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E PA/NJ/DE/Okle: Banter/Non Storm OBS thread

Quakertown needs snow

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famartin

famartin

Posted
Posted

Very odd info coming out of the NWS (see below) and I'm wondering about Saturday during the day in New Brunswick for the RU game at 3:30 pm and the tailgates prior to that.  Philly office is calling for 30-40% of showers during the day on Saturday with up to 0.2" of rain possible (in both their point and click and graphics packages), which would suck, yet their forecast discussion says that the front should come through late enough to keep rain out of the forecast until late Saturday night or early Sunday.  I generally trust the AFDs much more than the other sources, since the AFD is written by a pro and the other packages can be input with errors in them.  Most other media sources are calling for largely dry weather on Saturday. 

 

The other item that makes me wonder about errors in the Philly maps/graphics is that the NYC office point and click and graphics packages all simply say only a 20% chance of light showers before 6 pm with no measurable rainfall predicted, for adjacent areas, like Union County and Staten Island.  Their discussion also says Saturday should be dry until nightfall.  Anyone from the NWS with some insight on this?   At this point, I'd trust the AFDs and assume we're going to be ok for tailgates (warm and humid with highs near 80F and some sun) and likely ok for the game (probably clouds rolling in and maybe a slight chance of a brief shower, but nothing that should affect the game). 

AFD from PHILLY:

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK LIKE THE BEST DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES

OFF TO OUR EAST. A COLD FRONT WILL START TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM

THE WEST ON SATURDAY. THE MODELS SEEM TO SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF

THIS SYSTEM AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT NOT START PUSHING THROUGH

OUR AREA UNTIL SUNDAY.

SKIES WILL CLOUD UP FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT

AND THEN WE WILL SEE SHOWERS STARTING TO AFFECT THE WESTERN AREAS ON

SUNDAY.

Point and Click forecast for NB, from NWS Philly: 

Saturday A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 79. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms

AFD from NYC:

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

THE WEATHER FORECAST IS AS FOLLOWS...DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE

NORMAL TEMPS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE WEAKENING HIGH

PRESSURE AND MORE SYNOPTIC SOUTHERLY FLOW. THEN AN INCREASING CHANCE

OF SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS SATURDAY

BUT HIGHER CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THERE IS SOME SMALL

MAGNITUDE OF MUCAPE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY SO THERE WILL BE A

SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM.

Point and Click forecast for Rahway, from NWS NYC: 

Saturday A slight chance of showers. Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 78. Chance of precipitation is 20%

 

 

Numerically, there is very little difference between a 20 pop and a 30 pop, so as far as that is concerned, its not a big deal.  "Chance" versus "slight chance" wording is based on pop... 20% is slight chance, 30% is chance.  Can't say anything about the thunderstorms.  As far as QPF, some offices have a policy of always putting some QPF in the forecast if there are pops above a certain threshold, others don't, or of course the threshold between PHI and OKX could be different.  I can't say anything more about that aspect.

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MGorse

MGorse

Posted
Posted

Very odd info coming out of the NWS (see below) and I'm wondering about Saturday during the day in New Brunswick for the RU game at 3:30 pm and the tailgates prior to that.  Philly office is calling for 30-40% of showers during the day on Saturday with up to 0.2" of rain possible (in both their point and click and graphics packages), which would suck, yet their forecast discussion says that the front should come through late enough to keep rain out of the forecast until late Saturday night or early Sunday.  I generally trust the AFDs much more than the other sources, since the AFD is written by a pro and the other packages can be input with errors in them.  Most other media sources are calling for largely dry weather on Saturday. 

 

The other item that makes me wonder about errors in the Philly maps/graphics is that the NYC office point and click and graphics packages all simply say only a 20% chance of light showers before 6 pm with no measurable rainfall predicted, for adjacent areas, like Union County and Staten Island.  Their discussion also says Saturday should be dry until nightfall.  Anyone from the NWS with some insight on this?   At this point, I'd trust the AFDs and assume we're going to be ok for tailgates (warm and humid with highs near 80F and some sun) and likely ok for the game (probably clouds rolling in and maybe a slight chance of a brief shower, but nothing that should affect the game). 

AFD from PHILLY:

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK LIKE THE BEST DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES

OFF TO OUR EAST. A COLD FRONT WILL START TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM

THE WEST ON SATURDAY. THE MODELS SEEM TO SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF

THIS SYSTEM AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT NOT START PUSHING THROUGH

OUR AREA UNTIL SUNDAY.

SKIES WILL CLOUD UP FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT

AND THEN WE WILL SEE SHOWERS STARTING TO AFFECT THE WESTERN AREAS ON

SUNDAY.

Point and Click forecast for NB, from NWS Philly: 

Saturday A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 79. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms

AFD from NYC:

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

THE WEATHER FORECAST IS AS FOLLOWS...DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE

NORMAL TEMPS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE WEAKENING HIGH

PRESSURE AND MORE SYNOPTIC SOUTHERLY FLOW. THEN AN INCREASING CHANCE

OF SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS SATURDAY

BUT HIGHER CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THERE IS SOME SMALL

MAGNITUDE OF MUCAPE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY SO THERE WILL BE A

SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM.

Point and Click forecast for Rahway, from NWS NYC: 

Saturday A slight chance of showers. Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 78. Chance of precipitation is 20%

 

 

I do not have much to add to what Ray already stated, other than WFO PHI had higher POPs so having higher QPF would generally make sense. Also...

