Winter 2013-14 Discussion

[IWXwx]

NOAA released their winter outlook today with an equal chance on both precip and temps for the entire subforum. No surprise with no strong ENSO signal. More realistic than some of the lolmaps posted.

 

[wxman1952]

Expecting to see something like this sometime this winter. 

 

 

for me I'd prefer the low to track to Toledo which would give heavy snow to me. hehe

[Minnesota Meso]

IMO this is the best winter forecast from this board for this sub forum, I think it has the best chance of verifying.

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41743-my-winter-outlook-2013-14/#entry2483551

[TugHillMatt]

By looking at the NOAA's winter outlook (as vague as it may be), it would appear there is a good chance of us sitting on a baroclinic zone...meaning we will be where the northern and southern jet streams meet. This would be a great track for us, with "Alberta Clippers" and "Manitoba Maulers" diving down from the north and meeting up with moisture from the southern jet stream.

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2013/images/Outlook_map_temp2013F.jpg
 

[Hoosier]

I think the easiest way to sum things up given the expected state of various indices is that we're likely in trouble if we lose the -EPO. 

[Geos]

I think the easiest way to sum things up given the expected state of various indices is that we're likely in trouble if we lose the -EPO. 

 

Yeah I think that is critical as well. Warmer waters in the NE Pacific should keep it negative through the winter. Basically we have the opposite conditions of late 2011.

[michsnowfreak]

DonS is now leaning towards a colder December in the winter thread on the main forum.

[Jonger]

I think the easiest way to sum things up given the expected state of various indices is that we're likely in trouble if we lose the -EPO. 

Yea, but the longer we can maintain it, the better chance the AO becomes more favorable. I can't imagine it being positive the whole winter.

[IWXwx]

I doubt any suppression is coming anytime soon. Very flippy pattern...........just like we like it eh?

 

• Tonight Partly cloudy, with a low around 24. West wind 5 to 10 mph.
• Saturday A 20 percent chance of snow showers after 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 31. Northwest wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
• Saturday Night A 30 percent chance of snow showers, mainly before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17. Northwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
• Sunday A 20 percent chance of snow showers before 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 26. Northwest wind 10 to 15 mph.
• Sunday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 19. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph.
• Monday Partly sunny, with a high near 35.
• Monday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28.
• Tuesday Partly sunny, with a high near 37.
• Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 23.
• Wednesday Partly sunny, with a high near 31.
• Wednesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 21.
• Thanksgiving Day Mostly sunny, with a high near 31.
• Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 22.
• Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 36.

[wisconsinwx]

Angrysummons comes with an amplified, warm bias.

[Jonger]

Angrysummons comes with an amplified, warm bias.

 

He is a warm weather fan.

[DAFF]

This pattern reminds me of going to Florida for some warmth and sun and getting a week of cold and rain.

[Harry]

I think the easiest way to sum things up given the expected state of various indices is that we're likely in trouble if we lose the -EPO. 

 

There is a bit of history that suggests it does come back especially if you remove the stronger enso and -QBO years and thus years like this with a weak/neutral enso signal and +QBO.. 66-67 is one such winter but ala it did not return till March and as a few know we torched big time before th blizzard hit in Jan.. 77-78/78-79 are other examples but most know the outcome of those two winters. 78-79 appears to be the best match in terms of this, the very +AO in Nov, neutral enso.. Seriously doubt we get THAT cold but yeah for now it looks to be the leading analog. 66-67 had a +AO in Nov as well ( and everything else ) but not as + as this one has been.. 77-78 was a weak nino and thus caution is advised.

[andyhb]

Expecting to see something like this sometime this winter. 

 

Blizzard with 100 mph winds?

[Harry]

lol, this post represents the board in context. This coming week is already looking to waste a piece of STJ energy because of weak forcing. 

 

Winters like 66-67 and 78-79 had notable Atlantic or/and Arctic forcing and this winter appears it will have none of that. 2ndly, they followed El Nino's and had strong STJ lag. This winter will need to hit the bullseye at times, besides lake, front squalls.

