Bsudweather Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Still looks to me like some backend snow showers around midday tomorrow for us upstate and NE GA folks. someone might just get surprised if this moisture hangs on just a little longer and gives the cold time to catch up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Still looks to me like some backend snow showers around midday tomorrow for us upstate and NE GA folks. someone might just get surprised if this moisture hangs on just a little longer and gives the cold time to catch up! You have to believe us when we tell you those maps are worthless. There is absolutely no moisture left when the cold air arrives. I would put everyone who is below 1500 feet in elevation at about a 5% chance of seeing flakes and that's being generous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 You have to believe us when we tell you those maps are worthless. There is absolutely no moisture left when the cold air arrives. I would put everyone who is below 1500 feet in elevation at about a 5% chance of seeing flakes and that's being generous No one has to believe you for anything. how are you so sure the GFS will not verify? You don't plain and simple! I don't either but they must be a good chance for us seeing snow or the NWS GSP would not have been forecasting it for 4 days up until yesterday they took it off and now today they have put it back on. Oh wait we should not believe them either? Also how do you know the moisture will not hang on a bit longer for the cold to catch up? you don't! I don't either! but its possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 You have to believe us when we tell you those maps are worthless. There is absolutely no moisture left when the cold air arrives. I would put everyone who is below 1500 feet in elevation at about a 5% chance of seeing flakes and that's being generous No one has to believe you for anything. how are you so sure the GFS will not verify? You don't plain and simple! I don't either but they must be a good chance for us seeing snow or the NWS GSP would not have been forecasting it for 4 days up until yesterday they took it off and now today they have put it back on. Oh wait we should not believe them either? Also how do you know the moisture will not hang on a bit longer for the cold to catch up? you don't! I don't either! but its possible. Lol. Thats what you call a clown snow map. But its cold chasing moisture. Notice on the h7 rh fields. The deepest moisture is east of GSP CLT Now notice the 850 trough axis 0c is lined up with the mountains or should say hung up over the mountains. The moisture is well ahead by the time cold comes rushing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Why does NGA have winter storm watches? Lol. I guess those are for all the mountains areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Why does NGA have winter storm watches? Lol. I guess those are for all the mountains areas? They don't sound too confident.....lol FFC... NOW TO THE WINTER WEATHER THREAT. CHANGES SEEN IN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN SUBTLE BUT SIGNIFICANT WITH -10C SNOW GROWTH ZONE DRYING OUT VERY QUICKLY AS BACK END OF PRECIP MOVES THROUGH. SURFACE PROFILE CERTAINLY SUPPORTS AND CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING PRECIPITATION BUT NOT SURE NOW IT IS GOING TO BE AS MUCH SNOW AS IT IS FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE. COMBINE THAT WITH THE FACT THAT WITH THE RAPID TEMPERATURE DROP OFF WE COULD BE SEEING RESIDUAL WET ROADS FREEZE ANYWAY...AND THIS COULD BE A SETUP FOR A SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL HAZARD MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE ALSO COMES STRONG WINDS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE MAKING TRAVEL EVEN MORE DIFFICULT WITH 20 TO 25 MPH WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS ALL POINTS TO EXCEEDING LOCAL IMPACT BASED THRESHOLDS FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WILL ISSUE ONE FOR WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST GEORGIA WITH EXACT DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT. STILL COULD BE THAT A WARNING IS NEEDED FOR A SMALL GROUP OF COUNTIES IN EXTREME NW TIER DESPITE MY DROP IN ANTICIPATED SNOWFALL TOTALS TO LESS THAN 2 INCHES. THIS WOULD BE IF MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT LATER TODAY ON A COMBINATION FREEZING RAIN/ACCUMULATING SNOW SCENARIO THAT WOULD WOULD REQUIRE MORE THAN AN ADVISORY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 WSI RPM still has a period of sleet/ZR behind the front tomorrow in the ATL area followed by a period of snow showers/flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Buckeyefan1, NWS has taken the snow out of the forecast for Atlanta. Last night it had an 80% of snow mixed with sleet, now it just says rain with a slight chance of freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 WSI RPM still has a period of sleet/ZR behind the front tomorrow in the ATL area followed by a period of snow showers/flurries. Screen Shot 2014-01-05 at 12.10.51 PM.png Cheez what time in the am is that map depicting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Buckeyefan1, NWS has taken the snow out of the forecast for Atlanta. Last night it had an 80% of snow mixed with sleet, now it just says rain with a slight chance of freezing rain. Well, given FFC's track record, this may assure some snow LOL. The previous forecast was likely overdone but they may have gone too far the other direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Cheez what time in the am is that map depicting? 0830 Z- 3:30 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 0830 Z- 3:30 AM Thank you sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 No one has to believe you for anything. how are you so sure the GFS will not verify? You don't plain and simple! I don't either but they must be a good chance for us seeing snow or the NWS GSP would not have been forecasting it for 4 days up until yesterday they took it off and now today they have put it back on. Oh wait we should not believe them either? Also how do you know the moisture will not hang on a bit longer for the cold to catch up? you don't! I don't either! but its possible. What's with the attitude? You won't be here very long with posts like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 What's with the attitude? You won't be here very long with posts like this.Clearly he likes snow and wants snow lol. Winter weather can make people wild. You saw what NCSNOW said to me yesterday and I bet he didn't see any freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Boys I sure wish some of the models would start showing a little more moisture left over after the cold arrives. would love to some snow flying here Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 What's with the attitude? You won't be here very long with posts like this. I don't have an attitude he just makes us think we have to believe EVERYTHING he says when we got a right to discuss what we think! He has hit me with everything I've posted so far like I don't know anything. And no I don't know as much as some on here but I have my right to my thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I don't have an attitude he just makes us think we have to believe EVERYTHING he says when we got a right to discuss what we think! He has hit me with everything I've posted so far like I don't know anything. And no I don't know as much as some on here but I have my right to my thoughts. Discussion does not equal lecture. He might make YOU fell like you have to believe everything he says, but that's your problem. I don't think you will find many, if any, others that feel that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Hate to get al metal69 on y'all, but this is the 2 nd day in a row where the forecast busted by 8-10 degrees on the low side!! Does anyone think a high of 43 instead of 52 today could help get the moisture to changeover to snow tonight / tomorrow a.m behind the front a little quicker? