MJO812 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The problem is the overrunning event-models still mostly have that overshooting us for mostly around I-90 and SNE. Therefore we have to rely on the coastal redevelopment, and if that doesn't pan out and the trough is kicked out too fast, we're really just left in the huge middle-finger dry slot. I still like our odds for "something", but the progressive nature of the pattern may yet ruin our chances. I mean the pattern just screams along like crazy-can't have a shortwave to itself for any time until the next one kicks it east and flattens the amplification. And the block isn't strong enough to stop it like it was in Dec 2010. Our area is relying on the coastal. It sucks that the overrunning precip will be north of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I don't mind ur posts usually but the arrogance In Which u write ur posts is very annoying I must say... I know many people like you...even if every model on the planet showed 12" of snow u would post cynical nonsense about how ur skeptical and claim u saw it coming lol... Allow those that enjoy discussing the model runs for what there worth post i think you meant to say, I know many people DONT like you, i did like what I saw last night...but the trends are undeniable. That is my point. very possible to get a 2-4" or 3-5" event...nothing wrong with that.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 What are the temps on the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Some of these posts are truly hilarious, I would wait until either the 12z runs tomorrow or the 00z runs tomorrow night before taking the major storm idea off the table. It is also a good idea to wait and see what the Euro ensembles will show. If my memory serves me right, we have seen the models do this before around this time frame before a major winter storm impacts the NYC and Philly metro areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 based on that euro run i said 1-3" for the lucky ones.... its entirely possible that in 24 hrs this will a nada event AND it's entirely possible that in 24 hrs this will be 3 - 5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Euro has .75-1.00 QPF for eastern LI and .50-.75 for NYC. Not bad at all. Nice moderate snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 They could all bring it back tomorrow. It has happened in the past. they absolutely could. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 AND it's entirely possible that in 24 hrs his will be 3 - 5". based on most models i think its already 3-5" now ....LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Euro has .75-1.00 QPF for eastern LI and .50-.75 for NYC. Not bad at all. Nice moderate snowfall. what about SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 What are the temps on the Euro? Mostly mid twenties according to weatherbell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Our area is relying on the coastal. It sucks that the overrunning precip will be north of the area. It might not be, the event around 12/20 had overuunning snow into our area when it was mostly supposed to be north of us. But models overwhelmingly target I-90 with that event. So we really have to depend on what the coastal storm does. If that doesn't produce at all we really might not end up with much. And that would likely mean that the cold temp predictions for after are overdone, with little snowcover. We still have time, but the progressive pattern isn't our friend at all. We need the block to be as strong as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Yanks fan talking about his location as usual or ifk what he was looking at. Yes its a mess but still gives us a good amount of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjr231 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Am I missing something? This is 4-6 inches for the metro area per this run. Sure, it has trended in the wrong direction but its really just aligning more with the ensembles. Until the ensembles jump ship lets keep the faith of a moderate snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The EURO shows .50" - .75" of precip with temps in the teens and 20s and somehow that's a non-event. It's warning level criteria and if temps are cold enough, we could see double digit accums. How is that a non-event??? It's the biggest snow we've had all season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Euro has .75-1.00 QPF for eastern LI and .50-.75 for NYC. Not bad at all. Nice moderate snowfall. So why is everyone freaking out and calling non event??? Lol with the rations high that's a 6-10" storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Anyone got euro snowfall map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 what about SNE? Quite similiar to NYC. Maybe a little more. Mostly mid twenties according to weatherbell Not bad at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 So why is everyone freaking out and calling non event??? Lol with the rations high that's a 6-10" storm nobody is freaking out....all i was trying to point out was the trend isnt great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 So why is everyone freaking out and calling non event??? Lol with the rations high that's a 6-10" storm Because nobody waits until the model run is finished before declaring the results Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Anyone got euro snowfall map? I do but it's from stormvista so I can't post it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 nobody is freaking out....all i was trying to point out was the trend isnt great. U said in ur previous post it's a flurries with a 1-3 at best for some areas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 Because nobody waits until the model run is finished before declaring the results Lol! This!... There no reason this wont trend the other way tomorrow, The energy is still not sampled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 LI gets more snow than NYC on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Summary of tonight's 00z suite NYC QPF wed 12z - sat 00z NAM: 0.40 - 0.60 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/00/nam_namer_084_precip_ptot.gif GFS: 0.25 - 0.40 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_096_precip_ptot.gif GGEM: 0.10 - 0.25 http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/accum/PR_024-096_0000.gif UKMET: looks similar to the ggem thru 72 hrs ECM: 0.50 I don't have the ecm yet but judging by others comments 0.50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Ok let's all take a chill pill and wait until tomorrow 00z runs. I'm staying up for the 06 nam though lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 0z GFS QPF: BOS: 0.81" EWR: 0.34" HPN: 0.40" ISP: 0.51" NYC: 0.36" PHL: 0.20" 0z ECWMF QPF: BOS: 0.59" EWR: 0.41" HPN: 0.45" ISP: 0.69" NYC: 0.45" PHL: 0.34" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 So Boston goes from 24 inches to 4 lol. How do you think they feel... According to the euro qpf is .6+ in Boston with temps in the teens...u can see a sharp contrast in temps from mid twenties just south of Boston to single digits west and NW...not that it matter to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It was absolutely obvious that the ECMWF would reduce QPF this run; as virtually all the other models did...if it did not...it would likely operating under different laws of physics & mathematics than everyone else because no matter what numerical modeling is used by the model...the same general 0z data is being ingested by all the models. Overall the ECMWF still gives a pretty nice snow event...though the trend *was* the wrong way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Enough. Its a straight up 3 - 6" event on the Euro with 10/1 ratios, more for William and the eastern most Jersey coast. Its cold so 12-15/1 is not out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Summary of tonight's 00z suite NYC QPF wed 12z - sat 00z NAM: 0.40 - 0.60 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/00/nam_namer_084_precip_ptot.gif GFS: 0.25 - 0.40 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_096_precip_ptot.gif GGEM: 0.10 - 0.25 http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/accum/PR_024-096_0000.gif UKMET: looks similar to the ggem thru 72 hrs ECM: 0.50 I don't have the ecm yet but judging by others comments 0.50 I dont have a sounding but its between .4 and .5. .5 + for central/south Nassau on east....another day..another run. This is a plausible solution...like the rest are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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