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00z Model Discussion | January 2-3 Winter storm


user13

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The problem is the overrunning event-models still mostly have that overshooting us for mostly around I-90 and SNE. Therefore we have to rely on the coastal redevelopment, and if that doesn't pan out and the trough is kicked out too fast, we're really just left in the huge middle-finger dry slot. I still like our odds for "something", but the progressive nature of the pattern may yet ruin our chances. I mean the pattern just screams along like crazy-can't have a shortwave to itself for any time until the next one kicks it east and flattens the amplification. And the block isn't strong enough to stop it like it was in Dec 2010.

Our area is relying on the coastal. It sucks that the overrunning precip will be north of the area.

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I don't mind ur posts usually but the arrogance In Which u write ur posts is very annoying I must say... I know many people like you...even if every model on the planet showed 12" of snow u would post cynical nonsense about how ur skeptical and claim u saw it coming lol... Allow those that enjoy discussing the model runs for what there worth post

i think you meant to say, I know many people DONT like you,  :whistle:

 

i did like what I saw last night...but the trends are undeniable. That is my point.

 

very possible to get a 2-4" or 3-5" event...nothing wrong with that....

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Some of these posts are truly hilarious, I would wait until either the 12z runs tomorrow or the 00z runs tomorrow night before taking the major storm idea off the table. It is also a good idea to wait and see what the Euro ensembles will show. If my memory serves me right, we have seen the models do this before around this time frame before a major winter storm impacts the NYC and Philly metro areas.

 

 

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Our area is relying on the coastal. It sucks that the overrunning precip will be north of the area.

It might not be, the event around 12/20 had overuunning snow into our area when it was mostly supposed to be north of us. But models overwhelmingly target I-90 with that event. So we really have to depend on what the coastal storm does. If that doesn't produce at all we really might not end up with much. And that would likely mean that the cold temp predictions for after are overdone, with little snowcover. We still have time, but the progressive pattern isn't our friend at all. We need the block to be as strong as possible.

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Summary of tonight's 00z suite

 

 

NYC QPF wed 12z - sat 00z

 

NAM:  0.40 - 0.60 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/00/nam_namer_084_precip_ptot.gif

GFS:  0.25 - 0.40 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_096_precip_ptot.gif

GGEM:  0.10 - 0.25 http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/accum/PR_024-096_0000.gif

UKMET:  looks similar to the ggem thru 72 hrs

ECM:  0.50 I don't have the ecm yet but judging by others comments 0.50

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So Boston goes from 24 inches to 4 lol. How do you think they feel...

According to the euro qpf is .6+ in Boston with temps in the teens...u can see a sharp contrast in temps from mid twenties just south of Boston to single digits west and NW...not that it matter to us.

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It was absolutely obvious that the ECMWF would reduce QPF this run; as virtually all the other models did...if it did not...it would likely operating under different laws of physics & mathematics than everyone else because no matter what numerical modeling is used by the model...the same general 0z data is being ingested by all the models.

 

Overall the ECMWF still gives a pretty nice snow event...though the trend *was* the wrong way.

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Summary of tonight's 00z suite

NYC QPF wed 12z - sat 00z

NAM: 0.40 - 0.60 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/00/nam_namer_084_precip_ptot.gif

GFS: 0.25 - 0.40 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_096_precip_ptot.gif

GGEM: 0.10 - 0.25 http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/accum/PR_024-096_0000.gif

UKMET: looks similar to the ggem thru 72 hrs

ECM: 0.50 I don't have the ecm yet but judging by others comments 0.50

I dont have a sounding but its between .4 and .5. .5 + for central/south Nassau on east....another day..another run. This is a plausible solution...like the rest are

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