beavis1729 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL914 PM CST MON FEB 10 2014.DISCUSSION...851 PM CSTMAIN CHANGES THIS EVENING WERE WITH MIN TEMP/TEMP TRENDS THISEVENING...TO ACCOUNT FOR BITTERLY COLD TEMPS EXPECTEDTONIGHT...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SOME OF THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THEWINTER SEASON.FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES THIS EVENING ARE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWTEMPERATURES. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALMING WINDS AS SURFACE RIDGEAXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CWA...TEMPERATURES HAVEALREADY OBSERVED RAPID DROPS WITH SOME LOCATIONS ALREADY IN THEMINUS TEENS. DESPITE SOME MODERATION TO TEMPS ALOFT OVER THE LAST12 HOURS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FORTEMPS TO REALLY DROP OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO BECOLDER THAN MONDAY MORNING. BASED ON LATEST TRENDS...DID LOWERMIN TEMPS 1-3 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS AND AM STARTING TOBELIEVE THAT SOMEWHERE IN OUR CWA HAS A RUN AT REACHING 30 BELOWZERO TONIGHT. EXPECT AREA WIDE LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR 10 BELOW TO20 BELOW ZERO...WITH 20 BELOW TO 30 BELOW ZERO LIKELY ACROSSLOCATIONS IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. DESPITE THESE BITTERLY COLDTEMPERATURES IN PLACE...THE CALM WINDS WILL LIMIT WIND CHILLS WITHVALUES NOT MUCH COLDER THAN THE ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURE. THIS HASGENERALLY BEEN THE CASE FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH ONLY THE FOXVALLEY AREA OBSERVING WIND CHILLS SLIGHTLY BELOW 20 BELOW ZERO ATTHIS HOUR. ALTHOUGH...THIS SHOULD ONLY BE OBSERVED FOR THE NEXT1-2 HOURS BEFORE WINDS DROP OFF AND BECOME CALM. NONETHELESS...THEVERY LOW TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONSACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A GRADUAL WARM UPWILL OCCUR TUESDAY MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE ZEROACROSS MOST LOCATIONS BY MID TO LATE MORNING.RODRIGUEZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Various locations in NE/NC IL at 10PM CST (warmest to coldest), including wind speed. About 9 hours of darkness to go! Chicago (ORD): 1, NW 8 mph DuPage Airport (DPA): -3, NW 5 mph Rockford (RFD): -7, calm De Kalb (DKB): -9, W 8 mph Joliet (JOT): -9, SW 3 mph Kankakee (IKK): -13, W 3 mph Aurora (ARR): -18, W 7 mph Rochelle (RPJ): -21, SW 7 mph If Rochelle goes calm for an extended period, they might have a chance to challenge the state record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 -7 at LAF. -13 north of here in Monticello Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Shot of the cardinal made my day. Thanks Josh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 If Rochelle goes calm for an extended period, they might have a chance to challenge the state record. Agree...although of course any bump in wind speed after going calm (even for a brief time) can bounce the temp up too much for it to "recover" (back downward). Should be fun to watch. They are already 17 degrees colder than last night at this time...and it fell to -27 last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Mich- Great pictures. Those cardinals are always so nice to see in a landscape void of any real color. Weird that you have fox squirrels around. I only see those in rural areas around here. I got those too around here. They seemed to have moved into the area in recent years. Blue Jays also have added color to the landscape here. A lot of them have frequented the feeders lately. -18° at Black River Falls now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 -13 here. Been as cold as -14. Temps have been bouncing around like crazy tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 -13 here. Been as cold as -14. Temps have been bouncing around like crazy tonight. Same here..bouncing around...must just be a little breeze or something ... i've got -8F here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 About -3° here. The fall has slowed down. +2° at Waukegan Harbor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 -13 here. Been as cold as -14. Temps have been bouncing around like crazy tonight.I've often wondered why the temperature can bounce around a lot when it's really cold, both in daylight and at night. You don't see that with moderate or hot temperatures. Sometimes, for example, I'll see my temperature warm up by a degree Celsius before cooling back down. Is this due to wind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Various locations in NE/NC IL at 11PM CST (warmest to coldest), including wind speed. The UHI at ORD is ridiculous. They have 13" of snow on the ground and still can't radiate at all. Must be fun to have jet exhaust, parking lots, and thousands of cars running in the area 24/7. Kankakee (50 miles south of ORD) is 13 degrees colder, with about the same snow depth and wind speed. Chicago (ORD): 1, NW 6 mph DuPage Airport (DPA): -5, W 3 mph De Kalb (DKB): -6, W 9 mph Rockford (RFD): -9, S 5 mph Joliet (JOT): -11, calm Kankakee (IKK): -12, W 6 mph Aurora (ARR): -18, W 6 mph Rochelle (RPJ): -19, SW 5 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I've often wondered why the temperature can bounce around a lot when it's really cold, both in daylight and at night. You don't see that with moderate or hot temperatures. Sometimes, for example, I'll see my temperature warm up by a degree Celsius before cooling back down. Is this due to wind? I think the deep/dry snow cover can help strengthen the low-level inversion a bit, making for large changes with any disruption in the layer effect from the inversion. The deep/dry snow cover allows the very cold air to settle right to the