Ajdos Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 South trend tmrw...no worries.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Euro is a bit south and wetter, moves the sfc low along I-88 in northern IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Winter Storm Watch issued by GRB for this system. WWA for southern 2/3 of WI. 0z EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 MKX, WWA ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CSTTUESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED AWINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS INEFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY.* TIMING...SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 3 AM TUESDAYMORNING...LINGERING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 6 INCHES TOWARD FOND DU LAC ANDSHEBOYGAN...TO 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE MILWAUKEE METRO AREA...AND 2TO 3 INCHES NEAR BELOIT...LAKE GENEVA AND KENOSHA.* WINDS...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH LATER TONIGHT...BECOMINGNORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH TUESDAYAFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THE EVENING.* IMPACTS...ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CAUSE SLIPPERY ROADS DURINGTHIS TIME. IN ADDITION...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CAUSE SOMEBLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON ANDEVENING...REDUCING VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. 12km NAM 12z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 GGEM probably a bit too far north. Bo would like this though. If it's going to go that far north, take it all the way to the UP.... I'll be there Friday through Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 12z GFS. Brings the 0° line up to Milwaukee, so not sure if this is a true reflection on the southern side of the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Geos- What is your call on MSN/MKE/LSE??? NWS here going 3-5 inches... seems high, but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Geos- What is your call on MSN/MKE/LSE??? NWS here going 3-5 inches... seems high, but who knows. I think all those places has a likely shot at 4". Milwaukee might come up a little short, because of the time of day and that the low pressure will be dragging up milder air. Wouldn't be surprised if your ratios were the highest. RGEM goes ape with the moisture! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Looks like we could have boundary layer issues here tomorrow. If not enough to cause precip to start as rain then enough to cause snow to not accumulate efficiently for some of the time. So all in all I'm thinking an inch or less here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Looking like a nice burst of snow here before the mini dry slot moves in. Could pick up a quick 1-2" if some of these models are correct. Looking at some 40mph gust potential immediately following this thing, so whatever new snow there is will be getting blown all around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 GFS looks a tad bit south...WAA snow looks good with 2-5", highest north of MKE and another 1 to possibly 2 inches with deform band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 RGEM takes the low right over ORD. Colder than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Sfc low stalls for hours on end once it gets to the lake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 FWIW hi-res models further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Yeah the 12z hi res NMM takes the low over MDW Given there are already 1001mb obs in western/NW ND as of 17z, where the NAM is weaker, I think the more amped solutions will be correct. Even the 15z RAP is taking the sfc low down to 994mb but it's north as it moves through southeast MN. Will be interesting to watch p-falls as we go through the day to try to figure out the exact track. Most models do have a pretty intense eastward moving N-S band of snow coming through here tomorrow morning. With such strong WAA across IA/MO it seems like that will be the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Next several days look to be the epitome of stat padding around here. Hard to have much confidence in the timing/strength of disturbances in this type of pattern but I'm a little interested in the one around the 18th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 12z EURO - north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 12z EURO - north 12zeuro011314.jpg like the looks of that, but ratios don't look great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 DLL - in the +SN at 1am tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 This system is quickly getting quite impressive via the latest NAM/RAP trends picking up on a stronger and slightly south track. Could be a 6-10" band in WI with some TSSN further south with the WAA snows early tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 NAM is at its wettest yet. Widespread warning criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 moneyman special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 MKX is favoring the wetter runs. Warning now. WIZ051-052-058>060-140445-/O.UPG.KMKX.WW.Y.0004.140114T0900Z-140115T0000Z//O.NEW.KMKX.WS.W.0001.140114T1300Z-140115T0600Z/FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-DODGE-WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FOND DU LAC...SHEBOYGAN...BEAVER DAM...WEST BEND...PORT WASHINGTON231 PM CST MON JAN 13 2014...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHTCST TUESDAY NIGHT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED AWINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS INEFFECT FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT. THE WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.* TIMING...SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTWISCONSIN FROM 5 AM TO 8 AM AND QUICKLY INTENSIFY.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 7 INCHES.* WINDS...NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH...GUSTING TO30 MPH WITH EVEN HIGHER WINDS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. THE WINDS WILLCAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ATTIMES. 4km NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Quick animated gif comparison of the 18z NAM/RAP for 12z tomorrow. RAP is stronger and further south, what's interesting is how far south the 1000mb contour gets (all the way to the IA/MO border where the NAM keeps it from further north from Cedar Rapids to Clinton. http://i.picasion.com/pic76/103ddb4fb6dcd59fe9ec6242ddf7cd34.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 moneyman special Indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 I have a strange inkling that the "worst of winter" is over for us Toronto folks... Wayyyy to early to say that especially since we aren't at the halfway point of winter yet. It looks like we could be in for more Siberian air come the 26th timeframe, so I wouldn't say the worst of winter is over for us by a long shot. Feb. 4th Buffalos average high temperature goes from 31 to 32 and begins to increase 1-2 degrees each week throughout February. We have 3 more weeks of the coldest weather here. Snowfall wise our peak is Late November to late January which correlates to Lake Erie freezing over. In terms of temperatures, Toronto's lowest averages are during the first two weeks of February as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 17z RAP coming in a good bit south and west of the 15z run through 13hrs. non-starter event for N. IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Call is 3 inches here...and I think that is high...we'll see. We've really missed out on most of the heavier snow totals around these parts... trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 13, 2014 Author Share Posted January 13, 2014 ORD looks good for 1.3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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