HailMan06 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The 18z models have continued to show a major snowstorm for the NYC metro region. GFS came in slightly east and drier. Most short term models remain bullish on the storm. Continue discussion. SREF: 8:20 NAM: 9:00 RGEM: 10:20 GFS: 10:30 UKMET: 10:40 GGEM: 11:00 GEFS (EN): 12:00 ECMWF: 12:45 ECM (EN): 3:00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 21z sref looking great for all big snows for coast as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 SREf are a tick east, colder, and drier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Correct me if I'm wrong.....but it seems the best scenarios for us are 1.)for some of the westward tracks to verify so that we get a HEAVY front dump...then dry slot .....with the chance of the CCB hitting us hard later on 2.) for it to be much further east and stay all snow (which now appears out of the question) A solution that is in the middle would lead to less of an extreme front end dump, and then missing the CCB to the NE. Correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 HRRR looks great thru hour 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 nice CCB signal on the 21z SREF for great wraparound folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The SREF's are only a hair drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Incredible..when you compare the 0 hr initialization of the 00z NAM to the 6 hour forecast from the 18z NAM, this run is already much more amplified. The model was considerably off 6 hours in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 As PB noted above, this is way at the end of its range but the 23Z HRRR run has over 12" snowfall accumulated in the Ocean County/Monmouth County area by 9 o'clock tomorrow morning. It is holding on to frozen for a LONG time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Incredible..when you compare the 0 hr initialization of the 00z NAM to the 6 hour forecast from the 18z NAM, this run is already much more amplified. The model was considerably off 6 hours in advance. lets hope it still keeps the warming at bay or we're cooked on the coast john Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 RAP and HRRR . look very similar . Both look great On the RAP at hour 18 - 850`s JUST south of the city and 10 -12 has fallen between Trenton thru Monmouth County and all of CNJ and around 8 to 10 in KNYC . The center on the RAP at the tip of Delaware and maybe a tick west , but the Damage will be done , and we prob dry out as 850`s warm for round 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Incredible..when you compare the 0 hr initialization of the 00z NAM to the 6 hour forecast from the 18z NAM, this run is already much more amplified. The model was considerably off 6 hours in advance. Precip orientation is way different too...it actually has the crazy thunderstorms over Florida this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 So I guess we are expecting this NAM run to head in the wrong direction? Being that it is more amped and the last NAM run was nearly perfect for a front end dump and a big CCB hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Looks farther northwest with the mid level centers. Could be warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 So I guess we are expecting this NAM run to head in the wrong direction? Being that it is more amped and the last NAM run was nearly perfect for a front end dump and a big CCB hit I don't think we have to worry about the front end dumping regardless of what the Nam shows now. It's time to look at the shorter range models and the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 So I guess we are expecting this NAM run to head in the wrong direction? Being that it is more amped and the last NAM run was nearly perfect for a front end dump and a big CCB hit It was noted earlier the gfs/nam tracks were too far east and the euro track was preferred Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Slammed at hour 12. 925mb warm layer getting really close for comfort just near TTN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 the euro was northwest of the nam but colder as well... probably stronger dynamics cooling the mid levels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Wow 850s actually look a little colder through 14 but its so bunched up not 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 hr 12 the sleet line looks to be from ttn-colts neck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 that is way too close for comfort for LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Ends up slightly cooler through 15 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 hr 12 the sleet line looks to be from ttn-colts neckWe look to be in a good spot for heavy snows near edison and piscataway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Now we wait for NAM's little brother, the 4km Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 that is way too close for comfort for LI The heavy snow rates will try to push that back as long as possible. South of Belmar on the NJ coast and out way east in Suffolk, there will be less resistance to the warm push as there will be here. Every model shows that including the short range ones now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Hanging on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Hr 15 on the NAM, 850's are still south of LI and entire area is getting pounded. It's very close in the 925mb layer where there could be more warming. Heavy precip rates should hold off the warming a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 hr 15 is still heavy snow in nyc….isothermal bomb…hr 16 we get slotted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Hanging on Even down here at that time there's maybe a mix, and the precip looks ready to end. The NAM looks A-OK to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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