weatherwiz Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 It looked like the LLJ tickled east a bit. Being just west of the actual LLJ streak is actually a good thing I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 Being just west of the actual LLJ streak is actually a good thing I believe. Well you need the LLJ for shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 Heavy, heavy rain. .71" in the bucket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 Well you need the LLJ for shear. BTW the SPC WRF comes in like an hour faster now... seems like they must have moved to to a faster computer or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 Would someone who is going to be around and checking things often during the day be able to shoot me any texts with any latest developments? I may not be able to respond b/c they have very strict cell phone policies here but I can sneak and take a look at my phone every now and then.Send me a DM on here or Twitter for my #. I'll closely be monitoring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 Well you need the LLJ for shear. Yeah but if you have LLJ winds of 30-35 knots over you but the core (streak) of like 40 knots is just east that isn't necessarily a bad thing. I swear I've read somewhere that being just west of the axis of the LLJ is good...as long as the winds over that area are still sufficient...although I could be mistaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 Send me a DM on here or Twitter for my #. I'll closely be monitoring. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 Socked in with heavy rain ongoing and upstream looks no better. Saturated atmosphere with not a hint of CIN and that much llv helicity is a recipe for this. Perhaps we can clear out this afternoon and have another go but I have to think it's going to be very hard to recover any meaningful instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 Socked in with heavy rain ongoing and upstream looks no better. Saturated atmosphere with not a hint of CIN and that much llv helicity is a recipe for this. Perhaps we can clear out this afternoon and have another go but I have to think it's going to be very hard to recover any meaningful instability. Yeah radar does not look good. Lots of +RA I guess lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 SPC not impressed with their 13z update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 12z Upton Sounding...LLJ max of 31kt ~950mb. Hodograph: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 OKX sounding is a bit more unstable than I would have expected. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/13080912_OBS/OKX.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 Bigger story may be the sultan signal today from BDL to ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 Bigger story may be the sultan signal today from BDL to ORH. Yeah that area may get smoked with +RA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 Bigger story may be the sultan signal today from BDL to ORH.WV doesn't look very good for hopes of clearing, although SE of 84 may see a few quick breaks. Moisture filling in, not the opposite that you'd hope for to ramp up the severe potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 Bigger story may be the sultan signal today from BDL to ORH. Up to 1.13" here. 68.1/68 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 WV doesn't look very good for hopes of clearing, although SE of 84 may see a few quick breaks. Moisture filling in, not the opposite that you'd hope for to ramp up the severe potential. TBH I really didn't expect any sun today so that's not a huge surprise. We'll see what happen... I still think there's severe/tornado potential especially after seeing that 12z OKX sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 TBH I really didn't expect any sun today so that's not a huge surprise. We'll see what happen... I still think there's severe/tornado potential especially after seeing that 12z OKX sounding. Models had some good MU CAPE there so makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 Models had some good MU CAPE there so makes sense. Yeah - it has enough sb CAPE for some decent action if convective mode is right - maybe a severe threat NYC metro to Long Island and coastal CT south of the main slug of rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 Yeah - it has enough sb CAPE for some decent action if convective mode is right - maybe a severe threat NYC metro to Long Island and coastal CT south of the main slug of rain? Yeah this prolonged rain isn't helping areas further north...a concern that is real right now. I wonder if those cells in SE NY state are ones to watch as they head into CT and more unstable air across srn CT gets advected into it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 Yeah this prolonged rain isn't helping areas further north...a concern that is real right now. I wonder if those cells in SE NY state are ones to watch as they head into CT and more unstable air across srn CT gets advected into it?Latest HRRR seems to favor the 84 corridor in the western half of CT by midday for some stronger storms. We'll see. It's too bad the best kinematic support is displaced further north where it's just a solid slug of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 Quite breezy here, just on the edge of the heavy rain. Agree, that the severe talk today maybe hydro related and not so much storm related. Now casting event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 You guys are going to cause Wiz to have yet another meltdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 Rain has ended here...not much fell since we were on the southern edge of it-some brightening of the sky--SW of here looks to have some breaks of sun that may move in? 74/72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 Latest HRRR seems to favor the 84 corridor in the western half of CT by midday for some stronger storms. We'll see. It's too bad the best kinematic support is displaced further north where it's just a solid slug of rain. This actually is pretty common. If you think about it physically... where you have the best low level shear or "turning" you have the strongest warm air advection and lift. So you're favoring synoptic scale lift where helicity is the highest in many cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 Quite the dousing taking place up here. 1.31" with radar showing a lot let to come down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 This actually is pretty common. If you think about it physically... where you have the best low level shear or "turning" you have the strongest warm air advection and lift. So you're favoring synoptic scale lift where helicity is the highest in many cases.This makes sense. It's a reason why with this type setup, it's much more common to see low CAPE/high shear, or in the case further south, elevated CAPE/lower shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 12z RAP likes LI, southern CT by 2-4 p.m., although probably overestimating instability. HRRR is similar with the time frame, but says eastern CT has more issues destabilizing. Maybe the area to watch is eastern PA/NJ and see how that advects northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 Here in AUG it's been mod-hvy RA since just before 7 AM, and Doppler estimate is in the 1.5" to 2" range, with some 2"+ pixels in the area (and under 1/2" IMBY, which is just fine with me.) More bright echoes upstream, then the forecast includes a 2nd +RA episode this aft as the CF approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 Here in AUG it's been mod-hvy RA since just before 7 AM, and Doppler estimate is in the 1.5" to 2" range, with some 2"+ pixels in the area (and under 1/2" IMBY, which is just fine with me.) More bright echoes upstream, then the forecast includes a 2nd +RA episode this aft as the CF approaches. Nice! Much more than here. 68.4/68, with 1.37" in the bucket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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