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POWERSTROKE

February Banter

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Here is are a couple of good things to count on for this storm, given the H5 setup and what's happening during the storm:

1) Count on surface temps being a couple degrees warmer for more of the event than you think.

2) Count on a warm layer in there somewhere that will give less snow than you think.

3) Count on 850s to warm just a little bit more than you think.

4) Count on a little less precipitation than you think.

If you do that, you will probably end up with a MUCH closer picture of what will really end up happening than by just looking at the direct model output.

Well, aren't you a ray of sunshine today....................?  lol  just messing with ya.

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Day 10 looks primed for action on the euro as well. That's wayyyyyyyy out of range though

 

I don't mean to rain on your parade (pun intended :D), but there is absolutely no cold air to work with. The incoming trough looks good, but any cold air that could get drawn into the storm is well north in Canada. Unless a strong cut-off forms and generates it's own cold air, it would be a big ol honking rainstorm:

post-987-0-00907200-1391803840_thumb.gif

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Well, aren't you a ray of sunshine today....................?  lol  just messing with ya.

 

I know. :( I hope today is just a blip.

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Here is are a couple of good things to count on for this storm, given the H5 setup and what's happening during the storm:

1) Count on surface temps being a couple degrees warmer for more of the event than you think.

2) Count on a warm layer in there somewhere that will give less snow than you think.

3) Count on 850s to warm just a little bit more than you think.

4) Count on a little less precipitation than you think.

If you do that, you will probably end up with a MUCH closer picture of what will really end up happening than by just looking at the direct model output.

Sounds about right :lol: 

 

Yes, because it is so serious to be here and to be an expert at reading the models to have an interest in the weather, winter storms, tornadoes, hurricanes, etc.

 

I am just discussing things generally and doing it in the right thread.

I've got to admit you have done a little better directing your comments to the correct thread  ;)  

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I don't mean to rain on your parade (pun intended :D), but there is absolutely no cold air to work with. The incoming trough looks good, but any cold air that could get drawn into the storm is well north in Canada. Unless a strong cut-off forms and generates it's own cold air, it would be a big ol honking rainstorm:

shipment-of-fail.jpg?1318992465

 

noticed your failboat for 10 days out. Nice!

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They're talking about the winter storm on the radio now.....kiss of death.

 

What we need is the pac man sound or the price is right horns.

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Today's runs have me on edge...EURO is hanging on to a big dog by a string.......all the other globals pretty much lost it (big dog). 

 

I guess I'll walk away and check it out on Monday. 

 

:blink:

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Today's runs have me on edge...EURO is hanging on to a big dog by a string.......all the other globals pretty much lost it (big dog). 

 

I guess I'll walk away and check it out on Monday. 

 

:blink:

 LOL, see you at 4:30 for the 18z

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What's the Euro going to fold to?  The solution the GFS had at 0Z, 6Z, 12Z, or 18Z? Because they have all been different every day.

 

 

Don't Fool With Mother Nature, That's Whom...

post-2767-0-68007300-1391805415_thumb.jp

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Based on the consistency of the models that have been described, it still looks right now there is more evidence than not for a good winter storm.

Lol stop.

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Honestly, it's pointless to start cherry picking the details for this storm. Hopefully we'll have a better idea by the time I come home to AVL from Georgia.

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The models could be rushing that PV, and hopefully the SS is quicker with the energy. We need both to go our way.

 

How often do things go our way over the past 20 years...LOL.  It would be kind of funny if we were too far east.  That would be too far west on the storm 2 weeks ago and too far east for this storm.  That would be a slap in the face.

 

 

 

Final call looking good. ;):D

 

Looking good!

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Here we go developing new biases for the GFS. The time frame thing about the GFS typically losing a storm is false. There is nothing to back that up with. Then the 18Z no data thing can't be brought up because it's hasn't been the 18z run yet.

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Verbatim on the Euro for RDU it's about 0.6" of frzn and another 0.6" of cold rain.

INT/GSO - 1.2" of frzn, maybe a little front end snow, but mostly FRZN

CLT - 1.3" of frzn, no power for a week type event

HKY - Very close to being all snow, but most likely 0.6" of snow and 0.6" of ice

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How often do things go our way over the past 20 years...LOL.  It would be kind of funny if we were too far east.  That would be too far west on the storm 2 weeks ago and too far east for this storm.  That would be a slap in the face.

 

 

Looking good!

 

Well the problem for us is the mighty Euro is already to warm for us, it's half frzn and half rain, so we need it to trend colder not just hold on.  But yes, we are probably right on the border of to far east, which is funny!  I am still holding out hope for the day 4-5 1-3" snow type event.  The "bigger" event has west of 85 written all over it.

