NYC/PHL 12/21-12/27 Forecast Threats

[MJO812]

FWIW, here is the 12z KMA. Shows a strong coastal.

[WeatherX]

Euro looks a little wacky with the upper level features and precip distribution 168-180 hours......doesn't matter, the storm is there and there is support for it as of today. Good enough for this weenie..

[_AR_]

FWIW, here is the 12z KMA. Shows a strong coastal.

Gotta love the koreans.

[SACRUS]

Anyone have the ggem ensembles, Im interested if they are in line with the op?

[NittanyWx]

Arguing about ratios on a storm 6 days out...

is appropriate...

[famartin]

Youre coming home for xmas regardless, correct?

Yes... shhh, don't tell the models

[NittanyWx]

Anyone have the ggem ensembles, Im interested if they are in line with the op?

Ensembles

[isnice]

Arguing about ratios on a storm 6 days out... :lol:Anyway, just remember that the GFS has a slight wet bias and the EC has a slight dry bias, QPF-wise.

I think you're a bit softspoken on our threads but I really do value your opinion, as you've seemed pretty dead on so far except when the Euro confused you a little for this past non-event. So, what are you thinking? Does the h500 pattern truly support a bomb, or more of what DT is thinking. I ask you because you're completely indifferent, given your location, but if we do get this storm there's plenty of room chez-moi if you wanna come stay.

[Manny]

My confidence level for a moderate snow event on Christmas is much higher, with a similar upper level depiction on the Euro, and the GFS obviously lol.

[SnoSki14]

There's about a 70% chance of a widespread 1-3/2-4" snow event, a 50% of a 3-6/4-8" widespread event, a 30% of a 6-12" widespread event, and a 5% of a widespread 12"+ event. I like these odds, let's see what happens.

[eduggs]

12z GFS gives 18-25" throughout area.... lol

If you overlay the GFS charts onto the Euro, they have good agreement at surface and h5 for days 5, 6, and 7. But the GFS is about 12 hours faster, so the comparison, for example, is Euro Day 6 vs. GFS Day 5.5. Obviously there are differences, but this degree of agreement for 144hrs is very encouraging.

[A-L-E-X]

There's about a 70% chance of a widespread 1-3/2-4" snow event, a 50% of a 3-6/4-8" widespread event, a 30% of a 6-12" widespread event, and a 5% of a widespread 12"+ event. I like these odds, let's see what happens.

Yeah, I'll go with 4-8 now.... anything more than that would be a pleasant surprise. Where do you get these odds from btw?

[earthlight]

Yeah, I'll go with 4-8 now.... anything more than that would be a pleasant surprise. Where do you get these odds from btw?

His head, probably...I can't believe we're throwing out totals at 150 hours.

[famartin]

I think you're a bit softspoken on our threads but I really do value your opinion, as you've seemed pretty dead on so far except when the Euro confused you a little for this past non-event.

A lot of us were confused

So, what are you thinking? Does the h500 pattern truly support a bomb, or more of what DT is thinking. I ask you because you're completely indifferent, given your location, but if we do get this storm there's plenty of room chez-moi if you wanna come stay.

I definitely wouldn't say I'm indifferent... especially with this storm. I'm going to be particularly soft spoken with this storm... the GFS depiction is a dream-come-true (for me too, not just you). I always guard against a miss because its such a big let down, and this time I'm gonna be even more guarded. But yes, I think the pattern is favorable... but that doesn't always mean there's a storm. An interesting study project I might undertake if I ever get back east would be to go back and see how often a favorable pattern DIDN'T produce. Then again, someone might've done that already.

[Manny]

Yeah, I'll go with 4-8 now.... anything more than that would be a pleasant surprise. Where do you get these odds from btw?

Word. Imagine sitting at home with snow falling and a whitened ground with 4-8" while, depending on your beliefs, your Christmas tree is all lit with the family in the house.

[SnoSki14]

His head, probably...I can't believe we're throwing out totals at 150 hours.

I'm basing my odds on what the models are doing and the overall look to the pattern. I agree though that it's probably too early to focus on totals but people spent over a page discussing QPF and BUFKIT from the gfs. I need more model agreement from the Ukie, and GGEM before we go any further, but it's always fun to discuss snow amounts.

[A-L-E-X]

His head, probably...I can't believe we're throwing out totals at 150 hours.

Yeah, thats a bit risky to say the least. Considering what we just went through lol.

[Sn0waddict]

After the last threat, I'm not getting excited about anything until its 48 hours away. Tough so far it seems like there is more agreement with this storm than there was with the last one.

[tombo82685]

here is the 12z euro qpf, little late but i thought i would dish it out

green .1-.25

blue .25-.5

purple .5-.75

yellow .75-1

gray 1+

[_AR_]

His head, probably...I can't believe we're throwing out totals at 150 hours.

Setting up for disaster again. You know, the usual.

At least this one has a better chance. It's just a matter of how much. It could track over us and be weak with only light precip. It could be suppressed and only give us light precip or only people to the south. This one has a better chance of giving us snow at least, but I agree throwing out amounts this early is a bit much. I'm sure we can find some maps on the accuwx forums if we wanted. haha

[NaoPos]

Question for the serious folks in here.

With the EURO being a bit slower , would this be due to it's bias to keep the shortwave in the southwest? Or is it too early to say?

[A-L-E-X]

Word. Imagine sitting at home with snow falling and a whitened ground with 4-8" while, depending on your beliefs, your Christmas tree is all lit with the family in the house.

Even with a few inches, considering the day, it would make last week's bust (today's actually lol) a distant memory!

[A-L-E-X]

here is the 12z euro qpf, little late but i thought i would dish it out

green .1-.25

blue .25-.5

purple .5-.75

yellow .75-1

gray 1+

.75-1.00 here.... but is any of that stuff near coastal NJ mix or rain?

[tombo82685]

.75-1.00 here.... but is any of that stuff near coastal NJ mix or rain?

it should be all snow

[gkrangers]

here is the 12z euro qpf, little late but i thought i would dish it out

green .1-.25

blue .25-.5

purple .5-.75

yellow .75-1

gray 1+

I would lock that in right now given the choice. Nice moderate event for the area.

[WeatherX]

Giggity goo...

[blizzardof09]

after this weekends model fiasco i wouldnt be even thinking about issuing a snowfall map etc. even just rough numbers off a qpf map until were inside 96 hours or less. you gotta admit this storm has atleast taught me to be very cautious with every storm, granted the setup had to be prefect for it to happen anyway and really had to have a miracle for it to happen. the setup with this storm is great though and im excited about it too.

[Ridingtime]

after this weekends model fiasco i wouldnt be even thinking about issuing a snowfall map etc. even just rough numbers off a qpf map until were inside 96 hours or less. you gotta admit this storm has atleast taught me to be very cautious with every storm, granted the setup had to be prefect for it to happen anyway and really had to have a miracle for it to happen. the setup with this storm is great though and im excited about it too.

It's also reassuring that the shortwave will technically be on the CONUS in 72 hrs.

[uncle W]

it looks like mother nature is going bowling next week and I'm hoping for a strike this time instead of a gutter ball...

[Voyager]

I would lock that in right now given the choice. Nice moderate event for the area.

I wouldn't. I want everything north and west about 100-150 miles. I'm tired of sweeping an inch of snow while folks south and east are digging out of a major snowfall.