jaxjagman Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Brutally ugly indices except for the PNA. We need to get rid of that stupid vortex over Iceland. It's like pouring water down a funnel. Unless there's some spill over, it mostly just pours right into that thing. Yup, plenty of cold air bottled up in Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I've seen worse 8-10 day. Looks like the AO region is trying to become a little more favorable but the NAO region is still dog feces... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Have to start watching for a severe threat for the upcoming storm for the valley from the next system.Just looked at some perimeters off the 12z and the meteogram and the k-index is now close to 40 and a a warm nose pulling some 65+ dp's into M/TN.Some LI -5 around Memphis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 The 12z GFS didn't look horrific. Glancing blows of cold followed by moderation (Groundhog Day pattern). However, if we can get some relaxation of the +NAO and still keep the -EPO, we just might be looking pretty good toward the beginning of the new year. You gotta think that at some point, the AO and NAO will cooperate. If they do, hopefully the pacific won't crap the bed on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 The 12z GFS didn't look horrific. Glancing blows of cold followed by moderation (Groundhog Day pattern). However, if we can get some relaxation of the +NAO and still keep the -EPO, we just might be looking pretty good toward the beginning of the new year. You gotta think that at some point, the AO and NAO will cooperate. If they do, hopefully the pacific won't crap the bed on us. Good post. I think the EPO will remain mostly negative and that will be a big help. That pool of warm water in the Pacific is really a plus for us this year. Without that, we would be experiencing a very mild late fall and early winter. It's been driving the bus without a doubt. I am encouraged by the signs of ridging almost to the pole and am patiently waiting for the Atlantic to take a break on screwing with us. I think eventually it will and we will find ourselves with something to track (hopefully sooner than later). There is a reason why snow in the mid-south/southeast is a rarity. We need a LOT to go right to serve up a snowstorm. The further north you go you can get by with a less than perfect pattern. Not so much here. It's also why snow in the south is so special. If it did it all the time, most of us wouldn't be this snow crazed. We need to keep in mind that it's still only MID December. I think good times are ahead, but patience is definitely a virtue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 AccuWeather.com® Professional Forecast Model Text Information.png Delayed, but not denied? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 So just how big of a block (or blocks) do we want in the Pacific?Perhaps we can get the Pacific to run our blocking clean all the way to Greenland, telling the Atlantic to screw itself and trapping the cold underneath?? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 So just how big of a block (or blocks) do we want in the Pacific?Perhaps we can get the Pacific to run our blocking clean all the way to Greenland, telling the Atlantic to screw itself and trapping the cold underneath?? lol 12zecmwf500mbHeightAnomalyNA240 12172013.gif Yeah, the Pacific's going big right there. It's doing it's best imitation of Pedro Cerrano on Major League. "Screw you Atlantic...I do it myself!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Blah,looks colder but also it's showing signs of the SER making it back,still 10 days out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Well, at least we have a fantasy storm to track for New Year's Eve according to the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 To bad the weeklies can't be right.850's looked decent all the way through after this next system with the exception of a couple days transient weather which is typical for the SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 17, 2013 Author Share Posted December 17, 2013 The models definitely looked better today. We are going to have to be patient. December is rarely great for E TN at least in terms of winter wx. Definitely a few features catching my attention. Anyway, wx here is usually not boring, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 The models definitely looked better today. We are going to have to be patient. December is rarely great for E TN at least in terms of winter wx. Definitely a few features catching my attention. Anyway, wx here is usually not boring, Yeah this is true,winter don't even start until Sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Unfortunately, the Euro ensembles were in a totally different camp than the OP. hoping we see more favorable runs the next several days though...... Been quiet the last few days now. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lindsaywx Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Unfortunately, the Euro ensembles were in a totally different camp than the OP. hoping we see more favorable runs the next several days though...... Been quiet the last few days now. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk The ensemble mean has more of a -nao look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Unfortunately, the Euro ensembles were in a totally different camp than the OP. hoping we see more favorable runs the next several days though...... Been quiet the last few days now. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk The ensemble mean has more of a -nao look Encouraging! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 I like this trend of the GFS giving love to the weenies in the late hours. Fun to look at compared to the last several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Good signs of the ao going negative on the op models and ensembles. Nao goes to neutral, little pna spike too. Cmc tries to keep our Christmas eve miracle alive, although its on life support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Good signs of the ao going negative on the op models and ensembles. Nao goes to neutral, little pna spike too. Cmc tries to keep our Christmas eve miracle alive, although its on life support. CMC does try to get cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0400 AM CST WED DEC 18 2013VALID 211200Z - 261200Z...DISCUSSION......TX...ARKLATEX...LOWER MS/LOWER OH VALLEY ON SAT/D4...THE VARIOUS MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT INSHOWING THE LOCATION OF GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL FROM TX INTO THELOWER MS VALLEY ON SAT/D4 AS THE SWRN UPPER LOW/TROUGH EJECTSRAPIDLY NEWD ALONG WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW/WAVE ALONG THESTATIONARY/WARM FRONT. S OF THIS FRONT...AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTUREWILL EXIST WITH MID TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS.NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ALONG AND N OF A STATIONARYFRONT EARLY ON SAT/D4...FROM WRN TX NEWD ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEYAND INTO SERN MO...WHERE STRONG WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION WILL EXISTCOURTESY OF A 60 KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET. RAPID COOLING ALOFT...AVEER/BACK SIGNAL IN THE WIND PROFILE IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER...ARATHER MERIDIONAL UPPER FLOW REGIME AS WELL AS A SEMI-CAPPED WARMSECTOR SUGGEST THAT A STRONGLY FORCED QLCS WILL BE LIKELY...CAPABLEOF DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. THE GREATEST THREAT AREA ISEXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW TRACK ALONG THE DEVELOPING WARMFRONT...OR THE NRN HALF OF THE OUTLOOK AREA....SUN/D5 AND BEYOND...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER THE MID MSVALLEY/LOWER OH VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOSS OF AMPLITUDECOMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT WITHONGOING STORMS SHOULD TRAIL APPROXIMATELY FROM IND/OH SWWD ACROSSTN/AL/MS WITH SOME ONGOING THREAT. GIVEN TIMING ISSUES AS WELL ASTHE LOSS OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE N...WILL DEFER ANY SEVEREAREAS TO LATER OUTLOOKS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE GREATESTPOTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR A FEW TORNADOES WOULD BE ACROSSERN MS/AL/GA AND TN IN PROXIMITY TO THE MOST ROBUST MOISTURE ANDMARGINAL INSTABILITY...WITH LINEAR STORM MODE MOST LIKELY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 PNA goes + after the next storm then drops back down to -,should be enough to keep the SER at bay for a little while,NAO is dropping also,hope down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 We're moving in the right direction! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Yeah it really kind of gets your hopes up.....think about keeping this -EPO/WPO pattern with it's big healthly cold shots. Add to that some blocking with an STJ? We may be in business later in january. Or maybe not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 We're moving in the right direction! Maybe the New years eve storm or around that time will give us some love Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 19, 2013 Author Share Posted December 19, 2013 The 18z GFS had a great look for winter wx lovers in the SE from Christmas onward. The 12z Euro had some strong northwest flow. Strong PNA in both and the southeast ridge is gone. Good turn of events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Great look on the ensembles post Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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