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July 2013 Observations and Discussions


bluewave

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Overnight low of 48 up here in the catskills, yesterday we struggled to get to 70 all day. I hope the clouds stay east of us today.

I wish these type of lows could happen in the city once in a while. Just to break it up a bit. I know that's pretty much impossible though.

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I wish these type of lows could happen in the city once in a while. Just to break it up a bit. I know that's pretty much impossible though.

Yup, I agree but what happened today was that after a clear cold night clouds streamed in from the front that stalled and now we are locked into the 50s for the day up here unless we get some sun. 50s and cloudy isn't great weather for summer fun.

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Models are all over place with rainfall this afternoon and evening. The NAM hardly has anything. While the Euro has a .50"-75" for NYC.

 

On the Euro, best 700mb VVs stretch from SNJ to NYC. Most models are further east/weaker with VVs.

 

 

12z NAM continues to have nothing tonight and then the coastal also misses and nails the Cape Cod area.

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The 12z Euro should come in drier.

 

The 6z rgem matched the 0z euro.

However, the new 12z rgem, now looks like the NAM and the rain mostly misses the area.

 

So, the euro SHOULD come in drier, but the euro has had major issues the past month with precipitation forecasts, so I wouldn't be surprised if it comes in wetter then the entire suite again.

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The 6z rgem matched the 0z euro.

However, the new 12z rgem, now looks like the NAM and the rain mostly misses the area.

 

So, the euro SHOULD come in drier, but the euro has had major issues the past month with precipitation forecasts, so I wouldn't be surprised if it comes in wetter then the entire suite again.

 

It was always showing a sharp cutoff across the region, but the boundary and storm will be just a little further east.

The 12z model runs have been doing well for warm season rainfall once they initialize where the rainfall and convection

actually is. That's why guessing day 2 convection here is such a roll of the dice. The SPC even has a difficult

time with there day 2 outlooks around our region.

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some places are likely to set record low maximums depending on where they were at midnight last night...temps steady here b/w 60-62 although my davis notes it was 66 at midnight.

Central Park was 68 at midnight est...

todays record low max for...

LGA...

73 in 1974

73 in 1964

Kennedy...

72 in 1977

73 in 1964

Central Park...

62 in 1871

69 in 1902

Newark...

73 in 1969

74 in 1964

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They finally fixed the MAG site.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=NAM&area=NAMER

 

 

In MAG version 3.0, the interface returns to the look and feel of the website prior to the NOAA Web Operations Center (WOC) system crash in December 2012.

The graphical image processing is now done on NOAA’s new Weather and Climate Operational Supercomputing System (WCOSS). The back end processing code has been rewritten to improve monitoring capabilities and allow for upcoming changes to be more easily updated. The web interface has been simplified and rewritten in PHP and Javascript and depends on a XML-driven design. The MAG is no longer dependant on a relational database.

Features in v3.0:

• LoopingisnowHTML-5compliant,makingitavailabletosmartphonesandothermobile devices.

• TropicalGuidanceisonceagainavailable. • Four-panelchartsareavailableforselectedmodelsandareas:

• GFS:NAMER,EPAC,NPAC,andWNATL • RAP:NAMER • NAM:NAMER,NPAC,WNATL,andEPAC

• Accesstolargeandsmallimagesisavailableforselectedmodelsandareas: • GFS:NAMER,NPAC,andWNATL,andEPAC(exceptprecipparameters) • NAM:NAMER,NPAC,WNATL,andEPAC(exceptprecipparameters) • RAP:NAMER • WW3:WNATL • WW3-WNA:WNATL

Upcoming Changes

MAG v3.1: Late September 2013

• Updatethecontourintervaltoevery2dminsteadof4dmforallmodelscontaining850-1000mb thickness maps

• EnlargeSouthPacificareatoincludeAustralia • Add925mbTemperatureparametersfortheGFS,NAM,andRAPmodels • Add500mbTemperatureparametersfortheGFS,NAM,andRAPmodels • UpdateGFSandNAMprocessingtocreatelargeandsmallimagesfortheEPAC

MAG v3.2: Late December 2013

• Addloopingtofour-panelproducts • Add700mbRelativeHumidityandHeightparameterfortheGFS,NAM,andHRWmodels • AddAlaskaregionfortheSREFandRTMA • AddChoicetoloopevery3hoursorevery6hours AddPrecipitationTypetoallappropriatemodels

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They finally fixed the MAG site.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=NAM&area=NAMER

 

 

In MAG version 3.0, the interface returns to the look and feel of the website prior to the NOAA Web Operations Center (WOC) system crash in December 2012.

The graphical image processing is now done on NOAA’s new Weather and Climate Operational Supercomputing System (WCOSS). The back end processing code has been rewritten to improve monitoring capabilities and allow for upcoming changes to be more easily updated. The web interface has been simplified and rewritten in PHP and Javascript and depends on a XML-driven design. The MAG is no longer dependant on a relational database.

Features in v3.0:

• LoopingisnowHTML-5compliant,makingitavailabletosmartphonesandothermobile devices.

• TropicalGuidanceisonceagainavailable. • Four-panelchartsareavailableforselectedmodelsandareas:

• GFS:NAMER,EPAC,NPAC,andWNATL • RAP:NAMER • NAM:NAMER,NPAC,WNATL,andEPAC

• Accesstolargeandsmallimagesisavailableforselectedmodelsandareas: • GFS:NAMER,NPAC,andWNATL,andEPAC(exceptprecipparameters) • NAM:NAMER,NPAC,WNATL,andEPAC(exceptprecipparameters) • RAP:NAMER • WW3:WNATL • WW3-WNA:WNATL

Upcoming Changes

MAG v3.1: Late September 2013

• Updatethecontourintervaltoevery2dminsteadof4dmforallmodelscontaining850-1000mb thickness maps

• EnlargeSouthPacificareatoincludeAustralia • Add925mbTemperatureparametersfortheGFS,NAM,andRAPmodels • Add500mbTemperatureparametersfortheGFS,NAM,andRAPmodels • UpdateGFSandNAMprocessingtocreatelargeandsmallimagesfortheEPAC

MAG v3.2: Late December 2013

• Addloopingtofour-panelproducts • Add700mbRelativeHumidityandHeightparameterfortheGFS,NAM,andHRWmodels • AddAlaskaregionfortheSREFandRTMA • AddChoicetoloopevery3hoursorevery6hours AddPrecipitationTypetoallappropriatemodels

 

And it still looks like something straight out of 1996 that should be running on an old, basic Windows OS.

 

I really can't believe that is the best design the National Weather Service could come up with.

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