing up on some models. Big time reload on the models. Late feb and early march looks fantastic for more noreasters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 My guess for 2/15/14: 1-3" for NYC, 2-4" for Nassau, and 3-6" for Suffolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 06Z RGEM total snow for Saturday's storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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