Carvers Gap Posted December 19, 2013 Author Share Posted December 19, 2013 The GFS 0/6z still continues to show a promising pattern after Christmas. The Atlantic looks mildly better if heights can continue to build into Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 I'm really liking the new years ish system that has consistently been showing up the past couple days. Ensembles are pretty supportive of it - there's blocking showing up in all the right places. day 10-14 is the timeframe to pay attention to for the time being. 6z ensembles all have a southern stream system with cold air to the north. Timing will obviously be a factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 I'm really liking the new years ish system that has consistently been showing up the past couple days. Ensembles are pretty supportive of it - there's blocking showing up in all the right places. day 10-14 is the timeframe to pay attention to for the time being. 6z ensembles all have a southern stream system with cold air to the north. Timing will obviously be a factor. Good to see you Mundie, thanks for checking in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 GFS still showing new year's fun. It's too early to post clown maps but they are starting to get colorful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 GFS still showing new year's fun. It's too early to post clown maps but they are starting to get colorful. CMC is banging the drum as well. Check out the blocking on the GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 GFS and the Euro (0z) are bringing a little system in a day after Christmas.Right now it just looks like cold rain.GFS on the last 12z showed a lil more moisture in the 700's,but the freeze level was 2k which would suggest cold rain or some ip in parts of the Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Good thing we won't have to wait long to find out if he's going to be right. I just wonder if this isn't another delayed type of situation. We have definitely had a false start or two to deal with in the past. The thing we have also to remember is that even if it happens as portrayed, it doesn't guarantee winter weather in the south. All that said, my fingers are crossed. I think we are all ready to at least have something to watch. Wxrisk.com **ALERT** POTENTIAL for prolonged period of SERIOUS winter wx DEC 30- JAN 15. POLAR VORTEX Looks to be forced SOUTH- flipping AO to Neg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AphxWFk7rxE&feature=c4-overview&list=UUNUPNCLi_NCFo4ziTQhtrpA This is a good video as it talks about the TNH (Tropical Northern Hemisphere) pattern. The very end of the video rolls forward this pattern so you can see what January MAY look like. It's a pretty good look with a mean storm track from TX to the Carolinas and the PV not too far away in southern Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Good thing we won't have to wait long to find out if he's going to be right. I just wonder if this isn't another delayed type of situation. We have definitely had a false start or two to deal with in the past. The thing we have also to remember is that even if it happens as portrayed, it doesn't guarantee winter weather in the south. All that said, my fingers are crossed. I think we are all ready to at least have something to watch. Wxrisk.com **ALERT** POTENTIAL for prolonged period of SERIOUS winter wx DEC 30- JAN 15. POLAR VORTEX Looks to be forced SOUTH- flipping AO to Neg You are correct, great patterns can yield 0 snowfall. And crappy ones can produce. Still, I would rather have a great pattern heading into the heart of winter any day of the week. I'm ready to track some 80's type events where people from Oklahoma to NC cashed in on strong southern waves dropping snow with the Siberian Husky following! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 You are correct, great patterns can yield 0 snowfall. And crappy ones can produce. Still, I would rather have a great pattern heading into the heart of winter any day of the week. I'm ready to track some 80's type events where people from Oklahoma to NC cashed in on strong southern waves dropping snow with the Siberian Husky following! Amen, you said a mouthful. I too am ready to have something like that to follow with the weather board we have now. It would be extremely fun for many on here and then even more fun to think back in the years to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 FWIW..The Euro on the day after Christmas is now showing rain changing over to snow in the valley.All the thickness look good.Both the GFS and Euro keep getting better with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 FWIW..The Euro on the day after Christmas is now showing rain changing over to snow in the valley.All the thickness look good.Both the GFS and Euro keep getting better with this system. The GFS showed this every run for a 5 straight days and lost it recently. Hopefully it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Our region is definitely due a winter where we have a pattern that's capable of significantly out-performing our normal annual snowfall. If you look back through the records, you'll occasionally see those type of years and they stick out like a sore thumb. Nashville's annual snowfall used to be around 10" per year. Now I think it's closer to 6". We've simply just not had what I call the "old school" winter pattern set in for many, many years. It'll happen again. Hopefully, I'll still be young enough to get out and really enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Looks like Christmas Day is going to be lot chillier than what the models were showing just a few days ago.