SACRUS Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Will edit the below as each model comes out for quick reference Summary of 18z Guidance range generally west to east QPF SREF: 0.50 - 0.70 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/sref/15/sref_namer_057_precip_p24.gif NAM: 0.75 - 1.00 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/18/nam_namer_054_precip_ptot.gif GFS: 0.25 - 0.50 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_namer_057_precip_ptot.gif GEFS: 0.25 - 0.50 UKMET RGEM: 0.40 - 1.00 (LI) http://meteocentre.com/models/gemreg_amer_18/accum/PR_000-048_0000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 the SREF brings the .5" contour to the del water gap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 New SREFS cut back totals a tiny bit. Still a solid 6 to locally 10 inch snowfall with QPF ranging from .50- .75 .50 west jersey and .75 east jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 the SREF brings the .5" contour to the del water gap Yep, brought the .50 line much further west last run. Pretty much I. Line with the rest of the guidance now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 New SREFS cut back totals a tiny bit. Still a solid 6 to locally 10 inch snowfall with QPF ranging from .50- .75 .50 west jersey and .75 east jersey. there were some nutty members in that run. it's probably not useful yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 the SREF brings the .5" contour to the del water gapCorrect me if I am wrong, but it looks like it brings the low just outside the bench mark as well. Though maybe a few members closer to the coast.http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fsref%2F15%2Fsref_namer_042_mslp.gif&model=sref&area=namer&storm=&cycle=15¶m=mslp&fhr=042&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 here comes the NAM, lets see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 NAM rolling compared to 12z it's slightly more amped at hr 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 euro ensembles look pretty spot on with the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 We have to keep an eye on that southern vort on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Western ridge is more amped @ 24, digging more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 All the over running is north of most of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Western ridge is more amped @ 24, digging more Trough also has more of a neutral tilt compared to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Term of the year (last year I guess) is "slightly more amped" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Low forming over eastern NC at hour 27, looks maybe a hair less amped as compared to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 We would be dry until after dark if the NAM verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 it never fails... one says more amped, one says less... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 slightly deeper backside energy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Too me it still looks like the NAM can't focus on a particular LOW pressure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 We would be dry until after dark if the NAM verifies. Looks like light snow during the day tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Hour 30 low is over DC area. Light snow moving in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 We would be dry until after dark if the NAM verifies.No, not dry. I think one of the mets mentions some freezing drizzle possible.http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=024ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_024_precip_p24.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 NAM has ADD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Looks like light snow during the day tomorrow. Not unless you live well north of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Can I make a simple request please? Can the most qualified person please do the play by play commentary? It really will help those following along. Kthx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Hour 33 we're all solidly in light snow. The backside of the trough is more energetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Can I make a simple request please? Can the most qualified person please do the play by play commentary? It really will help those following along. Kthx AMEN!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Looks like light snow during the day tomorrow. Yep, this will be the prelude to the heavier stuff overnight Thursday (hopefully). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I second that request please! !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Not unless you live well north of NYC. This is wrong. There is light precip in the area through out the day. Look at the QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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