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December Pattern Disco- 2013

Damage In Tolland

By Damage In Tolland,
in New England

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted

There's been plenty of mixed events around NYC like 12/19/08, 1/28/09, and 2/2/11. Those were all SW flow events that started as snow but mixed for many. Overall the rain/snow line might be further north than 30 years ago but that doesn't mean we can't have mixed precipitation events.

 

obv mixed events still and will happen. they just arent as frequent as my childhood days. most likely due to the type of pattern we seem to establish lately, ie -NAO per CoastWx comments. but im curious at what point are we setting a trend....or do we cycle back to more mediocre winters with smaller events and less KUs.

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It's Always Sunny

It's Always Sunny

Posted
Posted

Mets are allowed to with no repercussions .

I feel bad that you get sh*t on a lot for hyping, which even led to a temporary suspension if I remember correctly. Absurd if you ask me.

 

I don't consider what I said "trolling". I live in New England so I have every right to post what I want. People who are on this forum a lot often forget that there are some on this board that don't like snow, especially since the regulars on this board all have a pants tent for cold/winter/snow.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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The weeklies are a pattern they gave me almost 30" in December 2007 and 2008. They are fine. Just watch where the gradient sets up an if ridge retros to Kamchatka mid month. That would be bad, but ensembles look

Good to me. I think it's close to being a snowy pattern even this far out.

 

 

Yep, there is a SE ridge on the weeklies, but its in a good spot for us with the northenr tier being cold.

 

 

Too early to obviously know if it will verify like that and we will enjoy several snow events....we could still end up on the wrong sde of several storm systems.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
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I feel bad that you get sh*t on a lot for hyping, which even led to a temporary suspension if I remember correctly. Absurd if you ask me.

 

I don't consider what I said "trolling". I live in New England so I have every right to post what I want. People who are on this forum a lot often forget that there are some on this board that don't like snow, especially since the regulars on this board all have a pants tent for cold/winter/snow.

I don't remember you being this anti-snow at Plymouth. :lol:

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted

It's actually a cold rainstorm verbatim.

LOL

 

They look great after the relaxation period Dec 3-6. That post Dec 6th look is pretty awesome. Lets hope it sticks around. We'd probably have multiple events to track in that setup.

Finally, a pattern in which I should school CT....been awhile...

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It's Always Sunny

It's Always Sunny

Posted
Posted

I don't remember you being this anti-snow at Plymouth. :lol:

I expected it more up there than back where I am now so I had a higher tolerance for it. Honestly my dislike has grown over the years but it's mainly the cold I hate, not the snow if that makes any sense, but unfortunately they go hand in hand a lot of times. I'm always game for a back-breaking blizzard though just because of the forecasting excitement it brings and the results that follow like snowfall amounts, winds, road shutdowns, delays/closures, etc, oh, and the typical warm up afterwards.  B)

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joey2002

joey2002

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I expected it more up there than back where I am now so I had a higher tolerance for it. Honestly my dislike has grown over the years but it's mainly the cold I hate, not the snow if that makes any sense, but unfortunately they go hand in hand a lot of times. I'm always game for a back-breaking blizzard though just because of the forecasting excitement it brings and the results that follow like snowfall amounts, winds, road shutdowns, delays/closures, etc, oh, and the typical warm up afterwards.  B)

 

You should change your screen name to "snow hater" :frostymelt:

 

(or just put the melting snowman in your signature) :snowing:

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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Here is this years forecast. His accuracy does say something about historical context and the "feeling" that some have. Jerry's squirrel type deal.

http://m.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/11/20/judah-cohens-winter-outlook-a-downer-for-east-coast-winter-weather-lovers/

 

We switched in feb, but I think that was due to a more Nino look to the pattern...I don't know if we can relate that to snow cover in Siberia, but perhaps it helped.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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Pattern going forward after next week looks good. Super dateline ridging should keep the cold pouring into the Plains. I think we'll see pieces breaking east with storminess to boot. Hopefully no stemwinders because that will furnace us, but modest systems are in the cards I think. Next week still looks somewhat mild, but that coastal storm may keep cheap cold air at the surface Tuesday. It's really warm aloft so snow seems very limited with this, but it is early. Looks like another warmup Friday into Saturday and then we try to turn the corner.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
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We switched in feb, but I think that was due to a more Nino look to the pattern...I don't know if we can relate that to snow cover in Siberia, but perhaps it helped.

