Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 This is one of those system that it mgith be fun to be hunkered down in a cottage at CC National Seashore. Quite cold and wintry. Yeah, Monomoy FTW That's about what is modeled at the moment. It's not really until after 06z where it moves more nrly. Agreed, we won't see much north push until after 1030 or 11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Hoping the 23z RAP has the wrong idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 Will say Box is way more bold than I'd be at this stage. I feel comfortable still with .5 to about 1.5" here, east of about Exit 3 on Rte 6 1.5 to 3", out by Chatham to ACK 2-4" N&W of me a dusting to about 3/4" should do it. I'm not all that enthused, nice little system though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 Hoping the 23z RAP has the wrong idea I think it's fine...in line with the 12z Euro and most others in indicating the "real" snow will cutoff somewhere around me. It's about out of its usefulness now, it seems like once systems begin to exist primarily near/off the coast at init...it becomes totally useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Hoping the 23z RAP has the wrong idea The RAP giveth T+12hr. The RAP taketh T+ 11hr. It's got a NW bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 The RAP giveth T+12hr. The RAP taketh T+ 11hr. It's got a NW bias. I think the models that pushed precip well N&W will bust. This will end up being flurries/light snow showers aside of extreme SE MA and probably the canal S&E. But we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I feel like in a prog flow, any late NW ticks by guidance need to be taken lightly. we've seen it a couple times this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 I feel like in a prog flow, any late NW ticks by guidance need to be taken lightly. we've seen it a couple times this winter. It's very banded to our SW. The main band looks to me like it's on a trajectory to miss me to the east. Decent other returns around DCA may make it up across but I don't think they're dropping any real precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Anyone hear of any reports yet, of precip on the south shore of LI or out on the islands? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 0z NAM looks fine for what Box has forecast for the main area, probably too aggressive N&W but we'll have to wait and see. Radar looks good to the SW but it's a lot of virga for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Im looking at radar blossom near dc and over Delmarva moving ne (not ene) If one looks at the lift around 5H , there is nice VV's modeled where precip is blossoming (now and esp at 0z) as VV's increase from low to hour 0z to 3z , this is showing up on radar now. Not sure if its hitting ground but (if its is) then things look intriguing for rest of nite. I will look at mid atl obs. I havent look'd at wind direction forecast , but i would be happy if there is any easterly (nne) component after midnite) If you look at 18z gfs or new nam you can see VV's really get going at 5H now and that lift overspreads sne esp (s) of route 2 between midnite and 3am (sw to ne) and last to 9z (sw) and 11-12z (ne) i think we have to watch HFD to BOS for a cpl hours of steady snow from like midnite to 6am (from sw to ne) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 Im looking at radar blossom near dc and over Delmarva moving ne (not ene) If one looks at the lift around 5H , there is nice VV's modeled at that level right where precip is blossoming just as VV's increase from low to much better hour 0z to 3z , this is showing up on radar now. No sure if its hitting ground but (if its is) then i def like this area to blossom. If you look at 18z gfs or new nam you can see VV's really get going at 5H now and that lift overspreads sne esp (s) of route 2 between midnite and 3am (sw to ne) i think we have to watch HFD to BOS for a cpl hours of steady snow from like midnite to 6am (from sw to ne) Yeah radar looks nice. I was just watching it being to show signs of the "lift" north. I think we may have a little bit of a sharp edge to the serious stuff but let's see. Note on the 0z NAM vs even the 18z...how much the models are still struggling with the strength/speed of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I should say gfs is really confined to se mass with good 5h lift while nam gets a further nw (with some lift like HFD to BoS but again better se mass/cape I think it may rip from EWB to PYM if gfs is right, best lift on gfs is actually like 11-2 am. Nam a tad later and bit more impressive ...again esp EWB to PYM/GHG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 I should say gfs is really confined to se mass with good 5h lift while nam gets a further nw (with some lift like HFD to BoS but again better se mass/cape I think it may rip from EWB to PYM if gfs is right, best lift on gfs is actually like 11-2 am. Nam a tad later and bit more impressive ...again esp EWB to PYM/GHG 4km nam shows the pounding pretty well. Let's see how this develops. As usual I'll have to stay up all night or get up early or just say F'it, not worth it and go to sleep. MOST of the time I end up tired and looking at about 1/2" of snow in these situations :0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 RGEM bumped the 5mm a little NW over the cape tonight. Pretty much just settling on consensus while the radar still blossoms to the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 yea, nam would be a nice for you eastern folks. curious what its 12hr verification scores are like lmao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Anyone hear of any reports yet, of precip on the south shore of LI or out on the islands? Still nothing here where I am on Long Island. A lot of virga for now. I'll be happy with 1-2" by dawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Anyone hear of any reports yet, of precip on the south shore of LI or out on the islands? ..as of 10:15..nothing here on the south shore of LI..I'm in eastport which is just west of westhampton beach.. hoping for an inch or two out on the east end.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 radar is really impressive in those bands to the SW. Ground truth seems less impressive but it's also falling in areas where there are limited webcams/stations. Trajectory is favorable for SE NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 radar is really impressive in those bands to the SW. Ground truth seems less impressive but it's also falling in areas where there are limited webcams/stations. Trajectory is favorable for SE NE. DC is getting mod snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 DC is getting mod snow yea, sterling still not impressed fwiw. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1003 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... -- Changed Discussion -- WE`VE HAD TWO REPORTS OF 1" IN ST. MARYS CO...ONLY T ELSEWHERE. LATEST RGNL STLT IMGRY NOT LOOKING OVERLY IMPRESSIVE - BUT WL LET THE ADVSRY TAKE ITS COURSE. THERE WL BE SOME SNOW IN THE ADVSRY AREA...AND ST. MARYS MAY INDEED RCV 2" TNGT. THIS SHOULD BE WELL E OF THE CWA BY 12Z WED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 DC is getting mod snow Looks like a nice band of snow but it's bark is worse than the bite so far. regardless...let's see where it ends up. There's nothing on the other side of it so stakes are high. Trajectory to me puts it over the eastern 2/3 of the cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Looks like a nice band of snow but it's bark is worse than the bite so far. regardless...let's see where it ends up. There's nothing on the other side of it so stakes are high. Trajectory to me puts it over the eastern 2/3 of the cape. Ian said it's moderate snow. I trust him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 Ian said it's moderate snow. I trust him Webcams show some covered highways etc, so there's some nice snow. of note it's further NW than the GFS and RAP had it...no surprise here we go again with the best banding on the NW edge. It's way more impressive than I expected to see at this point. Now we just need to get it up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Snowing here in NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 Harv pulled the chute N&W of me.....he has 2-4" up to about Exit 4 on Rte 3 and over to about 195/495...and then 3-6 over the islands. But very little N&W of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Snowing here in NYCnice Ant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 Looks fine..noting returns off Delmarva diminish as the band to the west plumps up. This is probably going to have winters and losers up here with the banding which may mean ACK isn't necessarily the jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Looks fine..noting returns off Delmarva diminish as the band to the west plumps up. This is probably going to have winters and losers up here with the banding which may mean ACK isn't necessarily the jackpot. I smell positive bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I smell positive bust I agree. I think we see an inch or two overnight. I'm expecting it to start snowing any minute now and heading toward your area soon. Hopefully you're not too far north. Although I expect the casino area should be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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