 

Dude you need to just take a break as it is clear the whole subject matter is over your head. lol at that

[michsnowfreak]

Dude you need to just take a break as it is clear the whole subject matter is over your head. lol at that

[Stebo]

Angrysummons comes with an amplified, warm bias.

I don't know why anyone takes any of his posts seriously, he might be the biggest wet blanket around here.

[Gilbertfly]

This is from LOT's AFD today....I haven't really heard much about this particular obs before in the past....Anyone with more knowledge care to elaborate a little more for me on this....thanks!

 

 

WITH THIS BEING A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH HAVING A NOTEWORTHY
STRATOSPHERIC INTRUSION SEEN ON UPSTREAM CANADIAN UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS LAST EVE...A FURTHERING STRENGTHENING OF THE VORT AND
OVERALL LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BE SEEN THROUGH TODAY.

[hm8]

DTX winter outlook

 

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=dtx&storyid=98428&source=0

[Jonger]

DTX winter outlook

 

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=dtx&storyid=98428&source=0

 

 

Clippers, clippers and more clippers...

 

I dig it.

 

These winters usually have a persistent snow-cover and lots of lake effect for our lake belt areas.

[michsnowfreak]

Clippers, clippers and more clippers...

 

I dig it.

 

These winters usually have a persistent snow-cover and lots of lake effect for our lake belt areas.

Its crazy to read all the different outlooks, the ones with sound reasoning at least lol, and yet you have SO many different scenarios. And all make sense, but all cant be right. For instance, DTX pegs the mildest winter month relative to average as being January. Ive heard many others peg that as the coldest. Just goes to show you how the weather is so unpredictable, and always will be.

[Jonger]

Clippers, clippers and more clippers...

 

I dig it.

 

These winters usually have a persistent snow-cover and lots of lake effect for our lake belt areas.

Its crazy to read all the different outlooks, the ones with sound reasoning at least lol, and yet you have SO many different scenarios. And all make sense, but all cant be right. For instance, DTX pegs the mildest winter month relative to average as being January. Ive heard many others peg that as the coldest. Just goes to show you how the weather is so unpredictable, and always will be.

Many forecasts are based heavily on what the current pattern is, we are headed info a quasi zonal flow, the flow is from the NW though.

[michsnowfreak]

A correlation with cold+snow for the winter in Detroit? As with all things weather, there was something for everyone, but the consensus is the colder the better.

 

For Detroit.......

 

Of the top 20 coldest winters on record, the average snowfall was 49.7", which is about 9" above the longterm average. The average 1"+ snowcover days was 75, which is 27 days above average! (There were a few years on the list that occurred before snowfall records were kept). The snowiest winter in the top 20 coldest was good old 1880-81 with its 93.6", (this winter ranks 12th coldest). The least snowy winter in the top 20 coldest was 1962-63 with 29.7" (this winter ranks 5th coldest).

 

Of the top 20 warmest winters on record, the average snowfall was 28.7", which is about 12" below the longterm average. The average 1"+ snowcover days was 30, which is 18 days below the longterm average. (once again, a few years on the list occurred before snowfall records were kept). The snowiest winter in the top 20 warmest was a tie between 2012-13 (18th warmest) and 1959-60 (20th warmest) when both winters saw 47.7" of snow. The least snowy winter in the top 20 warmest was 1881-82 with 13.2", which is the all-time #1 warmest winter on record.

 

Of the top 20 snowiest winters on record, 15 had temperatures that were colder than the 1880-2001 normal. The warmest winter in the top 20 snowiest list was 1951-52 (17th snowiest winter on record), the average temp +2.4F above the 1880-2001 normal (58.6" of snow fell).

 

Of the top 20 least snowy winters on record, 17 had temperatures that were warmer than the 1880-2001 normal. The coldest winter in the top 20 least snowy list was a tie between 1960-61 and 1945-46 where the average temp was 0.3F below the 1880-2001 normal. 1960-61 ranks 9th least snowy (18.0") and 1945-46 ranks 12th least snowy (22.0").

