Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Meh.Euro has sucked from the get go with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Euro has sucked from the get go with this. Maybe it'll suck for Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Nice little nw ticks for you capers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Euro tickles 0.10" to the outer Cape and 0.05" to the canal. 0.25" is just SE of ACK. Nice light snow for the Cape folks and a little more for the Island folks. Blair will be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 Euro bumped east which really brings my interest down given ncep guidance propensity to be too far west. That said of interest was the rgem finally bringing the heavy stuff right almost to ack. That isn't really a good thing as it would prevent much precip west. I'll take the rgem and euro combo. Dusting to 2" cape wide. Pending the 12z. A 40 mile shift is the difference between 0 and 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Euro bumped east which really brings my interest down given ncep guidance propensity to be too far west. That said of interest was the rgem finally bringing the heavy stuff right almost to ack. That isn't really a good thing as it would prevent much precip west. I'll take the rgem and euro combo. Dusting to 2" cape wide. Pending the 12z. A 40 mile shift is the difference between 0 and 4 09z SREFs are like 0.1" up to the Canal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I would say a 50 mile shift is the difference between 0" and 6", its that close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 . cant delete posts and the next one is redundant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 SO here's the storm total on the NAM. This really is right off Harv's 11pm map last night. We all know he's a legend but he was out there compared to others last night. If this happens.... take a bow Harv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 SO here's the storm total on the NAM. This really is right off Harv's 11pm map last night. We all know he's a legend but he was out there compared to others last night. If this happens.... take a bow Harv. GFS had that too last night. I dunno..I have a hard time for my area seeing an inch.These storms are always...always sneaky but there is a lot of dry air to overcome. Much better chance down by you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 GFS had that too last night. I dunno..I have a hard time for my area seeing an inch.These storms are always...always sneaky but there is a lot of dry air to overcome. Much better chance down by you. Yeah the gorilla in the room is the dry surface winds. No low level ocean winds to help. I don't know pending the rest of the suite I think C-2" is the safe play. If this ends up being a C-5" in the SE 1/4 of new England...lol... This winter is making it tough on the pros. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I think the NAM sees the sharper Central US trough as an arctic jet disturbance injects into the trough and swings the trough neutral to negative as it reaches the coast. Right now there is so much energy in the trough that at any moment it can swing neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I don't think the NAM sees anything the other models have missed. Wishful thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 No argument on the dry periphery. Cape/Islands accum snow is a safe call. SE MA probably gets some light snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 12z NAM now bringing an inch or two to the CT shoreline tomorrow morning...which I don't think is a terribly surprising trend. For once in my life not hoping for a last minute trend in my favor. Leaving for Florida first thing tomorrow. Hope you guys out towards the Cape get a decent event! Also going to enjoy watching NC get the goods today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 What was Harvey's map last night at 11? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 What was Harvey's map last night at 11? c-2" in Boston, Providence and even SE CT. 2-4 and then 3-6 on the outer cape. Pretty much verbatim the 12z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 It's a cape cod winter for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 12z RGEM similar to the NAM. It's wetter than it's previous runs. Boy, models had a horrible time with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 12z RGEM similar to the NAM. It's wetter than it's previous runs. Boy, models had a horrible time with this system. They're never going to be perfect at the scale we are talking (15-30mi) so any subtle shift has sensible changes to the average person. I see nothing wrong with the above map as well as BOX's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 12z RGEM similar to the NAM. It's wetter than it's previous runs. Boy, models had a horrible time with this system. hi Res NAM is very aggressive, suddenly I have interest, heard only flurries on the Cape yesterday so big changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 They're never going to be perfect at the scale we are talking (15-30mi) so any subtle shift has sensible changes to the average person. I see nothing wrong with the above map as well as BOX's.150 mile shift in 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 150 mile shift in 24 hours Yesterday, yes. Now little nuances will impact those on the northern edge. Sure dry air will need to be overcome but some light snows should fall right up to the MA/CT/RI border in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 BIG shift on the GFS compared to the 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Yesterday, yes. Now little nuances will impact those on the northern edge. Sure dry air will need to be overcome but some light snows should fall right up to the MA/CT/RI border in the east.is it done shifting? Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 BIG shift on the GFS compared to the 6z Looks nice actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 is it done shifting? Interesting Wholesale shifts? Yes, it's done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Wholesale shifts? Yes, it's done.would not take a wholesale shift to bring warning snows to the cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 GFS essentially agrees with the NAM/RGEM. It'd be a dusting to an inch or two Boston/Providence/SE CT down to about the canal, 1-3" on the Cape and then 2-4/5" outer cape and ACK. Going to be a sharp cutoff too, which is why the area around the canal may be in the same boat as say Taunton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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