surface with very little convective warm currents being allowed to radiate upward from the surface to help mix things. So any disruption to the extreme inversion on nights like this would likely only come from the wind stirring things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Various locations in NE/NC IL at 11PM CST (warmest to coldest), including wind speed. The UHI at ORD is ridiculous. They have 13" of snow on the ground and still can't radiate at all. Must be fun to have jet exhaust, parking lots, and thousands of cars running in the area 24/7. Kankakee (50 miles south of ORD) is 13 degrees colder, with about the same snow depth and wind speed. Chicago (ORD): 1, NW 6 mph DuPage Airport (DPA): -5, W 3 mph De Kalb (DKB): -6, W 9 mph Rockford (RFD): -9, S 5 mph Joliet (JOT): -11, calm Kankakee (IKK): -12, W 6 mph Aurora (ARR): -18, W 6 mph Rochelle (RPJ): -19, SW 5 mph Just upriver at Sterling they're down to -24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I've often wondered why the temperature can bounce around a lot when it's really cold, both in daylight and at night. You don't see that with moderate or hot temperatures. Sometimes, for example, I'll see my temperature warm up by a degree Celsius before cooling back down. Is this due to wind? When the ambient air mass isn't all that cold at 850 mb and/or 925 mb (like this evening), you need perfectly clear skies, light winds, and deep snowpack to get really cold temps to generate radiational cooling. If anything disturbs this (such as clouds or wind) for even a short amount of time, the air mixes and temps shoot up. This is different than the cold outbreak in early Jan 2014, which was mainly a cold advection event with a very cold air mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Still 2 at MKE, doesn't help that there's a NW wind blowing across the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Just upriver at Sterling they're down to -24. Nice - I forgot about that place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Nice - I forgot about that place. They just bounced up 13 degrees to -11 lol. Probably gonna be seeing incredible temp fluctuations all night in the more exposed sites. Temps here have been bouncing around, but nothing like what DVN/Clinton/Sterling has experienced so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Had a few peaks of sun but the familiar gray quickly took over today. It hit 21F and felt balmy lol. I continued taking pics at a record pace this winter . Went to the park, and didnt go too far because walking in the deep snow is actually quite the workout! Great photos michsnowfreak! I'm so jealous. I can only dream about that much snow. Here in my neighborhood we're down to 13 and headed towards another morning with lows in the single digits. It wouldn't shock me if this is the last time we hit single digits this season with the warmup coming. Our below zero days are pretty much sure to be over as after today we've only had five instances where temperatures have gotten below zero this late into winter. Although, we have recorded single digit lows as late as March 28th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Lowest temp of -21 at Aurora so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW Storm Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I look forward to the warmup coming in a week. Funny when you think that 37 is warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 -10 at LAF and winds have been calm for a while. If that continues then we may have at least an outside shot at -20. Temp has been going down 1-2 degrees per hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 lets do 50's and baby oil! Imagine how much dog **** is buried under chicago snow.. poor Mississippi river taking it all four seasons form chitcago this yr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 -16 here now. Dew at a ridiculous -21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Hmmm, I just found out this little fact. Pretty impressive considering it was in the wake of January 1999. It just goes to show how unpredictable the rest of the winter can be going forward. On February 11, 1999, the temperature rose to 70 degrees in Detroit. This is the earliest 70 degree day ever recorded in the city of Detroit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This is one of my unofficial thermometers from a bit ago. Due to the deep snow cover below this sensor it's closer to ground level than normal. Probably only 2-3ft above the snow, but gives an idea of how cold it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 what a turrible climate and last 3 winters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Hmmm, I just found out this little fact. Pretty impressive considering it was in the wake of January 1999. It just goes to show how unpredictable the rest of the winter can be going forward. I literally cannot imagine that right now. 15 years ago, but feels like a lifetime ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexanderhall Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Urban Heat Island in full effect in Chicago. -21 in Aurora, +7 downtown (Northerly Island) at 2:00 am. One of the bigger heat island city/Aurora temperature differences I've seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Hmmm, I just found out this little fact. Pretty impressive considering it was in the wake of January 1999. It just goes to show how unpredictable the rest of the winter can be going forward. That winter was a disaster except for 3 weeks. Especially February 1999. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 -17º the min at LAF, as of 7:00am. IKK as low as -21º. Coldest of the season for both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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