 

So the bottom line...while there are exceptions to every single rule in the weather, and my above data shows that every case had them, the general rule of thumb is that overall, colder winters tend to be snowier, despite our northern latitude and the common misconception that cold means suppressed. It probably didnt help that one of the exceptions to this rule is still fresh in our memory, when 2007-08 ended up being Detroits 4th snowiest winter on record (71.7") despite temps running 1.2F above the longterm average. While there certainly are periods most winters where we do indeed see cold causing a suppressed storm track, when you sum everything up at the end of the winter, if we are rolling the dice, we want colder than normal temperatures to give us heavy snowfall.

 

I should note that the margin of error above is the fact that I only looked at the top 20 coldest and warmest winters, and the top 20 snowiest and least snowy winters. This doesnt account for all of those milder or colder than normal winters, or the snowier or less snowy than normal winters that werent extreme in any case. That would take quite a bit of time to research.

[Minnesota Meso]

A correlation with cold+snow for the winter in Detroit? As with all things weather, there was something for everyone, but the consensus is the colder the better.

 

For Detroit.......

 

Of the top 20 coldest winters on record, the average snowfall was 49.7", which is about 9" above the longterm average. The average 1"+ snowcover days was 75, which is 27 days above average! (There were a few years on the list that occurred before snowfall records were kept). The snowiest winter in the top 20 coldest was good old 1880-81 with its 93.6", (this winter ranks 12th coldest). The least snowy winter in the top 20 coldest was 1962-63 with 29.7" (this winter ranks 5th coldest).

 

Of the top 20 warmest winters on record, the average snowfall was 28.7", which is about 12" below the longterm average. The average 1"+ snowcover days was 30, which is 18 days below the longterm average. (once again, a few years on the list occurred before snowfall records were kept). The snowiest winter in the top 20 warmest was a tie between 2012-13 (18th warmest) and 1959-60 (20th warmest) when both winters saw 47.7" of snow. The least snowy winter in the top 20 warmest was 1881-82 with 13.2", which is the all-time #1 warmest winter on record.

 

Of the top 20 snowiest winters on record, 15 had temperatures that were colder than the 1880-2001 normal. The warmest winter in the top 20 snowiest list was 1951-52 (17th snowiest winter on record), the average temp +2.4F above the 1880-2001 normal (58.6" of snow fell).

 

Of the top 20 least snowy winters on record, 17 had temperatures that were warmer than the 1880-2001 normal. The coldest winter in the top 20 least snowy list was a tie between 1960-61 and 1945-46 where the average temp was 0.3F below the 1880-2001 normal. 1960-61 ranks 9th least snowy (18.0") and 1945-46 ranks 12th least snowy (22.0").

 

So the bottom line...while there are exceptions to every single rule in the weather, and my above data shows that every case had them, the general rule of thumb is that overall, colder winters tend to be snowier, despite our northern latitude and the common misconception that cold means suppressed. It probably didnt help that one of the exceptions to this rule is still fresh in our memory, when 2007-08 ended up being Detroits 4th snowiest winter on record (71.7") despite temps running 1.2F above the longterm average. While there certainly are periods most winters where we do indeed see cold causing a suppressed storm track, when you sum everything up at the end of the winter, if we are rolling the dice, we want colder than normal temperatures to give us heavy snowfall.

 

I should note that the margin of error above is the fact that I only looked at the top 20 coldest and warmest winters, and the top 20 snowiest and least snowy winters. This doesnt account for all of those milder or colder than normal winters, or the snowier or less snowy than normal winters that werent extreme in any case. That would take quite a bit of time to research.

 

Great post, but I have a question for you.  How many of the top 5 coldest winters also show above normal snowfall?  Just trying to get an idea of where the baroclinic zone is in respect to Detroit, me thinks this could be a very cold winter, even with respect to the long term average let alone the last 30yr average

[DAFF]

60-61 @18" makes me cringe. To think we would have 17" remaining on the winter at this point of time. I could see the snow wienies chucking their lap tops across the room and the complaint thread would be reinstated at leas 5 times over the winter.

 

As a whole the findings make sense and encouraging to say the least. Winter is taking a brief break this week and then perhaps hit us with a first 2"+ accumulation.

[DAFF]

Would it be safe to say during an artic outbreak the sweet spot for the baroclinic zone would technically pass twice overhead. Thus a higher likely hood of snowy precip. during each of the cold spells, boosting snow amounts for the season.

