Mikehobbyst Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Will this cold snowy pattern end gradually within the next 2-3 weeks, or will a NESIS 5 storm likely end it and snap this pattern ? Are there any signs of us getting into the 25-30 degree range on a steady basis after the two week pattern hardly making 20 for highs. When is our next 40 ? When is our next cutter w/ rain. Is this 6-8 weeks away from happening ? Just questions in my mind and to see if we have any chance of a mild up within the next four weeks, or no hope at all... Do any of you think we could have a 20 inch snowpack on the ground from 1/28 to 2/15 potentially ? Are we in a 1 in 200 year type historical long duration freeze? Once in a generation event unfolding right in front of us ? I think we will shatter the following records between now and 2/28: Longest subfreezing period since records began, for NYC might be upon us. 30-40 day subfreezing span looks likely from now till the last week in Feb as quite possible and viable with stable frigid pattern (-EPO, +PNA and P. Vortex parked in SE Canada for weeks on end..... I would love to have a summer with 65-70 highs with full sun. Would think after this coldest winter in many decades is over. Spring may struggle 40-45 degree highs until Mid May. Back door season could be very brutal this spring. I bet spring will be like March from April through Memorial Day, and this summer will be like early May weather at its worse. It is just a feeling I have very strongly for this upcoming lack of warm season this year. I bet our ocean water temps will be 15 degrees below normal for Spring and summer, meaning 40 degree water until late May and 55-60 degree water during the summer this year. I bet this will happen... It just seems like we are in for a never before weather pattern that will taake us potentially into unchartered territory. Mets is this maybe possible ? This is definately a volcano responsible winter somehow, or some major force we have yet to learn .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I expect it will swing to the other extreme at some point in late March and April and become toasty warm for a few weeks. While the severe cold probably won't lock in for every day to that transition, it will probably reload after brief warmings a couple of times in late Feb and early March, then things will reverse to much warmer. Beyond that, it could once again become colder than average for some part of May-June. The sort of prolonged month after month cold you mention is more typical of years in the heart of the 19th century cold regime such as 1875, 1883, 1885 -- this will probably be more like 1920 or 1977. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted January 22, 2014 Author Share Posted January 22, 2014 I expect it will swing to the other extreme at some point in late March and April and become toasty warm for a few weeks. While the severe cold probably won't lock in for every day to that transition, it will probably reload after brief warmings a couple of times in late Feb and early March, then things will reverse to much warmer. Beyond that, it could once again become colder than average for some part of May-June. The sort of prolonged month after month cold you mention is more typical of years in the heart of the 19th century cold regime such as 1875, 1883, 1885 -- this will probably be more like 1920 or 1977. So no seeing bare ground until late March for NYC and LI. We would shatter snowcover duration records for 8-9 weeks. This probably never happned in centuries...... Is it possible we hold snow through 3/20/14 with no melt out ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Will this cold snowy pattern end gradually within the next 2-3 weeks, or will a NESIS 5 storm likely end it and snap this pattern ? Are there any signs of us getting into the 25-30 degree range on a steady basis after the two week pattern hardly making 20 for highs. When is our next 40 ? When is our next cutter w/ rain. Is this 6-8 weeks away from happening ? Just questions in my mind and to see if we have any chance of a mild up within the next four weeks, or no hope at all... Do any of you think we could have a 20 inch snowpack on the ground from 1/28 to 2/15 potentially ? Are we in a 1 in 200 year type historical long duration freeze? Once in a generation event unfolding right in front of us ? I think we will shatter the following records between now and 2/28: Longest subfreezing period since records began, for NYC might be upon us. 30-40 day subfreezing span looks likely from now till the last week in Feb as quite possible and viable with stable frigid pattern (-EPO, +PNA and P. Vortex parked in SE Canada for weeks on end..... I would love to have a summer with 65-70 highs with full sun. Would think after this coldest winter in many decades is over. Spring may struggle 40-45 degree highs until Mid May. Back door season could be very brutal this spring. I bet spring will be like March from April through Memorial Day, and this summer will be like early May weather at its worse. It is just a feeling I have very strongly for this upcoming lack of warm season this year. I bet our ocean water temps will be 15 degrees below normal for Spring and summer, meaning 40 degree water until late May and 55-60 degree water during the summer this year. I bet this will happen... It just seems like we are in for a never before weather pattern that will taake us potentially into unchartered territory. Mets is this maybe possible ? This is definately a volcano responsible winter somehow, or some major force we have yet to learn .... Dude you are insane. Plenty of warmth to flood us once the pattern changes. Even when the pattern relaxed this month