Are you familiar with the climate met that Harv featured last night?

Swears by him.....he employs Siberian snow cover during the month of October as a predictor for the following winter. Anyway, said that it was a robust cover for the majority of the month, but a late warm up/melt caused him to predict a warm/near normal snowfall season.....with an elevated risk of a blockbuster.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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Are you familiar with the climate met that Harv featured last night?

Swears by him.....he employs Siberian snow cover during the month of October as a predictor for the following winter. Anyway, said that it was a robust cover for the majority of the month, but a late warm up/melt caused him to predict a warm/near normal snowfall season.....with an elevated risk of a blockbuster.

 

I know of him, Harvey loves him..lol. Well the correlation is good, but not always a slam dunk. The correlation is rather high, but Will pointed out a few times where the actual snow cover extent worked better than the snow advance index for a -AO.  Basically he is arguing for a +AO which as a default would keep us milder and near normal snow. Not all +AO's are the same...just look at the gradient seasons we had...they all had a +AO....well most of them. My theory is having the PV on our side of the globe makes it easier to have a decent snowfall season. +AO with PV on the other side of the pole is not so good. The key is dateline ridging. Have that and we are in much better shape.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
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I know of him, Harvey loves him..lol. Well the correlation is good, but not always a slam dunk. The correlation is rather high, but Will pointed out a few times where the actual snow cover extent worked better than the snow advance index for a -AO. Basically he is arguing for a +AO which as a default would keep us milder and near normal snow. Not all +AO's are the same...just look at the gradient seasons we had...they all had a +AO....well most of them. My theory is having the PV on our side of the globe makes it easier to have a decent snowfall season. +AO with PV on the other side of the pole is not so good. The key is dateline ridging. Have that and we are in much better shape.

Cohen says as much himself that the indicators are in conflict which almost never happens. That said his AO predictions are never wrong but he admits this year is an interesting one because of the indicator conflict.

http://m.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/11/20/judah-cohens-winter-outlook-a-downer-for-east-coast-winter-weather-lovers/

""" This October was highly anomalous in that the snow cover extent [sCE] and the snow advance index [sAI] strongly diverged. The SCE was well above normal, which is a robust prediction of a negative winter AO while the SAI was well below normal, which is a robust prediction of a positive winter AO. This has never happened over the forty years that we have calculated both indices. I view the SAI as the more reliable predictor but I also think it would be a mistake to dismiss the high Siberian SCE from this past October. How the two predictions evolve this winter should be interesting"""

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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Cohen says as much himself that the indicators are in conflict which almost never happens. That said his AO predictions are never wrong but he admits this year is an interesting one because of the indicator conflict.

http://m.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/11/20/judah-cohens-winter-outlook-a-downer-for-east-coast-winter-weather-lovers/

 

The method has been wrong before regarding the prediction of the AO..but it does have a high correlation or R value as we say. I saw that piece...it sounds like he doesn't have high confidence. I also think we will have a +AO winter.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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i'm feeling pretty good about the period from the 7th-20th...in an overall sense

 

I just had an interesting convo with Mike Ventrice. He was saying these big wave breaking events our causing these CCKWs to enhance convection and force those RMM MJO progs to falsely say where the MJO is.The CCKW is moving out of the Pacific and convective forcing will turn to the maritime continent. However, the pool of warmer water is still near the dateline along with the MJO signal. So when we have another big ridge build..another CCKW may form again and enhance the signal.

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

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I just had an interesting convo with Mike Ventrice. He was saying these big wave breaking events our causing these CCKWs to enhance convection and force those RMM MJO progs to falsely say where the MJO is.The CCKW is moving out of the Pacific and convective forcing will turn to the maritime continent. However, the pool of warmer water is still near the dateline along with the MJO signal. So when we have another big ridge build..another CCKW may form again and enhance the signal.

enhance the "false" readings on the wheeler diagrams you mean?

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

enhance the "false" readings on the wheeler diagrams you mean?

 

It will do a Tippy constructive and destructive interference. Yeah, it could enhance the signal near the dateline down the road. The basic idea is that the RMM graphics will sort of falsely think the MJO is in one spot when it's just the CCKW enhancing convection and then once that leaves..all of the sudden the RMM progs change in a matter of a few days. So, the RMM progs may do a bad job at MJO forecasting.

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