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11/13 - 11/16 Potential Storm Threat


user13

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Not only that, its a shame that with so many other problems and issues out there, some weather professionals think they should be the center of attention and to feed their own egos make it a priority that everyone should be worried about if its going to snow next week. When all is said and done, people like me still have to wake up in the morning and go to the office to make a living and not really care if its raining or snowing outside.  For every indifferent person like me there's also the sucker that falls into these weather hypesters' trap.

 

Uh . . . ok.

 

It's still a bit exciting to know that there is even the slightest chance of snow next week.

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Not only that, its a shame that with so many other problems and issues out there, some weather professionals think they should be the center of attention and to feed their own egos make it a priority that everyone should be worried about if its going to snow next week. When all is said and done, people like me still have to wake up in the morning to make a living and not really care if its raining or snowing outside.  For every indifferent person like me there's also the sucker that falls into these weather hypesters' trap.

 

Well, as Judge Smails once wisely noted, "the world needs ditch diggers too."

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Either the models bring it back or it's a lost cause. Give it a couple days I suppose, still a very potent cold shot, everybody goes below freezing, some well below all the way down south.

It's a lost cause. There's no real blocking over the Western Atlantic Ocean. So therefore, it will escape east and threaten NE Canada.

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Basically a perfect scenario this run for the coast

And the chances of this happening? You do see how volatile the situation is with regards to the various solutions. They are constantly changing and if there's a trend, the Euro will take this OTS by this time tomorrow night or Saturday 12Z.

WX/PT

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And the chances of this happening? You do see how volatile the situation is with regards to the various solutions. They are constantly changing and if there's a trend, the Euro will take this OTS by this time tomorrow night or Saturday 12Z.

WX/PT

Yea, ots is still a greater possibility but everything must still be on the table until within 80 hours, especially with recent history in mind.

- But having the Euro with the snow idea is a pretty good model to have in your corner if you like snow.

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And the chances of this happening? You do see how volatile the situation is with regards to the various solutions. They are constantly changing and if there's a trend, the Euro will take this OTS by this time tomorrow night or Saturday 12Z.

WX/PT

Anything can happen. The GFS and GGEM could trend towards the Euro or the Euro could trend towards them.

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The storm is still too far out to be worrying about specific modeling trends. We just have to keep an eye out on the Pacific ridge breaking, as well as how fast the flow is. The flow on this run slowed down a bit as the energy off the west coast retrograded a bit more thanks to the ridge wave breaking, allowing the ridge to not "tip over" as much. Thus, the cutoff low cut off a tad later than the 12z run, giving us a favorable scenario. 

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Anything can happen. The GFS and GGEM could trend towards the Euro or the Euro could trend towards them.

Huge difference from Boxing day. Back then there was an extremely negative NAO, very different now, with +NAO. I highly doubt GFS or GGEM will trend back this far. As I said earlier, I could see a scenario where we ended up the extreme nw edge of the precip, but if it goes amped, we're getting RAIN!...and if it doesn't, it's basically not much of anything....light snow/flurries, melting, etc.

WX/PT

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The storm is still too far out to be worrying about specific modeling trends. We just have to keep an eye out on the Pacific ridge breaking, as well as how fast the flow is. The flow on this run slowed down a bit as the energy off the west coast retrograded a bit more thanks to the ridge wave breaking, allowing the ridge to not "tip over" as much. Thus, the cutoff low cut off a tad later than the 12z run, giving us a favorable scenario. 

Love your stuff DSN

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Great write up thanks for sharing.

 

 

Great discussion.  Thank you for posting. 

 

 

That was great, thanks!

 

Thanks for the kind words, everyone! If one looks at tonight's Euro run closely, the wave in the Pacific broke a tad more efficiently, allowing more energy downstream of it to pinch off towards the south and especially west. This put a bit less "pressure" on the downstream ridge, preventing it from breaking like it did with the 12z run. 

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