SnoSki14 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 The upper levels have been gradually improving. That's why this event has improved on the progs. Gradually more PVA ahead of the trof leading to slightly more lift and surface deepening. Nice to see the model progs starting to show precip breaking out in the MO Valley moving into the OH Valley on Tue morning. I hope it's real. I wouldn't disregard the 0z NAM based on pretty good support from recent cycles of the GEFS. But we are probably looking at a relatively short duration event and the NAM is likely too wet. However, this might not be done trending, and with cold temps and moderate precip intensities, things could look very wintry on Tuesday. That would be nice and the good part is we would keep the snow that falls instead of seeing it get washed away due to the cold weather coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Looks like a possible slant wise convection event. If so the northeast cities would see a decent snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Looks like a possible slant wise convection event. If so the northeast cities would see a decent snow event. Forgive my ignorance but what is a slant wise convention event exactly? This is the first time I'm hearing that term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 As per the AMS A form of convection driven by a combination of gravitational and centrifugal forces. Slantwise convection can occur in baroclinic flows in which the slantwise-upward displacement of air parcels, elongated in the direction of the thermal wind, results in a vector combination of buoyancy and Coriolis (or centrifugal) and pressure-gradient accelerations that drive the parcel in the same direction as the displacement. In addition the COMET program has an excellent web base training on this subject. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 The RGEM probably more in the range of normalcy on the QPF, looks like it has maybe 3 tenths total liquid for the coast if I did my conversion math right from MM....here is just its 15-18Z 3 hour period... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 hr 36 light snow moving into area 00z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 hr 39 steady light -mod snow…. dca and baltimore getting mod snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 hr 42 mod snow for the area.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 hr 45 light-mod snow…looks like a 2-4/3-6 type deal on gfs…php and bwi get the most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 00z gfs snow maps are 4-6 for the metro area…less in hudson valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Both the NAM and GFS stick the best lifting from Philly thru NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Compromise between rgem/nam/sref/gfs is about 2-4in. Something we all would gladly take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 correct me if i'm wrong, but it looks like GFS keeps us in the 20s all day Wed. Could be the model reacting to at least some snow cover being established.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 correct me if i'm wrong, but it looks like GFS keeps us in the 20s all day Wed. Could be the model reacting to at least some snow cover being established.... Very likely. Looks to be a cold week capped off by another storm threat for the weekend. How terrible a winter pattern we are in for day 8 of met winter. NOT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Compromise between rgem/nam/sref/gfs is about 2-4in. Something we all would gladly take. It's possible we see someone get locally much greater amounts depending on the best banding like what happened today. 2-4" is a good call though for now. We might have better ratios as well with temps likely in the upper 20s when it snows. All this cold should rapidly turn those positive departures around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 That's .25 in of liquid and its falling through ,minus 8 to minus 10 air . You can do better than 10 to 1 . Sorry RAY ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 0z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Might be first decent snowfall for NYC and BOS. It's always the systems that aren't modeled 10 days out that are the best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Might be first decent snowfall for NYC and BOS. It's always the systems that aren't modeled 10 days out that are the best Then you are gona like Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Then you are gona like Sunday GFS tries to get a secondary going but never does. The low rides inland but the freezing line is right near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 GFS tries to get a secondary going but never does. The low rides inland but the freezing line is right near the coast. They'll be plenty of time to watch this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Not a bad pattern, chances for snow grow exponentially as we get later into December and January. People would probably like this pattern a lot in a month of so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Channel 7 said 2-4 inches looking more likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 00z GEFS a bit wetter, or at least as wet as the OP. Has about 0.25 from 36-42. Total qpf would probably be around 0.3-0.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 The 00z 4k NAM has a weenie band right over I-95 on Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I believe the euro will show this event in the next run otherwise it will be the euro against the world Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Wouldn't surprise me if euro showed 1-3 inches tonight..just a hunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Dr No says Yes 2 - 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 ECM says around an inch unless you are in southern NJ (again) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 The 00z 4k NAM has a weenie band right over I-95 on Tuesday morning. Yep we will see. The GFS has been my fav model since the summer, its has been generally scoring well storm after storm. - It also seems like the EURO is caving to the GFS constantly lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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