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More icy than snow this run for NC, mountains may still get a good deal of snow, but looks like in general from looking at 850s, 2mT, and QPF some snow to ice event for many.

 

Wedge is locked in at hour 126 although not as strong as 00z run. Still significant frozen/freezing precip for CLT/RDU through hour 126.

 

 

Looks like Charlotte stays at or below freezing whole event. RDU goes above at hour 132, but not sure how much of QPF between 126-132 falls at or below freezing. RDU back to freezing at 132 as low pulls away.

 

Again, right now,dont get lost in details of rain/ice/snow line 120-144 hours out.

 

Bottom line Canadian/ECMWF still have event, more GFS ENS members then not have the event, when compared to odd 12z op GFS run. Trend today in 12z guidance has been for the parent high to be a little weaker and move out a little faster. However, the wedge is locked in very nicely with diabatic processes (hybrid CAD) and while the eastern fringes of the wedge may changeover at some point (RDU) even they would still get a significant winter storm.

 

Plenty more cycles and oscillations to come!

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Verbatim on the Euro for RDU it's about 0.6" of frzn and another 0.6" of cold rain.

INT/GSO - 1.2" of frzn, maybe a little front end snow, but mostly FRZN

CLT - 1.3" of frzn, no power for a week type event

HKY - Very close to being all snow, but most likely 0.6" of snow and 0.6" of ice

 

There is just no way it's all freezing rain in Charlotte. There's going to be a significant period of sleet and or snow or both.

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Verbatim on the Euro for RDU it's about 0.6" of frzn and another 0.6" of cold rain.

INT/GSO - 1.2" of frzn, maybe a little front end snow, but mostly FRZN

CLT - 1.3" of frzn, no power for a week type event

HKY - Very close to being all snow, but most likely 0.6" of snow and 0.6" of ice

What am I missing on GSO? As far as I can see it would be mostly snow and then ZR.

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Verbatim on the Euro for RDU it's about 0.6" of frzn and another 0.6" of cold rain.

INT/GSO - 1.2" of frzn, maybe a little front end snow, but mostly FRZN

CLT - 1.3" of frzn, no power for a week type event

HKY - Very close to being all snow, but most likely 0.6" of snow and 0.6" of ice

I wish this thing would really wrap up. That could help cool the mid levels and give at least our western friends a good all snow event. I don't know if that's even a scenario that's on the table or not at this point though.

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For everyone west of 85 in NC I'm confident. That's at least 5 runs in a row of the euro showing a biggie

 

I'm with you, I'm about to go all in.

 

Sign me up, gentlemen.  I'm on board too.  I think I'm sitting in a really nice spot this go round, not as nice as Frosty, but good nonetheless.  Here's to ending the effects of the Foothills snow shadow with a nice Miller A track!  I think this storm has potential blockbuster written all over it.

 

 

CR, since when have you begun to drink the same Kool-aid that packbacker was drinking recently?  You are beginning to sound like you are at the uttermost point of despair.  I don't recognize this side of your Internet personality, man.

 

 

Oh, and I have to side with Brick on this one against all you guys bombarding him with why this storm will suck.  I think there's a lot to be excited about this storm.  A good number of you guys are just trying soooo hard to find something bad to say about this storm.  To me, you're almost wish-casting in the opposite way from what it normally means.  You're so hell-bent on continuing to live in the "snow-life sucks" attitude that you're almost hoping you get left at the altar of a big storm again, just so you can complain about it some more.  There's a decent threat on the table, and you don't even want it.  That's beyond being level-headed and non-emotional about a storm.

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The energy in here is terrible today. I dont even know how to explain it.

It's mostly my fault. Sorry man. I'll take a break for the rest of the day and maybe come back strong tomorrow.... unless the 18z GFS hooks us up. :)

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Sign me up, gentlemen.  I'm on board too.  I think I'm sitting in a really nice spot this go round, not as nice as Frosty, but good nonetheless.  Here's to ending the effects of the Foothills snow shadow with a nice Miller A track!  I think this storm has potential blockbuster written all over it.

 

 

CR, since when have you begun to drink the same Kool-aid that packbacker was drinking recently?  You are beginning to sound like you are at the uttermost point of despair.  I don't recognize this side of your Internet personality, man.

 

 

Oh, and I have to side with Brick on this one against all you guys bombarding him with why this storm will suck.  I think there's a lot to be excited about this storm.  A good number of you guys are just trying soooo hard to find something bad to say about this storm.  To me, you're almost wish-casting in the opposite way from what it normally means.  You're so hell-bent on continuing to live in the "snow-life sucks" attitude that you're almost hoping you get left at the altar of a big storm again, just so you can complain about it some more.  There's a decent threat on the table, and you don't even want it.  That's beyond being level-headed and non-emotional about a storm.

Bitter-casting is no better than wish-casting.

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