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18z Model Discussion (1/1/14)


SACRUS

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Something happened at 500mb between hours 39 and 42 which caused the trough to suddenly de-amplify. Instead of the coastal being forced north it gets shunted quickly ENE. We're saved by the inverted trough. Otherwise this would have been like a 6 hour event.

 

that doesn't sound right. should continue on that trajectory not get shunted. any mets chime in on that output?

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4k NAM totals are 12-15" for Northeast NJ, NYC and Long Island away from the immediate shoreline. 15-18" for the NW areas like Vernon up through Orange County.

 

 

Would not be surprised to see 20:1 - 30:1 ratios up this way. The brunt of the storm falls while temps are in the single digits. We also benefit from the initial WAA snow tonight which should drop 2-4"

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If you count the placement of the initial light snow tonight and tomorrow morning like the Euro shows, and then add in the NAM for the coastal and inverted trough, it would be a long duration mostly light snow event with a majority of the snow falling in less than 12 hours.

This is a progressive storm, no doubt about it. That's why I think amounts over 12" will be very few outside of maybe easternmost Mass. 6-10" or 6-12" is probably the best call for the region now.

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another shift west and some better banding on 18z gfs maybe paul? where I am in SW Suffolk I should jackpot pretty nicely as it should be around 15:1

You just wana see 1 inch QPF model support right now the mean is prob .75. Let the higher res come to it

And if it 1 then it's 12 to 15.

I'm still using .75 in my mind as a base

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... Blizzard Warning in effect from 6 PM Thursday to 1 PM EST
Friday... 

The National Weather Service in New York has issued a Blizzard
Warning... which is in effect from 6 PM Thursday to 1 PM EST
Friday. The Winter Storm Watch is no longer in effect.

* Locations... Long Island including Nassau and Suffolk counties.

* Hazard types... snow and blowing snow.

* Accumulations... up to around 1 inch of snow is forecast
overnight through the Thursday morning rush hour. An additional
7 to 9 inches of snow is forecast Thursday evening through
Friday. Total accumulations of 8 to 10 inches are forecast.

* Winds... north 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* Temperatures... in the lower 20s.

* Visibilities... one quarter mile or less.

* Timing... the heaviest snow and the strongest winds will occur Thursday
night into Friday.

* Impacts... blowing and drifting snow will produce dangerous
travel conditions. Wind chills from 5 degrees below zero to 5
degrees above zero will produce extreme cold impacts.

Precautionary/preparedness actions... 

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions... making travel extremely dangerous. Do not travel. If
you must travel... have a winter survival kit with you. If you get
stranded... stay with your vehicle.

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