A-L-E-K Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Gradient is tight but I think you have a pretty good shot of getting 6+. If anything you may do a little better than ORD given your location. I should definitely do better than ORD being south and east. The SREF are really going gangbusters on ratios which is why totals are so high here. The narrow fgen band is going to make or break the event here. LP/defo snows are less promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 TWC appears to favor GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 TWC appears to favor GFS. I'll take the over on no snow in Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 'copter @ Ion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 18z NAM going to be p lame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 at the risk of being accused of a sausage post lol....I'll throw it out there that both the ggem and euro ensembles are further se then their OPs. Both center the low on the OH/WV border around Parkersburg. Which is interesting considering it's only 60hrs. *this is not a forecast or projection or wishcasting*....it's simply another tiny piece of information whatever it's worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 at the risk of being accused of a sausage post lol....I'll throw it out there that both the ggem and euro ensembles are further se then their OPs. Both center the low on the OH/WV border around Parkersburg. Which is interesting considering it's only 60hrs. *this is not a forecast or projection or wishcasting*....it's simply another tiny piece of information whatever it's worth. To back you up I did notice this as well on the Canadian ensembles. Like you said most members are over the OH/WV border and only 3 were west of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Wow the nam totally crushes the backside energy before it can round the base of the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 LOL...gotta love the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Wow much further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 DO I smell a S/E shift on the nam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Looks like the nam says F U to everyone except Southern Ohio The funny part is that until it crushes and strings out the energy it was better for a more amplified outcome. If this verifies it would be the most epic bust ever. The amount of regional bust would be off the charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 The gap between the 12z UKMET which has mixing up to IND and the 18z NAM shows the volatility in this setup. It'd be one thing if we were 4 or 5 days out but we're only 2 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 it's just a weak sheared mess... only one run and it's the nam and it's 18z but still I think this was always a plausible (not likely) solution with that monster PV coming in and a less than stellar southern wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 it's just a weak sheared mess... only one run and it's the nam and it's 18z but still I think this was always a plausible (not likely) solution with that monster PV coming in and a less than stellar southern wave. I'll that take that weak sheared mess that drops a half foot on us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 NAM has been so inconsistent...why give it so much attention??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 NAM has been so inconsistent...why give it so much attention??? Because it's one of the model suites out there, and to not take it into consideration would be stupid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 NAM has been so inconsistent...why give it so much attention??? just analyzing the 18z run. no one put money on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 The gap between the 12z UKMET which has mixing up to IND and the 18z NAM shows the volatility in this setup. It'd be one thing if we were 4 or 5 days out but we're only 2 days away. Hoosier, I noticed this on the 500 UK chart at 24 hours....see that circled red area. Euro didn't have that piece. Would probably explain the extra juice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 snippet from IWX ... ON SUNDAY...MAIN SFC LOW WILL BE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AS NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM PHASE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. GFS CONTINUES TO COME ON BOARD WITH STRONGER SOLUTIONS AND UKMET MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH INSANE QPF AMOUNTS WITH THREE QUARTERS TO ONE INCH BY MONDAY MORNING. CONCERNS LOOM THAT MODELS ARE NOT CAPTURING FULL POTENTIAL OF THE SYSTEM AND THAT MUCH MORE SNOW COULD OCCUR THAN PRESENTLY FORECAST AS WELL AS TRACK FURTHER NW (TYPICAL BIAS). NAM 18Z RUN STRUGGLING TO GRASP EVEN