Carvers Gap Posted December 25, 2013 Author Share Posted December 25, 2013 Believe your wrong here.The MJO on the GFS ens. Has been stuck on 7,that has nothing to do with other than seasonal weather for us. I am trying to follow your thinking. What exactly are we disagreeing about? I am fully aware of the MJO and its consequences...I think what most are saying is models are inconsistent in a new pattern. No one mentioned the MJO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 I am trying to follow your thinking. What exactly are we disagreeing about? I am fully aware of the MJO and its consequences...I think what most are saying is models are inconsistent in a new pattern. No one mentioned the MJO. I'm just saying everyone is screaming a artic outbreak,not sure where it's coming from Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 It definitely looks like the 0z GFS is much faster in kicking our southern stream energy out to the east so far. Is that what y'all are seeing as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 25, 2013 Author Share Posted December 25, 2013 I'm just saying everyone is screaming a artic outbreak,not sure where it's coming from We have established plenty of evidence for below normal temps for early Jan and some to the contrary. Who said an Arctic outbreak was imminent? There is a huge difference between that and run of the mill below normal temps. Ease up and just enjoy the discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 We have established plenty of evidence for below normal temps for early Jan and some to the contrary. Who said an Arctic outbreak was imminent? There is a huge difference between that and run of the mill below normal temps. Ease up and just enjoy the discussion. Yeah, not sure where he is getting the Arctic outbreak from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Really nice west coast ridging on the 0z GFS tonight at 180. It's crazy to see the impulse we are ALL watching just stay out west for days....... but it does make sense if you look at 500. It's further east initially than 18z, but a diving shortwave ends up pinching it off from the flow. Hope when it does kick east, we have enough cold air for someone (TN Valley) to work with. It simply shears it to oblivion on the 0z.....and that's different. Merry Christmas all! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 25, 2013 Author Share Posted December 25, 2013 Really nice west coast ridging on the 0z GFS tonight at 180. It's crazy to see the impulse we are ALL watching just stay out west for days....... but it does make sense if you look at 500. It's further east initially than 18z, but a diving shortwave ends up pinching it off from the flow. Hope when it does kick east, we have enough cold air for someone (TN Valley) to work with. It simply shears it to oblivion on the 0z.....and that's different. Merry Christmas all! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Hr 114 on the 0z GFS is pretty interesting. Might not have any cold air to work with, but if that spins up...nothing on the models will be correct until that feature is handled. It has my interest for sure. Overall, the GFS continues to hold serve on the cold and winter wx potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 It definitely looks like the 0z GFS is much faster in kicking our southern stream energy out to the east so far. Is that what y'all are seeing as well? Looked like it initially, but it ended up getting pinched off and then squashed when it did come east. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 BTW, the reinforcing cold on the 0z GFS for day 10+ is also shown on the 12z euro ensembles..... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Thanks for keeping up the good posts folks! I've only had time to sneak a peek here and there the last couple of days since we've been bombarded by family. From what I can tell, the pattern still looks like it holds good potential. We all should be accustom to model flip-floppage by now so no use in getting worked up about it if a few runs don't look perfect. If/when we do have something to track, I'd be surprised if we have more than 4 or 5 days warning from the models. Seems like they've been in cluster mode here lately.. Merry Christmas to All! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 0z Euro esm.is an ice box,not sure why the 12z has been totally different lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Beast of a storm in the NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 25, 2013 Author Share Posted December 25, 2013 Speaking of Arctic outbreaks. Well, the 0z Euro at 240 is pretty amazing. Highly doubtful the extreme cold verifies due to the fact it is ten days away. But looks like the seasonal to below normal cold is still very much on the table. Hr 120 is warm but that feature is going to have an impact on the upcoming depth of the trough. The pattern is everything. Going to be a trough in the East. Southern jet is active. I will take that pattern all day long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 The 6z is once again frigid with snow showers all the way into the GOM and N.Fla and 850s approaching -30 over Tennessee just after New