EasternUSWX Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Euro blows up a 993 low off the coast. Models keep rapidly changing on this thing. Who knows what will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 What's it show precip wise Eastern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 What's it show precip wise Eastern? Waiting on that part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Drier than last run it looks like but, still no where near the GFS. GFS is all on it's own. IDK about the euro this run though bomb this thing to 972 southeast of Nova Scotia. At this point all I would say is looks wet over the southeast part of the state and could be very wet depending on exactly how this sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 HPC going non NCEP compromise. ...MID-LEVEL CYCLONE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST......POST-TROPICAL REMNANT OF KAREN......SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NEAR BERMUDA...PREFERENCE: 12Z ECMWF/12Z UKMET/12Z GEM GLOBAL COMPROMISECONFIDENCE: AVERAGEENERGY FROM THE BASE OF THE CURRENT SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVINGEAST ALONG THE GULF COAST IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE LEFT BEHIND INTHE WAKE OF THE EXITING NEG-TILTED TROUGH OVER THE LOWER GREATLAKES AND UPPER OH VLY REGION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LIFTPROGRESSIVELY INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE MODELS STRONGLY SUGGEST AMID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEWENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THESURFACE...THE POST-TROPICAL REMNANT OF KAREN WILL MOVE ACROSS THEFL PENINSULA TODAY AND EMERGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON TUESDAY.IT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THAT THE REMNANTS OF KARENWILL MERGE TO SOME DEGREE WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INITIALLYSOUTH AND THEN WEST OF BERMUDA BY LATER WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLYTHURSDAY. ALL THE WHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN STREAMENERGY SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST UP INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTALPLAIN. THE RESULT WILL BE AT LEAST A VERY BROAD AREA OF LOWPRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY BETWEEN EASTERN NCAND BERMUDA.MOST OF THE MODELS SUPPORT THIS IDEA BUT THERE ARE DIFFS INVOLVINGTHE LATITUDE AND INTENSITY OF THE MERGED LOW PRESSURE AREA. THE12Z NAM ATTAINS MORE LATITUDE THAN ANY OTHER MODEL WITH THESURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA. THE 12Z ECMWF REMAINS FARTHEST SOUTHAND APPEARS TO BE THE WEAKEST. THE 12Z UKMET AND 12Z GEM GLOBALSPLIT THE DIFF LATITUDINALLY...BUT HAVE TRENDED FARTHER WEST ANDTUCK THEIR SURFACE LOWS MUCH CLOSER INTO THE OUTER BANKS OF NC ONTHURSDAY. THE UKMET...GEM GLOBAL AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE ECMWFHAVE TRENDED STRONGER. THE 12Z GFS IS A LITTLE NORTHEAST OF THEUKMET/GEM GLOBAL CLUSTER...BUT AT VARIOUS TIMESTAMPS APPEARS TO BESUFFERING FROM SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. THERE ARE A NUMBER OF 12ZGEFS MEMBERS SUPPORTING THE UKMET/GEM GLOBAL CAMP ALONG WITH THEDETERMINISTIC GFS. THE 00Z ECENS MEAN STILL SUPPORTS THEDETERMINISTIC ECMWF. WILL LEAN TWD A NON-NCEP CONSENSUS ATTMACCOUNTING FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Hoping it trends west and wetter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 UNV isn't even showing a chance of rain for the rest of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 UNV isn't even showing a chance of rain for the rest of the week. Rapid City, SD office wasn't even predicting snow till like 2-3 days out. They'll come around. I think the SC SE areas stand the best chance. NAM getting back on track. With the H5 look it is going to get interesting for someone. This is a pretty strange setup that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 Well who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 What's EURO showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 What's EURO showing? Based on the NYC forum, torrential rain back through my area (up to 5" over several days) and mod-heavy rain even back to central PA. As I'm looking forward to tailgating this weekend, it's the solution I really don't want. Therefore, count on it occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 Well that would be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 Is there suppose to be a meteor shower tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 8, 2013 Author Share Posted October 8, 2013 At this range, I believe people are over analyzing the specifics of the American and foreign computer model guidance too seriously. We can infer with a greater than 70% certainty that a prolonged period of unsettled weather will occur starting tomorrow. This event has the potential to produce flooding rains over southern and eastern portions of Pennsylvania, as most model guidance is pegging areas along and east of a line from I-99 to Route 22 to I-81. Don't focus of the bulls-eye for QPF, you'll just make yourself sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 GFS still wants to leave most of PA dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Based on the NYC forum, torrential rain back through my area (up to 5" over several days) and mod-heavy rain even back to central PA. As I'm looking forward to tailgating this weekend, it's the solution I really don't want. Therefore, count on it occurring. I want it to go away by late Friday, which of course won't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 GFS still wants to leave most of PA dry. Probably smoking crack cause it is only model doing so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Well now the NAM has gone back to suppressed. Aye... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 CMC looks exactly like Euro. Also if this was winter this would be a sexy site. Captured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Here is my forecast on this system. http://www.hwpcwx.org/#!story2/cabe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 12z NAM south again...lol at these models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 This thing wants to stay south...looking like it will too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 12z GFS finally looking a bit more like the Euro and sends modest precip into a good portion of PA. And actually, it has a pretty significant slug of rain running up into south central PA. 12z Euro fairly similar to the 0z run. The next couple days definitely look unsettled and dreary overall for most, but we shall see where the heaviest rainfall sets up... as this system has the potential to deliver significant enough rainfall to make meaningful progress towards relieving the short term drought we've been in the last month or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 12z NAM south again...lol at these models Nam and Gfs.. who cares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Down here at Dewey, pretty good wind and rain at the moment, say the gusts are about 30-35. Our hotel is right near the beach and I can see the ocean and it's got some whitecaps, for sure. I understand that our area isn't as prone to coastal flooding (a few blocks up actually is) so that's a good thing. Kind of bummed that we can't take our greyhounds out to the beach but hopefully the storm will move out Friday so we have the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 QPF bullseye in Long Island, C PA with maybe 0.10" on the 0z NAM. Sound familiar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 Down here at Dewey, pretty good wind and rain at the moment, say the gusts are about 30-35. Our hotel is right near the beach and I can see the ocean and it's got some whitecaps, for sure. I understand that our area isn't as prone to coastal flooding (a few blocks up actually is) so that's a good thing. Kind of bummed that we can't take our greyhounds out to the beach but hopefully the storm will move out Friday so we have the weekend. i hope you get some beach time with the dogs... not far from where you are, there is a place called Nicks House of Ribs, i highly recomend it. It doesn't matter what you get, Steak, Ribs or Crab Cakes, its awesome.. Have fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 i hope you get some beach time with the dogs... not far from where you are, there is a place called Nicks House of Ribs, i highly recomend it. It doesn't matter what you get, Steak, Ribs or Crab Cakes, its awesome.. Have fun! This! Nick's is a MUST every time I'm down at the shore. Great ribs and service is quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 1.82" so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Definitely felt like fall today with low 50s and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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