[michsnowfreak]

Great post, but I have a question for you.  How many of the top 5 coldest winters also show above normal snowfall?  Just trying to get an idea of where the baroclinic zone is in respect to Detroit, me thinks this could be a very cold winter, even with respect to the long term average let alone the last 30yr average

Top 5 coldest winters and corresponding snowfall: The 1880-2000 average winter temp was 26.7F and snowfall 40.0". The 1981-2010 averages per NCDC were winter temp was 27.9F and snowfall 42.7". NOWData has 1981-2010 avg DJF temp at 27.7F, snowfall 44.1", an 1"+ snowcover days at 47.

 

#1) 1903-04 (18.8F) - 57.0" of snow fell, with an estimated 90+ days of 1"+ snowcover (I have some M data for this winter, snowcover wise, so thats why its est). Winters peak snow depth was 15", and the biggest snowstorm was 8.5" on Mar 14th. This winter holds the record for most consecutive days (81) of 1"+ snowcover at Detroit, which was from Dec 12-Mar 1.

 

#2) 1874-75 (19.3F) – 57.0” fell this winter, per estimates of the NWS. Winters biggest snowstorm was 14.0" on Feb 28/Mar 1. Snowcover data was not kept at all but I assume it was a lot and deep. (Official snowfall records didnt start until 1880, and by that I mean they started keeping track in the early 1870s when they began weather records, but there was missing data so the NWS left the snowfall off the page until complete data began in 1880). This winter was absolutely brutal with some of its cold blasts, temps down to -20F at Detroit and many other days colder than -15F.

 

#3) 1917-18 (19.7F) – 38.4” of snow fell, so a bit BELOW normal. Snowcover days were well above normal at 65, but interestingly, this does not even make the top 20 list for most 1"+ snowcover days, so its safe to assume we had to deal with some uncomfortable cold shots with 0 or a T of snow on the ground. Winters peak snow depth was 10", and although the biggest storm was only 5.0" on Jan 11/12, this was a brutal midwest blizzard with ferocious winds and temps plummeting to 0F and below. Just south of here, the Toledo Blade dubbed it one of the fiercest blizzards in memory for NW Ohio.

 

#4) 1976-77 (19.7F) – 43.9” of snow fell, just a tick above normal, and 67 days featured 1"+ snowcover. So once again, plenty of snowcover but also some bare periods despite the frigid air. Winters peak snow depth was 9", and the biggest storm was 8.3" on Mar 17/18, which was actually after winters grip had thawed out, but a very interesting item of note was the Jan 28th blizzard. Only 2.5" of new snow fell (there was 6" of old snowpack) but winds blew 50-60mph all day with temps falling from the low teens to -7F, creating whiteouts and life threatening wind chills. This event falls under the radar because of the unimpressive snowfall amount, but I imagine living it was about as brutal as it gets in these parts.

 

#5) 1962-63 (20.4F) - Just 29.7" of snow fell during this cold winter, but 81 days had 1"+ snowcover. Winters biggest snowstorm was just 4.7" on Dec 6/7, which would lay down a snowcover that would last the next few months (note: DTW actually had 7.6" from this storm, but would not become the official obs site until 1966, at this time records were still DET, and this storm hit the southern burbs (DTW) harder). Winters peak depth was just 6", though on several days, and snowfall was light and also dry, but frequent, so I imagine it was a scenic, tundra like winter.

[michsnowfreak]

60-61 @18" makes me cringe. To think we would have 17" remaining on the winter at this point of time. I could see the snow wienies chucking their lap tops across the room and the complaint thread would be reinstated at leas 5 times over the winter.

 

As a whole the findings make sense and encouraging to say the least. Winter is taking a brief break this week and then perhaps hit us with a first 2"+ accumulation.

What would make it worse is that this was an epic east coast winter. Here...winters biggest storm was 3.0", and that was April 16/17, and April saw 4.7" of the 18.0"!!! There was a 2.9" storm in Dec and in Feb as well, but still. The peak depth that winter was just 3", though we somehow managed a White Christmas as well as 35 days of 1"+ snowcover. Since the time of weather boards, this region has not known true snow-hole. Not at all. Even the terrible winters saw more snow than they should have. I just hope we never have to see a winter like this again!

