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CT Rain

Second Half of October Wx Discussion?

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Easy Sam some sensitive peeps around here when it comes to Oct snow. STJ is impressive too.

 

 

Not that you or anyone asked, I think that's over-rated.  

 

If we look back at the pure linear statistics, over a couple hundred years, there's been both severe and mild winters post snow events in October.   I think Will even pointed that out recently.  

 

I don't have the numbers in front of me, but flat out remember that to be true, too -- granted my own experience is a smaller sample set.  Just sayin'.  It snowed in Winchester Ma in October of 2003 and then the season went on to be an awesome year.  Had the December 20"er and then the one later in February that broke the 1978, 24-hour snowfall record for Logan.   Then we had a snowy Halloween two years ago, and we all know what happened to that dead rat winter.

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FWIW, 12z EC day 10 is kind of what I'm talk about. Notice the ridge in the west folding over, with the strong vort max shoved southward (you can track it back to the arctic just 3 days earlier). The disturbance coming in under the ridge is off the coast of California. Obviously waaaay off from any interaction, but just showing the features at play here. If that southern s/w can sneak in (much) faster.. (Regardless, that is a nasty storm for the northern Plains ...)

 

post-128-0-47964100-1381694878_thumb.gif

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Not that you or anyone asked, I think that's over-rated.  

 

If we look back at the pure linear statistics, over a couple hundred years, there's been both severe and mild winters post snow events in October.   I think Will even pointed that out recently.  

 

I don't have the numbers in front of me, but flat out remember that to be true, too.  It snowed in Winchester Ma in October of 2003 and then the season went on to be an awesome year.  Had the December 20"er and then the one later in February that broke the 1978, 24-hour snowfall record for Logan.   Then we had a snowy Halloween two years ago, and we all know what happened to that dead rat winter.

Yu mean October 2002 john, Dec bomb was 2003 and February record was prior February.

Running the small sample of years of measurable October snow at BOS vs season that followed suggests we don't want it in the coast at least.

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LOL oh yeah I get that... the usual suspects are likely expecting flakes south of the Pike. 

 

:lol: nothing changes

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FWIW, 12z EC day 10 is kind of what I'm talk about. Notice the ridge in the west folding over, with the strong vort max shoved southward (you can track it back to the arctic just 3 days earlier). The disturbance coming in under the ridge is off the coast of California. Obviously waaaay off from any interaction, but just showing the features at play here. If that southern s/w can sneak in (much) faster.. (Regardless, that is a nasty storm for the northern Plains ...)

 

attachicon.giff240.gif

 

 

Yeah ... that ridge in the west is/has been inconsistently handled.  Understandable given to the time range, but I have also seen a few variations that have included severing that off with undercutting -PNA jet, with a more an -EPO ridge node over top.  

 

Overall, I am more confident for establishing a deep layer NW flow over the Canadian shield over which version promotes it.  In the end, I think we are slated for that and the season's first bona fide cold air intrustions into the NP/GL ...eventually upper OV /NE regions. 

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Sam I  noticed the day 7 and circa day 10 phenoms as well. I also noticed the GEFS having the tendency for a SW US trough (hey I thought that was a euro bias!) and the propensity to try and bomb something out as well. The day 7-8 thing might have legs for NNE?

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:lol:

 

There's chill lurking north... even in NNE but with the storm track running inland that doesn't look like a chilly pattern to me. Averageish. 

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Pretty cold feed coming down definitely not expecting snow but Sam is right it's interesting enough. I do remember the denials leading upto Roctober based on climo too though. Always best to keep an open mind.

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The ensembles do cool us off for a couple of days but then return flow comes around from the SW ahead of the strong trough digging into the Plains. Other than a brief cold shot, the coldest air will be west I think. Will likely turn milder again later next week before shot number 2 comes.

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The ensembles do cool us off for a couple of days but then return flow comes around from the SW ahead of the strong trough digging into the Plains. Other than a brief cold shot, the coldest air will be west I think. Will likely turn milder again later next week before shot number 2 comes.

Certainly the EC ensembles maintain the ridge over th west through d15 with trough over the lakes

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Powderfreak gets his first flakes on the 12z euro. Impressive cold shot next weekend, freeze chances also .

Sounds about right for the climo favorite time for first flakes...last year it was Oct 8 on the mountain and Oct 12 in town, but other years we wait till November for flakes. Late-Oct is about on schedule.

And it'll happen because I'll be out of town for a week starting next Saturday. I missed the last snow of the season last year on Memorial Day weekend, and might miss the first this year. Oh well, plenty of snowfall on the way this winter.

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Sam I noticed the day 7 and circa day 10 phenoms as well. I also noticed the GEFS having the tendency for a SW US trough (hey I thought that was a euro bias!) and the propensity to try and bomb something out as well. The day 7-8 thing might have legs for NNE?

Haha yeah what's up with the EC not having a huge cutoff over the southwest? I'm all confused now!

Day 7 is interesting because that's the initial surge of colder air, and there's a lot of vorticity in that trough. If you get some s/w to sharpen in it, ride up the front, something to watch. I'm watching further out day10+ when we have some cold*er* air already established.

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Haha yeah what's up with the EC not having a huge cutoff over the southwest? I'm all confused now!

Day 7 is interesting because that's the initial surge of colder air, and there's a lot of vorticity in that trough. If you get some s/w to sharpen in it, ride up the front, something to watch. I'm watching further out day10+ when we have some cold*er* air already established.

 

 

When in doubt, KU.

 

Yeah that feature also is there on some euro members it seems. One thing is for sure, the Pacific look is a beauty of we had that in winter, Good lord.

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Lol true, big differences over short distances this week has been the real story

Yep. Haven't seen a cloud in days up here. Absolutely stunning holiday weekend in town...traffic is horrific though. Canadian and US holiday weekend and fall travelers left the Mountain Rd a parking lot most of today.

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Yep. Haven't seen a cloud in days up here. Absolutely stunning holiday weekend in town...traffic is horrific though. Canadian and US holiday weekend and fall travelers left the Mountain Rd a parking lot most of today.

Still have any leaves for them to peep?

We are way past peak here with about 80% of our leaves down.

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Yep. Haven't seen a cloud in days up here. Absolutely stunning holiday weekend in town...traffic is horrific though. Canadian and US holiday weekend and fall travelers left the Mountain Rd a parking lot most of today.

 

I'm going to be in Stowe next weekend - hoping for some chilly weather at the summit of Mansfield for our hike. Last year we went swimming in Bingham Falls with 80s lol. 

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I'm going to be in Stowe next weekend - hoping for some chilly weather at the summit of Mansfield for our hike. Last year we went swimming in Bingham Falls with 80s lol.

I'll be out of town but hopefully the cold gets here in time...maybe flurries up there if it all breaks right. Maybe you'll see flakes before me, lol.

Great time to come up as long as you aren't expecting foliage. Town should be relatively empty as everyone is here this weekend.

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Wow, what an epic looking 18z GFS run....  Just one giant anomalous cold wave after another.  With resistant/persistent W. N/A ridge domination.   

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Wow, what an epic looking 18z GFS run....  Just one giant anomalous cold wave after another.  With resistant/persistent W. N/A ridge domination.   

Maybe I'll see my first flakes on top of Mansfield on Sunday.

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