 

You stated, "I generally trust the AFDs much more than the other sources, since the AFD is written by a pro and the other packages can be input with errors in them". What are you getting at regarding errors? The AFD can differ some from what is in the forecast since it is a discussion not an actual forecast. Also, 'the other packages' all come from the forecaster. The NWS forecaster puts the forecast together in a gridded database and the products all come from that. So not exactly sure what you mean by errors in this case.

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RU848789

RU848789

Posted
Posted

Numerically, there is very little difference between a 20 pop and a 30 pop, so as far as that is concerned, its not a big deal.  "Chance" versus "slight chance" wording is based on pop... 20% is slight chance, 30% is chance.  Can't say anything about the thunderstorms.  As far as QPF, some offices have a policy of always putting some QPF in the forecast if there are pops above a certain threshold, others don't, or of course the threshold between PHI and OKX could be different.  I can't say anything more about that aspect.

 

 

I do not have much to add to what Ray already stated, other than WFO PHI had higher POPs so having higher QPF would generally make sense. Also...

 

You stated, "I generally trust the AFDs much more than the other sources, since the AFD is written by a pro and the other packages can be input with errors in them". What are you getting at regarding errors? The AFD can differ some from what is in the forecast since it is a discussion not an actual forecast. Also, 'the other packages' all come from the forecaster. The NWS forecaster puts the forecast together in a gridded database and the products all come from that. So not exactly sure what you mean by errors in this case.

Gents - I probably should have been more focused in my question.  My biggest question was around what I perceived as a discrepancy between the Philly AFD, which essentially said no rain at all on Saturday (SKIES WILL CLOUD UP FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THEN WE WILL SEE SHOWERS STARTING TO AFFECT THE WESTERN AREAS ON

SUNDAY.) and the point/click and graphical forecasts, which were displaying 0.10-0.25" of rain from about late morning through early evening on Saturday.  I threw in the NYC info merely to note that the NYC AFD and the point/click was aligned more with the Philly AFD than with the Philly point/click. 

 

My point about trusting the AFDs more than the point/click and the graphics is that the text is written directly by a meteorologist and is essentially self-evident.  I've always assumed - perhaps wrongly - that the point/click and graphics rely on someone inputting data accurately and then performing certain calculations to generate all the detailed, gridded data in some model/spreadsheet, which then spits out the text and graphics - and any time data input and calculations are involved there is more room for error.  If I'm wrong about that and all those graphics and text are generated directly by the forecaster, then I'll have learned something.  And, as per the first paragraph above, "errors" may have been the wrong word choice - what I'm mostly interested in is whether there truly were inconsistencies. 

 

Lastly, I apologize if I came off as being too critical (I also work in a very heavily data/model driven world, doing process development and scaleup in the chemical eng'g world in Pharma, so I know what it's like to have people firing questions at me) - I was merely trying to understand what I saw as inconsistencies, which were important to me as I have a very strong interest in what the weather is going to be like for the Rutgers football game at 3:30 pm on Saturday and on the RU football message board I regularly try to provide weather info to a bunch of Rutgers sports fans (many of whom have no interest in the subtleties of meteorology), much of which I get from the NWS (duly credited/linked, thanks).  Thanks for taking the time to explain your thoughts. 

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famartin

famartin

Posted
Posted

Perhaps a non-relevant question, but what can be done about "dew accumulations" on weather stations? My Davis recorded .01" of precip as of this AM, and obviously no rain yesterday or overnight. How is that data handled by NWS or MesoWest?

Not much you can do, really. MesoWest can't differentiate.

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Boch23

Boch23

Posted
Posted

Well there is a water "rescue" on union ave. in lansdowne. Also knows as the person that tried to drive through a road that floods every time it rains semi heavily and their car stalled.

 

 

Edit: They are in 8 inches of water and are just going to wait for the water to recede. Derp

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HM

HM

Posted
Posted

the weather has been and continue to be outstanding. highs in the 70's, lows in the low 50's (40s for you burb folks)....

The morning "chill" and dew on my car is enough to kick off a bad morning; otherwise, it's been good. Where's the severe weather and hurricanes? I feel like I'm in a Disney movie.

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MGorse

MGorse

Posted
Posted

Tony confused his food. From his AFD this afternoon...  :lol:

 

I WAS LOOKING AT THE WRONG FOOD YESTERDAY, SHOULD HAVE BEEN THINKING
CAULIFLOWER AND NOT PANCAKES. THE INVERSION IS HIGH ENOUGH THAT THE
CLOUDS HAVE HAD A VERTICAL LOOK TO THEM THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY
DEVELOPED.

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Quakertown needs snow

Quakertown needs snow

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Tony confused his food. From his AFD this afternoon...  :lol:

 

I WAS LOOKING AT THE WRONG FOOD YESTERDAY, SHOULD HAVE BEEN THINKING

CAULIFLOWER AND NOT PANCAKES. THE INVERSION IS HIGH ENOUGH THAT THE

CLOUDS HAVE HAD A VERTICAL LOOK TO THEM THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY

DEVELOPED.

 

what else is going on in the office these quite days?

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HM

HM

Posted
Posted

 

I assume you do not have a garage (?).

 

It seems your great detective skills led you to the correct answer! ;)

I'm in a condo surrounded by pines so my car enjoys the fine luxuries of bird excrement, dew and any "ground mammal" that passes by. lol

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