THE BASICS ON THE STORM. GRIDS THEMSELVES HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH WITH CAT POPS WARRANTED AND MENTION OF HEAVY SNOW ADDED ALL AREAS. QPF HAS BEEN INCREASED SOMEWHAT RESULTING IN HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS TIME THE HIGHEST IS CONFINED TO SE HALF OF THE AREA BUT AS NOTED GENUINE CONCERNS THAT THIS AXIS COULD BE SHIFTED NW. 00Z SOUNDINGS IN THE NW STATES SHOULD SAMPLE THE DIGGING TROUGH BETTER AND COULD SEE SOME SIG CHANGES IN MODELS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS. TRAVEL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL LIKELY BECOME DIFFICULT IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN RURAL AREAS WHERE SIGNIFICANT DRIFTING WILL OCCUR. MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW HAS BEEN EXPANDED INTO MONDAY WITH NEED BEYOND THIS POSSIBLE. NO CHANGES IN TERMS OF BITTER COLD AS FORECAST HAS BEEN ON TRACK FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS NOW. ADDITIONAL WINTER HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 IWX essentially tossed the 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Won't put much merit into this 18z nam run, but if GFS follows suit could mean a shift of the bullseye to my back yard and other Ohioans Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 snippet from IWX ... ON SUNDAY...MAIN SFC LOW WILL BE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AS NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM PHASE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. GFS CONTINUES TO COME ON BOARD WITH STRONGER SOLUTIONS AND UKMET MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH INSANE QPF AMOUNTS WITH THREE QUARTERS TO ONE INCH BY MONDAY MORNING. CONCERNS LOOM THAT MODELS ARE NOT CAPTURING FULL POTENTIAL OF THE SYSTEM AND THAT MUCH MORE SNOW COULD OCCUR THAN PRESENTLY FORECAST AS WELL AS TRACK FURTHER NW (TYPICAL BIAS). NAM 18Z RUN STRUGGLING TO GRASP EVEN THE BASICS ON THE STORM. GRIDS THEMSELVES HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH WITH CAT POPS WARRANTED AND MENTION OF HEAVY SNOW ADDED ALL AREAS. QPF HAS BEEN INCREASED SOMEWHAT RESULTING IN HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS TIME THE HIGHEST IS CONFINED TO SE HALF OF THE AREA BUT AS NOTED GENUINE CONCERNS THAT THIS AXIS COULD BE SHIFTED NW. 00Z SOUNDINGS IN THE NW STATES SHOULD SAMPLE THE DIGGING TROUGH BETTER AND COULD SEE SOME SIG CHANGES IN MODELS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS. TRAVEL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL LIKELY BECOME DIFFICULT IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN RURAL AREAS WHERE SIGNIFICANT DRIFTING WILL OCCUR. MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW HAS BEEN EXPANDED INTO MONDAY WITH NEED BEYOND THIS POSSIBLE. NO CHANGES IN TERMS OF BITTER COLD AS FORECAST HAS BEEN ON TRACK FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS NOW. ADDITIONAL WINTER HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS. IWX essentially tossed the 18z NAM and basically said there's a blizzard coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 IWX essentially tossed the 18z NAM Be pretty dumb for them to put much stock into it considering the other guidance. But what do I know... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Solid write up from IWX explaining things. FWIW the 18z RAP is 4-6mb stronger with the low in the TX PH valid 12z tomorrow vs the 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Be pretty dumb for them to put much stock into it considering the other guidance. But what do I know... sure, i just throught the way they tossed it was funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Solid write up from IWX explaining things. FWIW the 18z RAP is 4-6mb stronger with the low in the TX PH valid 12z tomorrow vs the 18z NAM. chuck 'em deep...long range RUC can't be far behind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 at the risk of being accused of a sausage post lol....I'll throw it out there that both the ggem and euro ensembles are further se then their OPs. Both center the low on the OH/WV border around Parkersburg. Which is interesting considering it's only 60hrs. *this is not a forecast or projection or wishcasting*....it's simply another tiny piece of information whatever it's worth. The GFS op is the farthest SE member: The CMC ens mean is a tick NW of the op as well, but on this plot it looks like a lot of the members are missing, so I'm not sure what's up with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I'll go 2.3" first call here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Here are the 18z RAP/NAM compared valid 12z tomorrow..pretty drastic for an 18hr fcst. http://i.picasion.com/pic76/0c1929dca700dc81d70a3aee9a34e517.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.