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Our region is definitely due a winter where we have a pattern that's capable of significantly out-performing our normal annual snowfall. If you look back through the records, you'll occasionally see those type of years and they stick out like a sore thumb. Nashville's annual snowfall used to be around 10" per year. Now I think it's closer to 6". We've simply just not had what I call the "old school" winter pattern set in for many, many years. It'll happen again. Hopefully, I'll still be young enough to get out and really enjoy it. I grew up in Gallatin and lived through some of the snow "drought" that seemingly just won't go away. It truly has been a snow hole for the better part of 2+ decades. I can remember several nice events west, several south of Nashville, several just east, but for whatever reason BNA has escaped year after year. I agree it has to break at some point, why not this winter?? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Nashville can do well but it often sits on the edges of what produces significant amounts of winter weather for West Tennessee and East Tennessee. I'm not sure when the last pure snow event happened that stretched along the entire I-40 corridor. They're extremely rare these days. I grew up in Gallatin and lived through some of the snow "drought" that seemingly just won't go away. It truly has been a snow hole for the better part of 2+ decades. I can remember several nice events west, several south of Nashville, several just east, but for whatever reason BNA has escaped year after year. I agree it has to break at some point, why not this winter??Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Euro esm is bone dry after the after Christmas flakes and drizzle until Jan 3 Think we'll get a better pic after this weekends storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Nashville can do well but it often sits on the edges of what produces significant amounts of winter weather for West Tennessee and East Tennessee. I'm not sure when the last pure snow event happened that stretched along the entire I-40 corridor. They're extremely rare these days. We was living in Lawrenceburg when the big snow came down there during Christmas a few years ago,we got around 10".Actually felt like Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clarksville Snowman Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Here's hoping the epo goes back negative and helps split that polar vortex, the end of the year is starting to get me excited. At least the models are trending in a good direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 20, 2013 Author Share Posted December 20, 2013 The CPC PNA ensembles hint at the PNA going strongly negative - yikes. The NAO appears to be going slowly(I mean slowly) negative - thumbs up. From the birth of the TN Valley board I think all of us have seen the promise that late December and January hold. Glad to see that beginning to take shape in the modelling. The 18z GFS, FWIW, looks pretty good. The 12z Euro is beginning to look interesting. Again, I think patience will be rewarded by climo. We are far enough north (barely) that most of us see some winter. It has not been bad honestly. Snow before Thanksgiving, etc. At this point, I think things are about to get busy. Really, I can't wait to see the new board take-off w/ a good event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 20, 2013 Author Share Posted December 20, 2013 CPC has their new 30 and 90 day outlooks. Equal chances for most of the TN Valley in the 30 day. They are banking on an early spring it appears in the 90 day. Here is the chilly 8-14 day forecast: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 0Z is trying to brew something up in the GOM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 20, 2013 Author Share Posted December 20, 2013 Could be nothing. Could be something. GOM is brewing something. Pretty far out to get overly worked-up about...but maybe we'll have something to watch if this feature persists. GFS is cold in the medium to long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 20, 2013 Author Share Posted December 20, 2013 0z Euro shows an interesting feature at 168. Again, something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Could be nothing. Could be something. GOM is brewing something. Pretty far out to get overly worked-up about...but maybe we'll have something to watch if this feature persists. GFS is cold in the medium to long range. Something has been showing up in that timeframe for 4 days straight. Ensembles seem to support a gulf system in that timeframe as well. How cold it will be is up for grabs. But when I see Euro, CMC, and GFS locking into some significant blocking in the 8-10 day mean, I get excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 21, 2013 Author Share Posted December 21, 2013 The 0z GFS continues to show a promising pattern from Christmas onward...maybe a small upslope event for good measure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Euro is putting out some .10 qpf,for the 26th system for Mid/Tn (looking at the text for Nashville),most i've seen yet.Weak system though still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Ensembles say.. "winter is coming, winter is coming" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Ensembles say.. "winter is coming, winter is coming" Yes they do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Loving the looks on the ensembles. Fingers crossed such a good look doesn't trend toward something more marginal as we get closer. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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