PB GFI Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 4k actually looks way colder at the surface than 18z with he front dump I think its a little too cold, the NAM was better last week with the surface . its 1 or 2 ticks too cold IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Total QPF on the 4k NAM is in the 1.50-2.00" range areawide. It's more than 90% frozen for the NW half of the forum. Probably 18-24". From all that I'm seeing, it looks fairly close to that even for NENJ/NYC, am I wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Total QPF on the 4k NAM is in the 1.50-2.00" range areawide. It's more than 90% frozen for the NW half of the forum. Probably 18-24". 1.50 goes to back the Delaware river ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Total QPF on the 4k NAM is in the 1.75-2.50" range areawide. It's more than 90% frozen for the NW half of the forum. Probably 18-24". With wind gusts to around 30, def. some whiteout conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 1.50 goes to back the Delaware river ? 1.50"+ goes back to the Williamsport area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Wow 4k NAM is insane for the HV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The 4km is just...ridiculous. A foot on the front end. Lop a third off and we're likely at where we'll be.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Snow finally moves out around 10-12z Friday from SW to NE. Roughly 30 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Even NYC would have 24" of total snowcover by the end of this NAM run. Just picture perfect. We all know with every impending snowstorm, the NAM will usually one extreme solution. However, this is looking like 2 runs in a row that shows this possibility. I wonder if there is any forecasters out there that puts any credibility with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The 4k NAM shows that the beginning of the trowel will be IP/ZR for eastern sections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 NAM looks like 5 - 10 on the front thump from cnj north to Newark/NYC. then some mixing/dry slotting followed by mix to snow with 2 - 5 additional accumulation sw to ne. total accumulation 7 - 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 We all know with every impending snowstorm, the NAM will usually one extreme solution. However, this is looking like 2 runs in a row that shows this possibility. I wonder if there is any forecasters out there that puts any credibility with this. I can confirm that. on his tweeter feed Nick Gregory ' The NAM is colder ,will have to watch it, could lead to higher totals if verifies' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Wow 4k NAM is insane for the HV it is insane everywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Lop a third off and we're likely at where we'll be.... Sounds about right. There is going to be a period of time tomorrow where we are 33 and rain/sleet while NYC and the Hudson valley is ripping snow. I would be shocked if that CCB doesn't hit us too though as temps crash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 30-35MPH winds looks like a good possibility well inland with a brief period of 50MPH winds at the coast as the coastal makes its closest approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The 4k NAM shows hours 17 all the way to 30 are dry slotted and mixing/raining until the wraparound sets in...so yes, the lower Hudson valley will be the jackpot as it is getting SLAMMED with the wraparound. We get it just not for nearly as long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 A little off topic but the nam seem to be liking the storm behind this one. We will have to watch that one too now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 4k Nam city loses 2 hours of the CCB to HVY mixed precip 850`s are plus 2 until Hour 29 , Then we flip . We had that in 2011 - will sleet first City east , then its bombs away Upton thinks there are gusts to 50 with this , so expect white out conditions with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I am waiting for that 4km weenie map, oh man, cmon E-wall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Looking nice wagons east?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Between hour 30 -33 4 plus could fall from Monmouth County into NYC with another Hour to go . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 How accurate was the 4KM for the previous storms this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 So on the precip type maps and totals....NYC gets about 0.25+ rain, 1.25" snow, a tiny bit of freezing rain (more west and east even) and maybe a bit of sleet....so it's mainly a front end thump, to mainly rain then slowly back to an additional few inches at least. Hudson valley gets clobbered with mainly snow/sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 That appears to be about to make landfall in eastern NC. Pressure in Wilmington, NC at 1008mb right now (and falling, obviously). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The radar is filling in and racing toward the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 That appears to be about to make landfall in eastern NC. Pressure in Wilmington, NC at 1008mb right now (and falling, obviously). Right where the Euro had it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Can anyone point out where the kicker is exactly and if its on track or behind/ahead of schedule? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Btw "Reports of thundersnow western Chesterfield. Storm tops shows elevated possible convection heading NE." https://twitter.com/JimDuncanNBC12/status/433790911462383616/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Right where the Euro had it. Yeah I pasted a snippet from LWX earlier mentioning how the euro has so far had the best handle of everything. Of course thats gonna get buried in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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