bluewave Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 July is a tough month for decent Caribbean development with the exceptional 2005 being the only recent standout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 UK Met and Canadian still give us weenies reason to hope... GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 09.07.2013 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL ANALYSED POSITION : 14.1N 60.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL032013 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- --------12UTC 09.07.2013 14.1N 60.0W MODERATE00UTC 10.07.2013 15.7N 64.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY12UTC 10.07.2013 17.1N 69.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE00UTC 11.07.2013 18.9N 73.7W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY12UTC 11.07.2013 21.3N 76.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE00UTC 12.07.2013 22.3N 78.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE12UTC 12.07.2013 25.0N 79.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY00UTC 13.07.2013 26.3N 79.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY12UTC 13.07.2013 28.0N 79.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY00UTC 14.07.2013 29.6N 79.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE12UTC 14.07.2013 31.0N 80.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE00UTC 15.07.2013 32.2N 80.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY12UTC 15.07.2013 32.8N 81.8W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 A little update on Chantal...trying to get back in the hang of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 Chantal looks very linear-ish today and arc clouds are prevalent on its western semicircle. Low-level flow is funneled and accelerated between the two major sets of land masses in the eastern Caribbean, and the effects (decreased low-level convergence, but acceleration of background low-level flow and associated uptick in FL winds) are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 Convergence looks good to me. Much better than previous days, that's for sure. A majority of the models shifted far west in the 18z run. Maybe Chantal doesn't pass over nearly as much of the island of Hispaniola as originally anticipated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 Other than the simple models that run off 12Z GFS initialization, I don't *think* any 18Z model of note (excluding the NAM) has started outputting yet. HWRF and its 2013 parallel are predicting death, but still have CMC, UK Met and GFDL holding hope for some kind of Carolina landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 Other than the simple models that run off 12Z GFS initialization, I don't *think* any 18Z model of note (excluding the NAM) has started yet. HWRF and its 2013 parallel are predicting death, but still have CMC, UK Met and GFDL holding hope for some kind of Carolina landfall. Yeah, I was referring solely about the 18z statistical/dynamical model runs (take that for whatever its worth, lol). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 Chantal looks very linear-ish today and arc clouds are prevalent on its western semicircle. Low-level flow is funneled and accelerated between the two major sets of land masses in the eastern Caribbean, and the effects (decreased low-level convergence, but acceleration of background low-level flow and associated uptick in FL winds) are showing. The next couple of microwave passes will be telling + the next recon mission. Its very hard to discern if the llc is still intact, and it could have collapsed over the past few hours as the outflow boundaries became established to the west of the circulation center. Overall the current satellite apparence is very strange, more reminiscent of an open wave. Despite the robustness of the circulation this morning, it was fairly small and something minor like a redistribution of convection could have disrupted this... especially given the forward speed of the vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 5pm NHC track would have landfall headed toward SC unless they turn it to the W later on in their forecasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 18 hour radar/satellite loop with the forecast track and models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 Not looking good... we'll see if recon finds anything tonight. Edit: Not looking good so far... recon finding substantially weaker winds in the strongest quadrant (Only 35-40 knot SMFR in the NE quadrant and thus far the pressure is at 1015 hPa. Still probably a couple more packets until the "center" is intercepted, but its not looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 Going by recon this is a wave not a tropical storm but with it starting to ever so slightly slow down it could reform a center later tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 Going by recon this is a wave not a tropical storm but with it starting to ever so slightly slow down it could reform a center later tonight No west winds so far... but this was an interesting RECCO message. RADAR FIX PSBL CENTER 14.9N 65.25W. POOR RADAR PRESENTATION, MET ACCURACY 10NM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 65mph at 8pm to open wave at 11pm? That maybe a record if it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 nice flare up of storms over the center of chantal tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 Looks horrible, but a bit less horrible than earlier this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 No fresh VDM as of a few minutes ago. I haven't seen every HDOB, but maybe they haven't been able to close it. The ensemble perturbation displayed in purple looks interesting, if unlikely... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 Looks horrible, but a bit less horrible than earlier this evening. Lolz!!1! Looks like Cat-5 crap. Stop being so charitable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 NHC will probably hang on to it for one more advisory, but each recon pass has looked worse and worse. Instead of finding westerly winds they are just finding the shear axis becoming less and less defined. This one is dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 Recon heading home. 50kt/1009mb with the advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 NHC will probably hang on to it for one more advisory, but each recon pass has looked worse and worse. Instead of finding westerly winds they are just finding the shear axis becoming less and less defined. This one is dead. I have to guess that they guessed at a center for the 11 pm adv... and kept winds a 60 mph... they even kept the HW up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 Airspace restrictions? TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL0320131100 PM AST TUE JUL 09 2013THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF CHANTAL BECAME LESS ORGANIZED DURINGTHE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT THERE HAS BEEN A BURSTOF DEEP CONVECTION RECENTLY NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER. THE PLANEHAS HAD DIFFICULTY FIXING A CENTER...WITH THE WIND FIELD RESEMBLINGAN OPEN WAVE RATHER THAN A CLOSED CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...AIR SPACERESTRICTIONS PREVENTED THE PLANE FROM SAMPLING THE AREA FARTHERSOUTH...SO IT IS INCONCLUSIVE AS TO WHETHER A CLOSED CIRCULATIONSTILL EXISTS. AIRCRAFT DATA ALSO SUGGEST THAT SOME WEAKENING HASTAKEN PLACE...WITH PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL AND BIAS-CORRECTED SFMRWINDS OF 50 AND 42 KT...RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ISLOWERED TO 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...WHICH COULD BE GENEROUS.THE RAPID FORWARD MOTION OF CHANTAL COULD SUGGEST THAT WESTERLY LOW-TO MID-LEVEL SHEAR IS AFFECTING THE CYCLONE...AS SHOWN BY SHIPS ANDUW-CIMSS ANALYSES. THE SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT ANY ADDITIONALINTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO THE CENTER MOVING OVER OR NEAR HISPANIOLA. INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF THAT ISLAND SHOULDDISRUPT THE CIRCULATION ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OREVEN POSSIBLY DISSIPATION. WHATEVER REMAINS OF CHANTAL AFTER THATWILL ENCOUNTER HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH AMID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERNATLANTIC IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE GFS SUGGESTS A DECOUPLING OF THELOW- TO MID-LEVEL CENTERS...WHILE ECMWF MAINTAINS MORE VERTICALINTEGRITY. IF THE CYCLONE SURVIVES INTERACTION WITH LAND ANDSTRONG SHEAR...IT COULD REGENERATE OR RESTRENGTHEN LATE IN THEPERIOD. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTYIN THE INTENSITY FORECAST IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY PERIOD.ABSENT RELIABLE CENTER FIXES...THE SPEEDY INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...285/25...OF CHANTAL IS QUITE UNCERTAIN. BASED ON AVAILABLEAIRCRAFT DATA THE CENTER IS RELOCATED A BIT TO THE SOUTH RELATIVETO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...WHICH HAS A RESULTED IN SOUTHWARD ANDWESTWARD SHIFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS. A STRONGSUBTROPICAL RIDGE GUIDING CHANTAL RAPIDLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ISFORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD AS A PRONOUNCED WEAKNESSDEVELOPS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST AND EXTENDS SOUTHWARDINTO FLORIDA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE TRACK OF CHANTAL BENDINGNORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD AFTER 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIALTRACK FORECAST LEANS ON THE WEAKER GFS SOLUTION WHICH HAS ASHALLOWER CYCLONE BEYOND 48 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 10/0300Z 15.3N 66.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 16.7N 69.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 18.6N 72.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 20.6N 75.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER LAND 48H 12/0000Z 22.6N 76.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 13/0000Z 26.5N 78.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 14/0000Z 29.0N 79.5W 35 KT 40 MPH120H 15/0000Z 31.0N 81.0W 40 KT 45 MPH$$FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 Good stall tactic attempt with this evening's discussion. If there isn't a circulation by tomorrow morning, we'll see what happens. I imagine in post-event review it will become obvious this is a open wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 Airspace restrictions? lol who owns the middle of the Caribbean? Certainly didn't keep them from Ernesto last year. Either way, it should be obvious by dawn that Chantal is no more as long as we don't see a miraculous reversal of the current trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 I wonder what's going on with that airspace restriction. I've seen tons of missions flown much farther south than that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 I know Venezuela has denied overflight in the past. Even Cuba, which used to only permit NOAA (civilian) WP-3D flights, now allows the 53rd WRS and has since at least Hurricane Charley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 I know Venezuela has denied overflight in the past. Even Cuba, which used to only permit NOAA (civilian) WP-3D flights, now allows the 53rd WRS and has since at least Hurricane Charley. But wouldn't the 2-3 degree area south of where recon was flying be considered international waters? Thats pretty much equidistant between Puerto Rico and Venezuela. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 But wouldn't the 2-3 degree area south of where recon was flying be considered international waters? Thats pretty much equidistant between Puerto Rico and Venezuela. I guess Venezuela said no? I didnt think their territorial waters/airspace went out that far... I guess I understand...it just seems really odd. Never seen it before in a disco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radius Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 But wouldn't the 2-3 degree area south of where recon was flying be considered international waters? Thats pretty much equidistant between Puerto Rico and Venezuela. Restriction - It's Snowden in transit ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 But wouldn't the 2-3 degree area south of where recon was flying be considered international waters? Thats pretty much equidistant between Puerto Rico and Venezuela. The US and Venezuela have a treaty defining the maritime boundary between Puerto Rico/US Virgin Islands and Venezuela, which as one would expect run roughly halfway between the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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