Central Illinois Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 That is NOT the case anymore. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 18z seemed to stop the bleeding as far as a further NW track. Even the more amped RGEM extrapolated looks like a good hit for YYZ. We'll see what the 0z suite brings but assuming it's static I think I can bump my call locally with a bit of confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 What is going on with the models? This is the track for a KC to Chicago crusher. But STL is almost missed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Looks like the RGEM goes 998mb over Cincy. It's a start Just to visualize it for everyone: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Lol I think he's right. The off hour runs being vastly inferior is a bygone of yesteryear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Pat's actually correct...there's not much difference in the verification scores for various times even though it sure seems like it sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 SREF plumes continue to rise to the north. ORD; all but one plume above 4". http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20140103&RT=15&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=ORD&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=8&mLAT=41.86112660379815&mLON=-86.385914453125&mTYP=roadmap Thanks for the link. Mean here of 12". Very nice. Like where I sit right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 ILN snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxhstn74 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Dangerous Bitter Cold Storm to Impact Southeast Lower Michigan Sunday Into Monday!http://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/2014/01/dangerous-bitter-cold-storm-to-impact.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Since the 18z GFS and NAM get a lotta love, why not the 18z UK... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjwise Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Thanks for the link. Mean here of 12". Very nice. Like where I sit right now. Many of the lower MI (e.g., Battle Creek, Jackson, Lansing) plume means are in the foot range. Some of the ensemble members are over 20" now thanks to some apparent lake effect assistance after the main event. Nuts to that. With the extreme cold and the wind ensuing it would be crippling for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Since the 18z GFS and NAM get a lotta love, why not the 18z UK... 18z UK 48.gif 18z uk 60.gif 18z UK 72.gif Which side are we on? Foreign or American? lol Im going foreign! Hope they know whats going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Which side are we on? Foreign or American? lol Im going foreign! Hope they know whats going on. UK or bust. Euro is a pretty good storm, but the crazy uncle is over the top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Since the 18z GFS and NAM get a lotta love, why not the 18z UK... 18z UK 48.gif 18z uk 60.gif 18z UK 72.gif Do you have the temperature profiles? Like the temperature maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Do you have the temperature profiles? Like the temperature maps? http://vortex.plymouth.edu/make.html Scroll down to "Composite Overlays" on the left hand, click that and proceed. Ukie is so extreme, I'm sorta sweating p-types for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 That looks identical to 12z? Is that really a separate run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 In other news. Umm talk about major differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Regardless of someone's preferred outcome, this is a pretty sweet image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 That looks identical to 12z? Is that really a separate run? Nah, I just made it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Nah, I just made it up. If you took that as a knock on you. Sorry. No where did I say you did. Obviously I was talking about the output being messed up. It's definitely not the 18z ukmet. Wonder how long it's just been a carbon copy of 12z with 18z timestamps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 love pulling for the ukmet with my laf friends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 If you took that as a knock on you. Sorry. No where did I say you did. Obviously I was talking about the output being messed up. No, I was just kidding. But your image is from the 12z run. There is an 18z UK run...look at the time stamps on the images I posted (6:00pm, 6:00am, etc). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 http://vortex.plymouth.edu/make.html Scroll down to "Composite Overlays" on the left hand, click that and proceed. Ukie is so extreme, I'm sorta sweating p-types for a time. That's a fail mode we haven't considered. Would be worse than the 12/1/2006 disaster. We're gonna be fine or else it would be one of the biggest model debacles ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 No, I was just kidding. But your image is from the 12z run. There is an 18z UK run...look at the time stamps on the images I posted (6:00pm, 6:00am, etc). Its all good. It does look like a model output issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Since the 18z GFS and NAM get a lotta love, why not the 18z UK... 18z UK 48.gif 18z uk 60.gif 18z UK 72.gif Where is the 18Z Korean while we're at it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 love pulling for the ukmet with my laf friends Go big or go home. 18z UK pushing the edge though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Go big or go home. yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 That's a fail mode we haven't considered. Would be worse than the 12/1/2006 disaster. We're gonna be fine or else it would be one of the biggest model debacles ever. Why did you say that? I'll have nightmares now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Local mets wcia/wand/wcis all going with 6-8" locally more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 There might be a problem with the UKMET precip plots being old but if you just plot the sea-level pressure, the images do appear to be different from the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.