we got up to around 60 with ease. It will be another long and hot summer, as nearly every single one over the past 15-20 years has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Dude you are insane. Plenty of warmth to flood us once the pattern changes. Even when the pattern relaxed this month we got up to around 60 with ease. It will be another long and hot summer, as nearly every single one over the past 15-20 years has been. lol I hope so last summer was terrible, was barely able to use my pool even with a solar cover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 You're going overboard, maybe falling victim of mainstream media. This isn't a historical cold snap by any means. Cold yes, long yes, but historical is pushing it. Call me back when this is like 1934 or any winter of the 1800's (preferably 1816). You're extremely exaggerating the cold. It's not going to be 40-45 degrees in May, water temps aren't going to be that cold. No way. This has happened before in 1816, everyone would enjoy reading this... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_Without_a_Summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Dude you are insane. Plenty of warmth to flood us once the pattern changes. Even when the pattern relaxed this month we got up to around 60 with ease. It will be another long and hot summer, as nearly every single one over the past 15-20 years has been. Last summer was not long and hot. It was short and hot. July was the hot month, Aug and June finished average to slighly below average....do agree with your first part-one lakes cutter would wipe out this snow no problem....look at what's happened earlier this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick T Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Lil' ice age until.... Feb 4th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Will this cold snowy pattern end gradually within the next 2-3 weeks, or will a NESIS 5 storm likely end it and snap this pattern ? Are there any signs of us getting into the 25-30 degree range on a steady basis after the two week pattern hardly making 20 for highs. When is our next 40 ? When is our next cutter w/ rain. Is this 6-8 weeks away from happening ? Just questions in my mind and to see if we have any chance of a mild up within the next four weeks, or no hope at all... Do any of you think we could have a 20 inch snowpack on the ground from 1/28 to 2/15 potentially ? Are we in a 1 in 200 year type historical long duration freeze? Once in a generation event unfolding right in front of us ? I think we will shatter the following records between now and 2/28: Longest subfreezing period since records began, for NYC might be upon us. 30-40 day subfreezing span looks likely from now till the last week in Feb as quite possible and viable with stable frigid pattern (-EPO, +PNA and P. Vortex parked in SE Canada for weeks on end..... I would love to have a summer with 65-70 highs with full sun. Would think after this coldest winter in many decades is over. Spring may struggle 40-45 degree highs until Mid May. Back door season could be very brutal this spring. I bet spring will be like March from April through Memorial Day, and this summer will be like early May weather at its worse. It is just a feeling I have very strongly for this upcoming lack of warm season this year. I bet our ocean water temps will be 15 degrees below normal for Spring and summer, meaning 40 degree water until late May and 55-60 degree water during the summer this year. I bet this will happen... It just seems like we are in for a never before weather pattern that will taake us potentially into unchartered territory. Mets is this maybe possible ? This is definately a volcano responsible winter somehow, or some major force we have yet to learn .... :axe: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongIslandWx Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 The subfreezing stretch may in fact end on Saturday as the park gets to 33 or so ahead of the next front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Last summer was not long and hot. It was short and hot. July was the hot month, Aug and June finished average to slighly below average....do agree with your first part-one lakes cutter would wipe out this snow no problem....look at what's happened earlier this winter Well to be fair from NYC and points south, a typical summer is pretty hot and humid. Mid 80s with mid 70s dews (and it was pretty humid this summer) makes it pretty sticky out. Last summer the park had in JJA for days with max dewpoint over 70: June: 9 (73) July: 22 (76) Aug: 8 (75) Lots of lows of 70+ has also been a hallmark of recent summers. Last year? June: 9 (74) July: 23 (83 - 3 straight nights above 80) Aug: 13 (74) Agree it was nothing crazy (except mid July), but still pretty warm. I mean, it is summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 The subfreezing stretch may in fact end on Saturday as the park gets to 33 or so ahead of the next front.Even if it does it'll be very short lived as the temps crash once the storm passes NE of us. In the grand scheme of things it won't make the cold any less impressive to the average person but for us weenies 33 for hours kills the below freezing streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongIslandWx Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Even if it does it'll be very short lived as the temps crash once the storm passes NE of us. In the grand scheme of things it won't make the cold any less impressive to the average person but for us weenies 33 for hours kills the below freezing streak. Exactly, but it'll be annoying if a 33 degree day breaks what could be an impressive below freezing streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Will this cold snowy pattern end gradually within the next 2-3 weeks, or will a NESIS 5 storm likely end it and snap this pattern ? Are there any signs of us getting into the 25-30 degree range on a steady basis after the two week pattern hardly making 20 for highs. When is our next 40 ? When is our next cutter w/ rain. Is this 6-8 weeks away from happening ? Just questions in my mind and to see if we have any chance of a mild up within the next four weeks, or no hope at all... Do any of you think we could have a 20 inch snowpack on the ground from 1/28 to 2/15 potentially ? Are we in a 1 in 200 year type historical long duration freeze? Once in a generation event unfolding right in front of us ? I think we will shatter the following records between now and 2/28: Longest subfreezing period since records began, for NYC might be upon us. 30-40 day subfreezing span looks likely from now till the last week in Feb as quite possible and viable with stable frigid pattern (-EPO, +PNA and P. Vortex parked in SE Canada for weeks on end..... I would love to have a summer with 65-70 highs with full sun. Would think after this coldest winter in many decades is over. Spring may struggle 40-45 degree highs until Mid May. Back door season could be very brutal this spring. I bet spring will be like March from April through Memorial Day, and this summer will be like early May weather at its worse. It is just a feeling I have very strongly for this upcoming lack of warm season this year. I bet our ocean water temps will be 15 degrees below normal for Spring and summer, meaning 40 degree water until late May and 55-60 degree water during the summer this year. I bet this will happen... It just seems like we are in for a never before weather pattern that will taake us potentially into unchartered territory. Mets is this maybe possible ? This is definately a volcano responsible winter somehow, or some major force we have yet to learn .... I've argued that we are in a cooling trend overall since the horrifying heat of the Summer of 2010...but the scenario you paint is far, far more extreme than anything I would deem likely. But a cool 2014...with average temperatures running one or two degrees normal...seems to be a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I've argued that we are in a cooling trend overall since the horrifying heat of the Summer of 2010...but the scenario you paint is far, far more extreme than anything I would deem likely. But a cool 2014...with average temperatures running one or two degrees normal...seems to be a possibility. It is worth noting that each summer in succession since that torrid 2010 one has been noticeably cooler in the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 It is worth noting that each summer in succession since that torrid 2010 one has been noticeably cooler in the NYC area. I haven't noticed much of a difference. 2010 was the warmest of the bunch (not noticeably though, to me), but it wasn't nearly as suffocatingly sticky as 2012/2013. And all four July's were pretty similar, temp-wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I haven't noticed much of a difference. 2010 was the warmest of the bunch (not noticeably though, to me), but it wasn't nearly as suffocatingly sticky as 2012/2013. And all four July's were pretty similar, temp-wise. And a world of difference than the previous 4 summers/Julys (06-09) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 This is banter but nobody really cares about summer right now as we have single digits and a snowpack that will last for at least the next 2 weeks, pure heavenly weather, enjoy the cold (brutal below zero windchills while walking outside gives me adrenaline) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 NYC has seen some cool summers along with hot ones since 1990...1996 didn't have a temp over 90 in July...2004 had a max of 86 for July...an all time record low max for the month...The summer of 2000's warmest 30 day period was only 72.7...that's tied for the lowest ever with 1888...2009 was the last cool summer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 This is banter but nobody really cares about summer right now as we have single digits and a snowpack that will last for at least the next 2 weeks, pure heavenly weather, enjoy the cold (brutal below zero windchills while walking outside gives me adrenaline) Some of us like all kinds of weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Will this cold snowy pattern end gradually within the next 2-3 weeks, or will a NESIS 5 storm likely end it and snap this pattern ? Are there any signs of us getting into the 25-30 degree range on a steady basis after the two week pattern hardly making 20 for highs. When is our next 40 ? When is our next cutter w/ rain. Is this 6-8 weeks away from happening ? Just questions in my mind and to see if we have any chance of a mild up within the next four weeks, or no hope at all... Do any of you think we could have a 20 inch snowpack on the ground from 1/28 to 2/15 potentially ? Are we in a 1 in 200 year type historical long duration freeze? Once in a generation event unfolding right in front of us ? I think we will shatter the following records between now and 2/28: Longest subfreezing period since records began, for NYC might be upon us. 30-40 day subfreezing span looks likely from now till the last week in Feb as quite possible and viable with stable frigid pattern (-EPO, +PNA and P. Vortex parked in SE Canada for weeks on end..... I would love to have a summer with 65-70 highs with full sun. Would think after this coldest winter in many decades is over. Spring may struggle 40-45 degree highs until Mid