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Hate to get al metal69 on y'all, but this is the 2 nd day in a row where the forecast busted by 8-10 degrees on the low side!! Does anyone think a high of 43 instead of 52 today could help get the moisture to changeover to snow tonight / tomorrow a.m behind the front a little quicker? Yeah it's 40 here right now and was forecasted 48. So a 8 degree bust. But IMO it's gonna all depend if moisture hangs on a little longer tomorrow when temps start crashing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Hate to get al metal69 on y'all, but this is the 2 nd day in a row where the forecast busted by 8-10 degrees on the low side!! Does anyone think a high of 43 instead of 52 today could help get the moisture to changeover to snow tonight / tomorrow a.m behind the front a little quicker? The surface temps aren't the issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Hate to get al metal69 on y'all, but this is the 2 nd day in a row where the forecast busted by 8-10 degrees on the low side!! Does anyone think a high of 43 instead of 52 today could help get the moisture to changeover to snow tonight / tomorrow a.m behind the front a little quicker?Our forecast high was 74 and we are only 63. Forecast highs have been brought down now to 67. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ASU2014 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 No talk on the flash freeze potential? That's more dangerous than snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Our forecast high was 74 and we are only 63. Forecast highs have been brought down now to 67. Considering the thread we are in, are you saying your chances for snow have increased? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 No talk on the flash freeze potential? That's more dangerous than snow showers. Definitely agree there. The models are showing a little bump in temps at CLT before the hammer drops. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Considering the thread we are in, are you saying your chances for snow have increased?Yep. Surprised we don't have winter storm watches up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Wind Chill Warning/Advisory A Wind Chill Warning is issued when wind chill values are forecast to fall to -15F in the lower elevations of our CWA, to -20F in the higher elevations, including the mountains and northern foothills. This product is usually issued within 12 hours of an event. A Wind Chill Advisory is issued when wind chill values are forecast to fall to 0F in the lower elevations of our CWA, to -5F in the higher elevations, including the mountains and northern foothills. This product is usually issued within 12 hours of an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I don't have an attitude he just makes us think we have to believe EVERYTHING he says when we got a right to discuss what we think! He has hit me with everything I've posted so far like I don't know anything. And no I don't know as much as some on here but I have my right to my thoughts. I would like to think that there is a chance that we have some lingering moisture in the post frontal environment, but it is looking very doubtful. What you would hope for is a lee side trough with some upper-level support, but it's just not there on the models. It's getting very late and the time for wetter trends is almost over. not trying to be a Debbie Downer, but we have to accept reality. What I expect to happen is a line of rain showers followed by a brief chance of flurries. That is until the atmosphere completely dries out, which won't take very long with that type of cold dry air rushing in. This will still be an exciting day regardless of whether we see snow or not (unless you're Brick. He hates cold and dry) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I would like to think that there is a chance that we have some lingering moisture in the post frontal environment, but it is looking very doubtful. What you would hope for is a lee side trough with some upper-level support, but it's just not there on the models. It's getting very late and the time for wetter trends is almost over. not trying to be a Debbie Downer, but we have to accept reality. What I expect to happen is a line of rain showers followed by a brief chance of flurries. That is until the atmosphere completely dries out, which won't take very long with that type of cold dry air rushing in. This will still be an exciting day regardless of whether we see snow or not (unless you're Brick. He hates cold and dry) I agree with that, I know it sounds like I am wish casting but I'm not. I also was not saying we are getting a sig snow. All I was saying is that the GFS was showing some leftover moisture when the cold arrives where as you said we could see flurries or even a snow shower or two. We never know what's gonna verify. I will say this is definently gonna be a nowcast situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 some flurries would be a bonus considering the frontal passage and temp plunge usually a front moves through, the winds pick up and dry out the roads etc before the temp crashes. from what i have seen on the surface map temps as the front is moving towards the se shows 40/50s and then a very fast drop off below freezing. that was out by little rock, memphis etc. there are some warm temps around here as well, but the wedge has kept a fair number of us in the 30s so its already pretty cold and wet, and with a quick drop below freezing there might not be as much of a chance for the winds to dry thing out this time. should be interesting lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Clearly he likes snow and wants snow lol. Winter weather can make people wild. You saw what NCSNOW said to me yesterday and I bet he didn't see any freezing rain. Actually Metal it did just on metal surfaces around midnight last night, Also Rah/NWS ended up putting my county under a freezing rain advisory until 10:00 a.m, however we where at 34 at 6:30 this morning. I was weighing in about insu-cad dynamics, surely wasn't expecting any snow. Event wasn't a big deal nor was I expecting it to be nothing more than anything trivial. My beef with you was a feeling you sorta troll when people are discussing possible events. I certainly don't mind opinions in favor or against an event occuring, Just seems you like to play the role of antagonist alot. If I'm wrong my bad, and keep firing away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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