IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Seems we can analyze that band placement all day, but it's really going to come down to tomorrow AM and looking out the window and at the radar! I will say it has been a rather exciting start to the season... I love these smaller events. It's nice to have these constant snow threats while we wait for something bigger to evolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 The RGEM is in, overall not as NW of the NAM...it seems as if it might see that mesoscale band too but cannot necessarily place it, its evolution from 15-18Z is strange and it shows this suddenly heavier max band over NE PA at the 15-18Z timeframe...entirely possible its seeing evidence of a meso band but not exactly placing it.. http://meteocentre.com/models/get_anim.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=12&mod=gemreg&stn=PNMPR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 RGEM with a tighter gradient but came in wetter than its prior 00 and 06z runs. Around 0.20-0.25". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 RGEM with a tighter gradient but came in wetter than its prior 00 and 06z runs. Around 0.20-0.25". Why it pulls all its QPF due east from 15-18Z I'm not sure...could be that its focusing the energy back to the developing surface low, it may be a convective feedback issue (the low centers seem to be many), or it could be as I said earlier its seeing a mesoscale band effect and is having trouble resolving it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 The RGEM is in, overall not as NW of the NAM...it seems as if it might see that mesoscale band too but cannot necessarily place it, its evolution from 15-18Z is strange and it shows this suddenly heavier max band over NE PA at the 15-18Z timeframe...entirely possible its seeing evidence of a meso band but not exactly placing it.. http://meteocentre.com/models/get_anim.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=12&mod=gemreg&stn=PNMPR Cautiously optimistic at this point. This really does have the makings of a JP for someone and a screw job for his neighbor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Why it pulls all its QPF due east from 15-18Z I'm not sure...could be that its focusing the energy back to the developing surface low, it may be a convective feedback issue (the low centers seem to be many), or it could be as I said earlier its seeing a mesoscale band effect and is having trouble resolving it The 4k NAM sets up that band over NE PA and then slides it east. As it travels east, it weakens a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 These are like norluns , hard to predict , 20 miles wide and they come with a tight gradient . This is just slanted and not inverted , but the dynamics are kind of similar . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 NWS in Balt/DC just issued winter storm watches for 5" or more of snow tomorrow in much of VA/MD. Let's hope it makes it this far north... http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=VAZ054&warncounty=VAC013&firewxzone=VAZ054&local_place1=&product1=Winter+Storm+Watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Text Output for 12z NAM KJFK - 5.6" KLGA - 6.3" KISP - 5.2" KMMU - 6.1" KSWF - 3.2" KHPN - 6.3" KEWR - 6.3" Ratios are in the 14:1 ratio or better in some locals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 NWS in Balt/DC just issued winter storm watches for 5" or more of snow tomorrow in much of VA/MD. Let's hope it makes it this far north... http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=VAZ054&warncounty=VAC013&firewxzone=VAZ054&local_place1=&product1=Winter+Storm+Watch Doubtful..this is advisory level snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 NWS in Balt/DC just issued winter storm watches for 5" or more of snow tomorrow in much of VA/MD. Let's hope it makes it this far north... http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=VAZ054&warncounty=VAC013&firewxzone=VAZ054&local_place1=&product1=Winter+Storm+Watch Warning criteria snowfall is less down that way. Confidence right now is low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Text Output for 12z NAM KJFK - 5.6" KLGA - 6.3" KISP - 5.2" KMMU - 6.1" KSWF - 3.2" KHPN - 6.3" KEWR - 6.3" Ratios are in the 14:1 ratio or better in some locals. At least the ratios and snowgrowth look favorable for us given the cold mid levels, so 0.3" QPF could mean 4-5" of snow. I think warning levels would be pushing it but it should at least be solid advisory level if everything comes together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 At least the ratios and snowgrowth look favorable for us given the cold mid levels, so 0.3" QPF could mean 4-5" of snow. I think warning levels would be pushing it but it should at least be solid advisory level if everything comes together. A lot of the text ouputs give locations 0.40" or greater of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I would expect someone in N/C NJ, S NY, SW CT to get 6-8" from this (whoever gets luck with the banding). This wave is being more robustly depicted than the last one was for S NJ and they were able to get 6-12" with ratios. Someone will be very happy tomorrow IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Hr 30 mod snow in the area. 12z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I would expect someone in N/C NJ, S NY, SW CT to get 6-8" from this (whoever gets luck with the banding). This wave is being more robustly depicted than the last one was for S NJ and they were able to get 6-12" with ratios. Someone will be very happy tomorrow IMO. Yeah the ratios are going to be great. No shortage of cold air. The RH looks pretty solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Wow this is a solid hit! 4-8 on gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Wow this is a solid hit! 4-8 on gfs Encouraging to see no model back off yet this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 GFS is sweet. I would guess KNYC is around 0.45 (wetter than the NAM!!!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 12z GFS looks like the NAM, maybe even more robust. 0.5"+ line makes it NW of I-95. 0.25"+ for NW areas. Snow maps show 6-8" for all of NJ. 2-4" for central Long Island. 8"+ for the northern Philly burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Game on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I'm pretty interested in this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 12z GFS even shows 4-6" for far NW areas like Orange and Sullivan counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Snow would be starting by 7am based on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 never trust snow maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 With this falling on top of our ice covered snow watch out for avalanches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 If you look at the 250mb winds you can see why this is so favorable for our area. We are in the exit region of a 180kt+ jet. We usually talk about 700mb vv's to look at where the highest rates will occur but as has been discussed over in USAwx, the best upward motion is actually occurring higher, which means are snow rates will be higher (ie snow growth in a colder region of the atmosphere). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 never trust snow maps Thanks for not letting us down! Plenty of QPF and excellent ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 never trust snow maps How bout bufkit or soundings? Temps below freezing and 0.5 LE. How much would you expect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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