NorEastermass128 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 I know the PNA going positive and EPO going negative again may be bringing some downright frigid temps to the Northeast. Looking at the PNA spike that should alone allow for a more conducive setup along the east coast with the -EPO providing the cold air. Theoretically if this were to happen one would have to look at the threat of the strongly positive NAO spoiling the party. Just lots of variables to consider now through this weekend. Lots of weenies dreams realized or shattered Things are looking good going forward. Just need to get through this little grinch warmup blip through Monday...then we could be in store for plenty of chances with cold around. Can't ask for more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 NAO alone wouldn't spoil the part, it just doesn't help having it positive. Really, all it does is render the situation a bit more precarios right at the beaches, and greatly reduce the odds of a KU-juggernaut; however it doesn't really lower seasonal snowfall potential all that much at this latitude. 40N and points south has the season significantly impaired, sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 NAO alone wouldn't spoil the part, it just doesn't help having it positive. From my amateur perspective - with a +NAO in this regime (-EPO), we'll keep the fast flow. That deters coastal bombs, but there should be ample SWFEs and clippers. A very wintery appeal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Really, all it does is render the situation a bit more precarios right at the beaches, and greatly reduce the odds of a KU-juggernaut; however it doesn't really lower seasonal snowfall potential all that much at this latitude. 40N and points south has the season significantly impaired, sure. Sure, but given the right setup, we could still get a KU, we got one in January 2005 with a positive NAO, 30 hours of snow with that storm, because at h5 we closed off at the right moment slowing down the movement of the surface low redevelopment. I think with the GGEM we see the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Sure, but given the right setup, we could still get a KU, we got one in January 2005 with a positive NAO, 30 hours of snow with that storm, because at h5 we closed off at the right moment slowing down the movement of the surface low redevelopment. I think with the GGEM we see the same thing. I think in 2005 it was the modality of the NAO that did the deed....the NAO was on the rise. I'm not sure, though....maybe lying. Anyhow, two entirely different seasons....2005 had a weak el Nino, weak QBO, and there was plenty of blocking. This season is characterized by a fast flow, a la 2007 and 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 To my free ewall site the EURO looks horrid for this potential Christmas snow special the GFS and GGEM showed. Am I right, or do the pay sites show a different picture? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 I think in 2005 it was the modality of the NAO that did the deed....the NAO was on the rise. I'm not sure, though....maybe lying. Anyhow, two entirely different seasons....2005 had a weak el Nino, weak QBO, and there was plenty of blocking. This season is characterized by a fast flow, a la 2007 and 2008. I think 2005 was still neutral, like this season is, but you are right this season has a much faster flow aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 To my free ewall site the EURO looks horrid for this potential Christmas snow special the GFS and GGEM showed. Am I right, or do the pay sites show a different picture? Yes it gives pretty much no chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Yes it gives pretty much no chance. oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Sure, but given the right setup, we could still get a KU, we got one in January 2005 with a positive NAO, 30 hours of snow with that storm, because at h5 we closed off at the right moment slowing down the movement of the surface low redevelopment. I think with the GGEM we see the same thing. on cape cod, ma?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 on cape cod, ma?? Boston, MA had a top 5 snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 I think a compromise of the GGEM and EURO is the GFS solution. So right now its a slim chance of getting a decent sized snowstorm to hit New England coastline. If the 00z trends towards the GGEM than we will have a better idea, but for now EURO is not on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 I think 2005 was still neutral, like this season is, but you are right this season has a much faster flow aloft. January 2005 averaged slightly negative, this season is very much positive thus far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 January 2005 averaged slightly negative, this season is very much positive thus far... How anyone describes this season as neutral is confusing to me. And the AO, well that is lets just say...elevated. Im impressed w Riccardo and his OPI /AO stuff and know that Cohen is working w them u know its the real deal (legit) work. (The OPI stuff) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 The AO modality this season was a lock + and was foreseen by many. The question is more Feb into Mach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 ENSO is neutral I said, not NAO or AO or EPO or PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Both NAM and GFS have a southern stream system entering the trough once the 22nd storm lifts northeastward away from the southern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 its hard to even look at that map! Lol...that is an understatement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 The AO modality this season was a lock + and was foreseen by many. The question is more Feb into Mach. It will be interesting to me how cold we end up overall in the CONUS despite a big +AO. I think the AO will average out solidly positive. There's been a few winters that ended up cold in the CONUS despite the +AO....the most notable ones being 1988-1989 which was the most positive AO on record, yet was the 48th coldest winter out of 118 on record. 1992-1993 was the 2nd most positive AO on record and yet was the 25th coldest winter on record for the CONUS. If we drop the AO some in the 2nd half of winter, then we might not see a hugely positive AO for the winter as a whole like those years. It might be more mundanely positive like 2007-2008 or 1998-1999. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 maybe the follow up wave has legs? euro ens mean has anafrontal precip on xmas eve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Euro ensembles are more bullish for Xmas Eve anafront event edit: forky beat me to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 i also noticed that the euro op was sharper with the trof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Some of the GFS ensembles are hits as well, I'd def keep an eye on the X-mas event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 euro ensembles have something for Xmas eve into Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 euro ensembles have something for Xmas eve into Day. for eastern NE or all of SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Euro ensembles are more bullish for Xmas Eve anafront event edit: forky beat me to it Lets hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 It will be interesting to me how cold we end up overall in the CONUS despite a big +AO. I think the AO will average out solidly positive. There's been a few winters that ended up cold in the CONUS despite the +AO....the most notable ones being 1988-1989 which was the most positive AO on record, yet was the 48th coldest winter out of 118 on record. 1992-1993 was the 2nd most positive AO on record and yet was the 25th coldest winter on record for the CONUS. If we drop the AO some in the 2nd half of winter, then we might not see a hugely positive AO for the winter as a whole like those years. It might be more mundanely positive like 2007-2008 or 1998-1999. Didn't 97-98 have one of the lowest AOs on record for a winter? Interesting that 09-10 had a very low one too and both were fairly strong El Ninos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 It will be interesting to me how cold we end up overall in the CONUS despite a big +AO. I think the AO will average out solidly positive. There's been a few winters that ended up cold in the CONUS despite the +AO....the most notable ones being 1988-1989 which was the most positive AO on record, yet was the 48th coldest winter out of 118 on record. 1992-1993 was the 2nd most positive AO on record and yet was the 25th coldest winter on record for the CONUS. If we drop the AO some in the 2nd half of winter, then we might not see a hugely positive AO for the winter as a whole like those years. It might be more mundanely positive like 2007-2008 or 1998-1999. It's definitely going to be all about the Pacific which means we may have nail biters from time to time. Hopefully models are right with keeping that 50mb vortex disturbed and on our side of the globe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Didn't 97-98 have one of the lowest AOs on record for a winter? Interesting that 09-10 had a very low one too and both were fairly strong El Ninos. No, it was low, but it wasn't near record territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 i like how the ec ens look in the long range. heart of the cold is centered just north of new england and up to James Bay. and it's not mediocre cold either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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