May. Back door season could be very brutal this spring. I bet spring will be like March from April through Memorial Day, and this summer will be like early May weather at its worse. It is just a feeling I have very strongly for this upcoming lack of warm season this year. I bet our ocean water temps will be 15 degrees below normal for Spring and summer, meaning 40 degree water until late May and 55-60 degree water during the summer this year. I bet this will happen... It just seems like we are in for a never before weather pattern that will taake us potentially into unchartered territory. Mets is this maybe possible ? This is definately a volcano responsible winter somehow, or some major force we have yet to learn .... Epic post brah, epic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 This thread is simply the banter version of the other cold outbreak one, even if this cold was indeed historic (which it isn't) what would it have to do with a cool spring? Then a NESIS 5 storm and volcanoes get casually thrown in:) I'm pretty sure the OP was trolling us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Is this entire thread a joke? Lol I can't tell. I'm usually along for the ride with jokes, so hopefully it is ! But if it's serious, this is a pretty extreme cold snap, but as it cooled down so quickly, it can warm up just as quickly. As snow stuck so quickly, temps in the mid 30s and sun can melt it just as quick. What you have stated is that we are basically entering an ice age, and a complete change to what we now know of as the four seasons of weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Is this entire thread a joke? Lol I can't tell. I'm usually along for the ride with jokes, so hopefully it is ! But if it's serious, this is a pretty extreme cold snap, but as it cooled down so quickly, it can warm up just as quickly. As snow stuck so quickly, temps in the mid 30s and sun can melt it just as quick. What you have stated is that we are basically entering an ice age, and a complete change to what we now know of as the four seasons of weatherIt's beyond ridiculous, it seems like someone's doing a sarcastic and highly exaggerated imitation of JB's forecasting style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Will this cold snowy pattern end gradually within the next 2-3 weeks, or will a NESIS 5 storm likely end it and snap this pattern ? Are there any signs of us getting into the 25-30 degree range on a steady basis after the two week pattern hardly making 20 for highs. When is our next 40 ? When is our next cutter w/ rain. Is this 6-8 weeks away from happening ? Just questions in my mind and to see if we have any chance of a mild up within the next four weeks, or no hope at all... Do any of you think we could have a 20 inch snowpack on the ground from 1/28 to 2/15 potentially ? Are we in a 1 in 200 year type historical long duration freeze? Once in a generation event unfolding right in front of us ? I think we will shatter the following records between now and 2/28: Longest subfreezing period since records began, for NYC might be upon us. 30-40 day subfreezing span looks likely from now till the last week in Feb as quite possible and viable with stable frigid pattern (-EPO, +PNA and P. Vortex parked in SE Canada for weeks on end..... I would love to have a summer with 65-70 highs with full sun. Would think after this coldest winter in many decades is over. Spring may struggle 40-45 degree highs until Mid May. Back door season could be very brutal this spring. I bet spring will be like March from April through Memorial Day, and this summer will be like early May weather at its worse. It is just a feeling I have very strongly for this upcoming lack of warm season this year. I bet our ocean water temps will be 15 degrees below normal for Spring and summer, meaning 40 degree water until late May and 55-60 degree water during the summer this year. I bet this will happen... It just seems like we are in for a never before weather pattern that will taake us potentially into unchartered territory. Mets is this maybe possible ? This is definately a volcano responsible winter somehow, or some major force we have yet to learn .... Post more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 It's beyond ridiculous, it seems like someone's doing a sarcastic and highly exaggerated imitation of JB's forecasting style. You haven't seen Mike's posts before? He's notorious for these...at least once or twice a winter he calls for a 1776-77 redux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 It's beyond ridiculous, it seems like someone's doing a sarcastic and highly exaggerated imitation of JB's forecasting style. No, he has posts like this all the time. I think it was last winter when we started getting some snow in Feb/March, he said we wouldn't see a leaf-out until Memorial Day. Riiiigghhhtt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 No, he has posts like this all the time. I think it was last winter when we started getting some snow in Feb/March, he said we wouldn't see a leaf-out until Memorial Day. Riiiigghhhtt.Such weenie much post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 It's beyond ridiculous, it seems like someone's doing a sarcastic and highly exaggerated imitation of JB's forecasting style. Lol it's probably where JB is headed next. JB said this cold snap and snowy weather would be as damaging as a major hurricane in the northeast at least economically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 BTW; if you want to see an impressive anomaly, 1888 was more than 5 degrees below average...for the year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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