UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 New SREF's came pretty noticeably north and west with 0.25"+ for much of NE NJ, SE NY, NYC, LI. Were a bit more apprehensive at 15z. If the 00z euro and gfs move north on this I'll be happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 If the 00z euro and gfs move north on this I'll be happy The gfs already came north just waiting to see if the euro budges Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 The gfs already came north just waiting to see if the euro budges I meant RGEM not gfs sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 That's what thought about wave 1 and 2 lmao difference is we'll have a more sustainable cold air source that wont be scoured out as easily. tonights and early tomorrow model runs will tell if this storm will be a threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 difference is we'll have a more sustainable cold air source that wont be scoured out as easily. tonights and early tomorrow model runs will tell if this storm will be a threat It would have been nice to have this low level cold the other night when it rained cats and dogs for 12 hours haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 It would have been nice to have this low level cold the other night when it rained cats and dogs for 12 hours haha that would've been nice and we'd be posting pics of our first snowstorm region-wide. this is why we NEED that all important -NAO flexing its muscles to not make these wound up lows cut and bring in the warmer ocean air and kill all cold air around here. we needed the rain though and any moisture at this point is welcome to our area(s). give it credit the cold air overperformed in the face of terrible teleconnectors, a lot of us saw our official first snowfall today including me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 New SREF's came pretty noticeably north and west with 0.25"+ for much of NE NJ, SE NY, NYC, LI. Were a bit more apprehensive at 15z. SREF's really do a good job in the short range ( 48 hrs. or less ) so im happy with this development. onto the 00z suite tonight earthlight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 SREF's really do a good job in the short range ( 48 hrs. or less ) so im happy with this development. onto the 00z suite tonight earthlight Man I hope the euro shows somethin good lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Man I hope the euro shows somethin good lol lets not make the euro out to be perfect, the euro wasn't exactly stellar with this storm. the models have been consistently underestimating the CAD, more so away from the coast. Yes, though the euro is important to have on board as well as it rarely does have no clue with a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 lets not make the euro out to be perfect, the euro wasn't exactly stellar with this storm. the models have been consistently underestimating the CAD, more so away from the coast. Yes, though the euro is important to have on board as well as it rarely does have no clue with a storm That's what I was referring to as in trending towards other models... Trust me at this point until I see consistency I wont believe any single model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 New SREF's came pretty noticeably north and west with 0.25"+ for much of NE NJ, SE NY, NYC, LI. Were a bit more apprehensive at 15z. Interesting. It's a quick hitter and now both GFS and SREFs seem on board. It's interesting to see 20-30% POPs in a short range for the NWS. Their forecase for the first wave was honestly spot on up here in the NW despite outlets wanting to pump it up to more snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 00z NAM amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 00z nam has snow overspreading the area by noon tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Interesting. It's a quick hitter and now both GFS and SREFs seem on board. It's interesting to see 20-30% POPs in a short range for the NWS. Their forecase for the first wave was honestly spot on up here in the NW despite outlets wanting to pump it up to more snow... ...and the NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 00z nam mod to heavy snow hr 42….wish this was the euro showing this ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 00z nam has snow overspreading the area by noon tuesday Earlier than that. .37 has fallen by 1 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 hr 45 00z nam mod-heavy snow continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 00z nam mod to heavy snow hr 42….wish this was the euro showing this ugh How's the nam look for the lower hudson valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Earlier than that. .37 has fallen by 1 pm you sure thats not from tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 SECS on the Nam lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 you sure thats not from tonight? Printout shows .37" between 12z and 18z so I'm guessing it starts by mid morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Wanna see the euro replicate this NAM run. That's a pretty cold snowy run Looks like a mod event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Just about 1/2" of liquid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 looks like a 3-5/4-8 type snowfall on the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Maybe we shouldn't have been so shocked at the strong band dropping those significant amounts around Philly and parts of NJ, Delaware, and PA. Whenever you have a strong temperature gradient in a WAA event, someone often gets hammered. The same thing could happen with this wave, so I wouldn't completely throw out the Nam if it shows too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Maybe we shouldn't have been so shocked at the strong band dropping those significant amounts around Philly and parts of NJ, Delaware, and PA. Whenever you have a strong temperature gradient in a WAA event, someone often gets hammered. The same thing could happen with this wave, so I wouldn't completely throw out the Nam if it shows too much. The nam saw this for today's wave it was just off on the location of the heavy band of precip.. So I def wouldn't let the NAMS wetter bias deter u from using it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Maybe we shouldn't have been so shocked at the strong band dropping those significant amounts around Philly and parts of NJ, Delaware, and PA. Whenever you have a strong temperature gradient in a WAA event, someone often gets hammered. The same thing could happen with this wave, so I wouldn't completely throw out the Nam if it shows too much. You may be on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 The nam saw this for today's wave it was just off on the location of the heavy band of precip.. So I def wouldn't let the NAMS wetter bias deter u from using it True, the Nam is also showing more of a coastal signature, which could support those higher amounts if it continues to trend in that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 True, the Nam is also showing more of a coastal signature, which could support those higher amounts if it continues to trend in that direction. We can only hope, I'm very curious to see the euro, I may actually stay up for this one lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 The upper levels have been gradually improving. That's why this event has improved on the progs. Gradually more PVA ahead of the trof leading to slightly more lift and surface deepening. Nice to see the model progs starting to show precip breaking out in the MO Valley moving into the OH Valley on Tue morning. I hope it's real. I wouldn't disregard the 0z NAM based on pretty good support from recent cycles of the GEFS. But we are probably looking at a relatively short duration event and the NAM is likely too wet. However, this might not be done trending, and with cold temps and moderate precip intensities, things could look very wintry on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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