[Minnesota Meso]

 

Top 5 coldest winters and corresponding snowfall: The 1880-2000 average winter temp was 26.7F and snowfall 40.0". The 1981-2010 averages per NCDC were winter temp was 27.9F and snowfall 42.7". NOWData has 1981-2010 avg DJF temp at 27.7F, snowfall 44.1", an 1"+ snowcover days at 47.

 

#1) 1903-04 (18.8F) - 57.0" of snow fell, with an estimated 90+ days of 1"+ snowcover (I have some M data for this winter, snowcover wise, so thats why its est). Winters peak snow depth was 15", and the biggest snowstorm was 8.5" on Mar 14th. This winter holds the record for most consecutive days (81) of 1"+ snowcover at Detroit, which was from Dec 12-Mar 1.

 

#2) 1874-75 (19.3F) – 57.0” fell this winter, per estimates of the NWS. Winters biggest snowstorm was 14.0" on Feb 28/Mar 1. Snowcover data was not kept at all but I assume it was a lot and deep. (Official snowfall records didnt start until 1880, and by that I mean they started keeping track in the early 1870s when they began weather records, but there was missing data so the NWS left the snowfall off the page until complete data began in 1880). This winter was absolutely brutal with some of its cold blasts, temps down to -20F at Detroit and many other days colder than -15F.

 

#3) 1917-18 (19.7F) – 38.4” of snow fell, so a bit BELOW normal. Snowcover days were well above normal at 65, but interestingly, this does not even make the top 20 list for most 1"+ snowcover days, so its safe to assume we had to deal with some uncomfortable cold shots with 0 or a T of snow on the ground. Winters peak snow depth was 10", and although the biggest storm was only 5.0" on Jan 11/12, this was a brutal midwest blizzard with ferocious winds and temps plummeting to 0F and below. Just south of here, the Toledo Blade dubbed it one of the fiercest blizzards in memory for NW Ohio.

 

#4) 1976-77 (19.7F) – 43.9” of snow fell, just a tick above normal, and 67 days featured 1"+ snowcover. So once again, plenty of snowcover but also some bare periods despite the frigid air. Winters peak snow depth was 9", and the biggest storm was 8.3" on Mar 17/18, which was actually after winters grip had thawed out, but a very interesting item of note was the Jan 28th blizzard. Only 2.5" of new snow fell (there was 6" of old snowpack) but winds blew 50-60mph all day with temps falling from the low teens to -7F, creating whiteouts and life threatening wind chills. This event falls under the radar because of the unimpressive snowfall amount, but I imagine living it was about as brutal as it gets in these parts.

 

#5) 1962-63 (20.4F) - Just 29.7" of snow fell during this cold winter, but 81 days had 1"+ snowcover. Winters biggest snowstorm was just 4.7" on Dec 6/7, which would lay down a snowcover that would last the next few months (note: DTW actually had 7.6" from this storm, but would not become the official obs site until 1966, at this time records were still DET, and this storm hit the southern burbs (DTW) harder). Winters peak depth was just 6", though on several days, and snowfall was light and also dry, but frequent, so I imagine it was a scenic, tundra like winter.

 

 

Ok that doesn't help much, but like I expected the top 5 coldest years were prior to 1980.  Now how did the 5 coldest years from 1980-2010 compare with snowfall amounts.  I will take your coldest years prior to 1980 and post 1980 and compare them to here, it may take me till tomorrow to get the figures, but with you being further south than me it could be interesting.

[Jonger]

60-61 @18" makes me cringe. To think we would have 17" remaining on the winter at this point of time. I could see the snow wienies chucking their lap tops across the room and the complaint thread would be reinstated at leas 5 times over the winter.

 

As a whole the findings make sense and encouraging to say the least. Winter is taking a brief break this week and then perhaps hit us with a first 2"+ accumulation.

I will have to look up the dates, but I think Detroit once had 2 straight sub 20 inch winters in a row. Gramps never mentioned that as a kid.