Years. Then it follows that up with another 300+ hours major storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 GFS at 240. I know it's outside the high resolution range and it's also got a cold bias. But even moderated, this would still be frigid and it's not like it hasn't been showing this regularly either. It was showing it in the 300+ range a few days ago. These are 2m temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 25, 2013 Author Share Posted December 25, 2013 GFS at 240. I know it's outside the high resolution range and it's also got a cold bias. But even moderated, this would still be frigid and it's not like it hasn't been showing this regularly either. It was showing it in the 300+ range a few days ago. Goodness! What a map. The CPC ensembles are interesting. The NAO is only neutral. The AO appears to go strongly negative but there is some dissent within the ensemble. The PNA will go positive for a time. I am not sure that once all of today's data is factored in the NAO won't be more negative tomorrow in the long run. Based on those indices alone....looks like we will get cold but not extreme and then it leaves after 8-10 days. Looks like a good two week shot of winter at the best time climo speaking for cold. I would look for a storm to start the pattern and one to end it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Goodness! What a map. The CPC ensembles are interesting. The NAO is only neutral. The AO appears to go strongly negative but there is some dissent within the ensemble. The PNA will go positive for a time. I am not sure that once all of today's data is factored in the NAO won't be more negative tomorrow in the long run. Based on those indices alone....looks like we will get cold but not extreme and then it leaves after 8-10 days. Looks like a good two week shot of winter at the best time climo speaking for cold. I would look for a storm to start the pattern and one to end it. That is impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Threat still there, inside 200. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Although we've gotten the small chance side of it a few times the last two years, there's around an 89% correlation between a -AO and a -NAO. Goodness! What a map. The CPC ensembles are interesting. The NAO is only neutral. The AO appears to go strongly negative but there is some dissent within the ensemble. The PNA will go positive for a time. I am not sure that once all of today's data is factored in the NAO won't be more negative tomorrow in the long run. Based on those indices alone....looks like we will get cold but not extreme and then it leaves after 8-10 days. Looks like a good two week shot of winter at the best time climo speaking for cold. I would look for a storm to start the pattern and one to end it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 I am trying to follow your thinking. What exactly are we disagreeing about? I am fully aware of the MJO and its consequences...I think what most are saying is models are inconsistent in a new pattern. No one mentioned the MJO. Sorry about the rant last night,believe i had one 2 many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 25, 2013 Author Share Posted December 25, 2013 Sorry about the rant last night,believe i had one 2 many Sorry about the rant last night,believe i had one 2 many We are good. No sweat. Merry Christmas and let's hope the GFS and Euro come to pass. The 12z looked pretty good again in the long run. The 120 hr time frame is getting very interesting, though still warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 25, 2013 Author Share Posted December 25, 2013 Well, the Euro looks less cold(relatively speaking...not historic) and more eastward with its trough. Until that slp feature rolls through at 120 no way the models have the pattern nailed. Without Atlantic blocking, going to be tough to drive that cold as far south as the 0z. As Jaxjagman pointed out, the 0z seems colder and the 12z seems warmer. Been going on for a few days. I have noticed that myself. And that feature at 120 is still interesting. Looks too warm, but it may make a run at being a significant storm at least for folks to our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 nao.sprd2.gif 600×800 .pn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Perfect track from 84-96 for a southern apps snowmaker.......only problem.........no cold air. I hope this isn't the last weekend qpf producer this weekend. If we have another, it will likely be cold enough for some fun and games Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 I wish I had a nickel for ever Great Lakes low that has put the kebosh on any potential snow for our area over the last 10 years. Without that feature......this weekend would be a lot closer to a wet snow. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 18z pretty much says it gets cold by Monday and the following 10 days after that feature highs generally below 40 with lots of very cold mornings and quite a bit of snow showery weather. Most importantly, the cold trend is still there and well inside 180 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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