snow. Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 There is no pronounced surface low and a retreating high. Heights and temps won't crash. But that doesn't matter because plenty of precip overruns the cold dome before thermals go to sheet. it pronounces just in time to hit 40N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 How much warmer do we get afterwards and for how long? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 800mb-700mb..I'll look at soundings...maybe I am being too dour and we can get 90% snow....I am just assuming we will mix here in the city...when I say changeover it could mean sleet or zr Thanks that is what i thought. In this area being dour is the way to go 95% of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 800mb-700mb..I'll look at soundings...maybe I am being too dour and we can get 90% snow....I am just assuming we will mix here in the city...when I say changeover it could mean sleet or zr There's little chance we remain all snow (95 s and e), even in the best of setups we can't do it. I'm cool with 90% frozen and 10% wet/drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 800mb-700mb..I'll look at soundings...maybe I am being too dour and we can get 90% snow....I am just assuming we will mix here in the city...when I say changeover it could mean sleet or zr Its a snow sounding at 162 from where I am... unless I am reading it wrong. 168 is pressing it... prob SNPL... and 171 def shows the warm layer... so looks like precip before 168 is snow, and whatever after is sleet/freezing rain/drizzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 it pronounces just in time to hit 40N. yeah and it looks to turn back to snow for us, which is always a great thing regardless of the taint of zr/sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 2, 2013 Author Share Posted December 2, 2013 800mb-700mb..I'll look at soundings...maybe I am being too dour and we can get 90% snow....I am just assuming we will mix here in the city...when I say changeover it could mean sleet or zr Even 75% snow is spiking the ball. We'll mix towards the end. How much precip falls at that point is a big ?. Trends are very encouraging for sure. I just want 2-3" of snow. That's my bar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 2, 2013 Author Share Posted December 2, 2013 it pronounces just in time to hit 40N. I simply don't care anymore. My bar is low and reasonable. I'll be happy as F with needing to shovel and snow covered roads for a time. Life does not exist outside of my yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Its a snow sounding at 162 from where I am... unless I am reading it wrong. 168 is pressing it... prob SNPL... and 171 def shows the warm layer... so looks like precip before 168 is snow, and whatever after is sleet/freezing rain/drizzle Verbatim all SN at DCA until Hr.168 when it flips to IP b/c of warm layer at 750mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Sick CAD.. Pulls western VA to sub 20 temps in a raging sleet and ZR event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Even 75% snow is spiking the ball. We'll mix towards the end. How much precip falls at that point is a big ?. Trends are very encouraging for sure. I just want 2-3" of snow. That's my bar. Just a smidge after 850's warm and sfc goes to like 33-34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 I just looked at soundings for DCA around 0.45" all snow Around 0.30" briefly sleet and then quickly to freezing rain all precip falls entirely with the surface below freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Verbatim all SN at DCA until Hr.168 when it flips to IP b/c of warm layer at 750mb. this is how much has fallen thru 168 hrs http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=168ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_168_precip_p12.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_p12&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 2, 2013 Author Share Posted December 2, 2013 I just looked at soundings for DCA around 0.45" all snow Around 0.30" briefly sleet and then quickly to freezing rain Td and.missed 2pt conversion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 poor wes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 I just looked at soundings for DCA around 0.45" all snow Around 0.30" briefly sleet and then quickly to freezing rain all precip falls entirely with the surface below freezing We take the football and go hide it somewhere where Wes cannot find it and overturn the call on teh field Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 poor wes gfs_6hr_snow_acc_washdc_61.png that might be a better snow map than most....wes is further west...he actually does pretty well according to that map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 If it only was the 6hr GFS instead of the 165 hr GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 We take the football and go hide it somewhere where Wes cannot find it and overturn the call on teh field the problem is it is 156 hours away and the models don't have a lot of skill....pretty much any solution is on the table...rain, snow, mix, ice, whiff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Sick CAD.. Pulls western VA to sub 20 temps in a raging sleet and ZR event Quick burst of snow to begin and then ZR/IP for the rest of the time. Nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Sick CAD.. Pulls western VA to sub 20 temps in a raging sleet and ZR event Lovely. Generator sales just increased for this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Only 27 runs to go before onset of the potential event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Only 27 runs to go before onset of the potential event... Think on the bright side only 13 more EURO runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 2, 2013 Author Share Posted December 2, 2013 Only 27 runs to go before onset of the potential event... And within those runs we will have seen rain, thumps, whiffs, OMG's, and icemageddon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Lovely. Generator sales just increased for this week. I'm guessing it's a ton of sleet-- for a while as modeled. 4k feet of -3 to -5 would be sleet. Quick burst of snow to begin and then ZR/IP for the rest of the time. Nasty. Crazy event as modeled. Has been consistent. If anything, we trend more toward ZR and less SN.. but wetter. Just getting through soundings, it's hanging by a thread to snow at LYH at 162. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 sure felt good going to the Ready site for soundings it ain't real winter till' I start doing that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 I'm guessing it's a ton of sleet-- for a while as modeled. 4k feet of -3 to -5 would be sleet. Crazy event as modeled. Has been consistent. If anything, we trend more toward ZR and less SN.. but wetter. Just getting through soundings, it's hanging by a thread to snow at LYH at 162. I haven't looked at the model run...how much is a ton of sleet? Enough to break the 7+ inches I got with Pres. Day II storm in 2003?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 I haven't looked at the model run...how much is a ton of sleet? Enough to break the 7+ inches I got with Pres. Day II storm in 2003?? Not hard to believe considering some locales received upwards of 3 feet on the eastern side of Baltimore with that one. A truly historic system, winter weather for days, thunder snow, and an interesting set-up. A hybrid miller B. That may be a set-up the region can succeed with this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 I haven't looked at the model run...how much is a ton of sleet? Enough to break the 7+ inches I got with Pres. Day II storm in 2003?? Soundings are clearly snow at 162 and snow or snow sleet mix at 168,,,downhill from there. QPF won't be as much as pd2. Plenty of time for this to slide north or south. My experience says lower levels cool and mid levels warm compared to model data. If I had this model data 24 hours to start, I'd run more like 3-6 for ROA to LYH, not the 8-10 being shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Good evening folks, long time reader, first time poster. Looks like we got an interesting little set up for later this week. Got CMC south of the area, GFS is in a pretty good location and Euro a bit warmer. As usual, typical model drama over the next few days to unfold. Either way all models show a pretty good high location, so we just need the right precipitation stream to hit the area. Put on your seat belts, at least we have something worth while to look at over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.