Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 RAP continues to ramp up..almost gets the "comma head" haha...of this little system up into SE MA proper now, and all of SNE is in some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Well 12z nam from 6z to 12z has nice lookin 5h VV's for most in sne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 RAP continues to ramp up..almost gets the "comma head" haha...of this little system up into SE MA proper now, and all of SNE is in some snow.Even Lowell? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 12z euro is a big bump N&W this run...gets good snows even into LI now although it has this weird ENE shunt just before SNE on round 1 with the first pulse which is probably wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 This can only come so far nw as the s/w that drops in from the pv shoves it E. But its been modelled to drop in the backside a tiny bit more past couple days. Every little but helps here for you SE folks. Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 Even Lowell? It does bring some measurable but remember the RAP beyond 5-6 hours is erratic at times. It does bring the core of pulse 1 over E Cape Cod and ACK which will be interesting. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=rap&area=namer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 It does bring some measurable but remember the RAP beyond 5-6 hours is erratic at times. It does bring the core of pulse 1 over E Cape Cod and ACK which will be interesting. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=rap&area=namer I really wouldn't pay much attention to the RAP at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 it would be more accurate (i think) to say RAP has a NW bias after 10-12 hrs sounds like this kicker is f'n things up ...for sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... TONIGHT... MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP COASTAL LOW PRESSURE OFF FLORIDA TODAY AND MOVE IT NORTHEAST TONIGHT. THE FORECAST TRACK IS STILL WELL OUTSIDE THE BENCHMARK. BUT THE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD EXTENDS NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS MODEL RUN CARRIES PCPN FARTHER NORTH/WEST TO A BOSTON-WILLIMANTIC LINE AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE FARTHER. OUR FORECAST WILL USE A BLEND OF MODELS...WHICH WILL CARRY MEASURABLE SNOW TO PROVIDENCE AND TO THE SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF BOSTON. THIS WILL BRING A LITTLE MORE QPF INTO CAPE COD AND ISLANDS...WHICH TRANSLATES TO MORE SNOW ESPECIALLY AT THESE TEMPERATURES. LOOKING AT ROUGHLY 3 INCHES ON THE CAPE AND MVY...AND 4-5 INCHES ON NANTUCKET. WE WILL ISSUE SNOW ADVISORIES FOR THESE AREAS. IF THE TRACK SHIFTS FARTHER NORTH/WEST ON THE NEXT MODEL SUITE THEN THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED. WEDNESDAY... COASTAL NEW ENGLAND WILL BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET DURING THE MORNING...SO EXPECT LINGERING SNOW AT THIS TIME. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ON CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. ALL SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REASSERT ITSELF WITH CLEARING SKIES. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES LESS COLD...SO EXPECT MAX SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 I really wouldn't pay much attention to the RAP at this time. --below-- it would be more accurate (i think) to say RAP has a NW bias after 10-12 hrs It's right in consensus with the rest of the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Getting cloudy here, 19F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 15z SREFS moved NW, .1" up to Braintree and cutting into S RI, .25" up over about the eastern 1/2 of the Cape and part of the vineyard and S&E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 15z SREFs took a healthy bump NW. 0.1" line goes from just S of BOS to PVD/GON. 0.25" CHH/MVY. About a 20-30mi jump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 1 or 2 20-30 miles jumps and we may be in business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 lol Scott. At the same time we posted them. I think all guidance is on board now for a light event for the Cape/Islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 1 or 2 20-30 miles jumps and we may be in business Well I think it's going to snow for you, maybe 1/4"-1/2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 lol Scott. At the same time we posted them. I think all guidance is on board now for a light event for the Cape/Islands. Very much a nowcast though. I still expect to see some bumping. I mean right now this systems looks atrocious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 By early evening the QPF shield will really blossom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 By early evening the QPF shield will really blossom. Yeah patience is a virtue here. Looks like another double header too with one pulse and then another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 By early evening the QPF shield will really blossom. Yeah, it hasn't tapped the Gulf yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 15z SREFs took a healthy bump NW. 0.1" line goes from just S of BOS to PVD/GON. 0.25" CHH/MVY. About a 20-30mi jump. Beware the SREFs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 NAM sort of waffling a bit, seemed like it was a little less with QPF NW of the canal. I still don't hold out for much more than a coating here, just SE of BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Taking out the bullish SREFs members gives a general 1-3" in SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 NAM sort of waffling a bit, seemed like it was a little less with QPF NW of the canal. I still don't hold out for much more than a coating here, just SE of BOS. Yeah I think it's getting a clue now, the cutoff is likely to be right around me and I may be on the 40/70 Ray conniption side of it. It'll be a sharp cutoff I think from 0 to a few inches and then maybe 4-6" on ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 NAM sort of waffling a bit, seemed like it was a little less with QPF NW of the canal. I still don't hold out for much more than a coating here, just SE of BOS. It trimmed back the 0.1" line but the 0.25" line is the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 ACK may get a solid snowstorm out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 It trimmed back the 0.1" line but the 0.25" line is the same. Yeah...it's pretty much a nowcast deal. I could see this being a virga storm here for a while and maybe nea Scott and especially east get a decent little event. HYA and points S and E may get a nice advisory with ACK it's own private little storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Yeah...it's pretty much a nowcast deal. I could see this being a virga storm here for a while and maybe nea Scott and especially east get a decent little event. HYA and points S and E may get a nice advisory with ACK it's own private little storm. Yup, that's how I feel. Honestly it's not about the outcome. It's just following a system to learn. I think 1/2" imby is a safe call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I think 2" is a safe bet here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 NAM is about 5" while the GFS is about 7", that is factoring in a 15, 20:1 ratios involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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