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We appear to near the threshold into a new pattern - good opportunity to start a new forecast/banter

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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There is a severe signal Tuesday or Wednesday. Some EML stuff lurking off to the west too. 

 

 

Yeah I agree. MAde a post briefly on it as the run was coming out before it showed the late week disaster.

 

Wednesday looks like it has potential. I like when the front comes from the NNW.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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We're stuck under an inversion D9...this is verbatim on the Euro...M.A. def gets humid and tropical...but not us. Maybe beyond D10, we warm sector at the surface for a day before the trough moves east.

 

Perhaps... but as Scott said, it's la-la land, and this is yet another impression from a model that throws about as much crap at the proverbial fan as any model does, as it's particular performance for beyond D6s.

 

Having said that, I think the Bermuda high is retrograding W D9 through 10?    That may allow that trough to move east. 

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CT Rain

CT Rain

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Yeah I agree. MAde a post briefly on it as the run was coming out before it showed the late week disaster.

 

Wednesday looks like it has potential. I like when the front comes from the NNW.

 

Yeah could be interesting... we'll see. 

 

Also potential further down the line with troughiness and potential cut-offs. Cut-offs in July can be fun. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Fwiw - NCEP

 

... THE 00Z ECMWF APPEARS TO BE TOO ROBUST IN DIGGING ENERGY FROM NORTHERN QUEBEC INTO NEW BRUNSWICK WHICH LOWERS HEIGHTS IN THE NORTHEAST. THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLES KEEP HIGHER HEIGHTS IN NEW ENGLAND SO A TRANSITION TO THE ENSEMBLE MEANS SEEMED PRUDENT. KEPT A MINOR WEIGHTING OF THE GFS IN THE BLEND FOR A BIT OF DETAIL.

 

As an afterthought, imo, they could have actually written:

 

... THE 00Z ECMWF ALWAYS APPEARS TOO ROBUST AS IT HAS A BEADY-EYED OBSESSION WITH DIGGING ENERGY FROM NORTHERN QUEBEC INTO NEW BRUNSWICK WHICH LOWERS HEIGHTS ERRONEOUSLY DEEP IN THE NE BECAUSE IT HAS SOME KIND OF STUPID BASELINE PHYSICAL PARAMETERIZATION TO LOAD THE PATTERN INTO A +PNA... 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
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Frontage in here Wednesday afternoon/evening...could set off some decent storms.

 

Backdoor murk on Thursday though...has a chunk of the area in the 50s at 18z Thu!!

 

 

:lol:

 

We miss the old CT_Blizz who wouldn't laugh at a backdoor... and who would want to get on the cold side of it and find a way to get a backdoor down to NYC.

 

The Blizz who would start threads because the 12z Euro showed a backdoor that would cause the heat to get shunted south.

 

 

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joey2002

joey2002

Posted
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We miss the old CT_Blizz who wouldn't laugh at a backdoor... and who would want to get on the cold side of it and find a way to get a backdoor down to NYC.

 

The Blizz who would start threads because the 12z Euro showed a backdoor that would cause the heat to get shunted south.

 

 

attachicon.gifMore_CT_Blizz_Posts_2.png

 

:lol:  How are you finding these old posts?

 

I curious which Kevin really prefers...

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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:lol:  How are you finding these old posts?

 

I curious which Kevin really prefers...

 

Its too easy since the EUSWX archives are all online. 

 

Since he leaned cold in the summer back then, its in all his posts from 2007... so its not hard to find at all.  Just like it wouldn't be hard to find a post of him leaning everything towards warmth and humidity now.  Just read a few threads, he seemed to enjoy cool summer nights much more than he does now, and seemingly enjoyed days in the 60s & 70s.  Just like he finds every reason to discuss heat & humidity now, 90% of his posts back then were about cool-downs and being north of fronts and cut-off lows over New England, etc.

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joey2002

joey2002

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Its too easy since the EUSWX archives are all online. 

 

Since he leaned cold in the summer back then, its in all his posts from 2007... so its not hard to find at all.  Just like it wouldn't be hard to find a post of him leaning everything towards warmth and humidity now.  Just read a few threads, he seemed to enjoy cool summer nights much more than he does now, and seemingly enjoyed days in the 60s & 70s.  Just like he finds every reason to discuss heat & humidity now, 90% of his posts back then were about cool-downs and being north of fronts and cut-off lows over New England, etc.

 

That's too funny, it's like he pulled a 180, lol.  I'm just wondering which is the real Kevin... 2007 or now?  

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dendrite

dendrite

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That's too funny, it's like he pulled a 180, lol.  I'm just wondering which is the real Kevin... 2007 or now?  

I envision a scenario where he logs on intentionally trolling warmth and heat...then proceeds to log off laughing while hoping for cold and low dews. Maybe he's an evil genius?

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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I envision a scenario where he logs on intentionally trolling warmth and heat...then proceeds to log off laughing while hoping for cold and low dews. Maybe he's an evil genius?

 

There's a ton of great stuff from back then....

 

Like I found LitchfieldLibations from Eastern, haha... "ptb127" and he was Blizz's arch nemesis (hot vs. cold). 

I'm not posting this for the Blizz response, but because mods must've deleted ptb's post and its the only quote of it.

 

Sounds like a "Friend of Fire" in the quoted text, lol.  I will say if folks think this board leans cold now... back then it reads like 99% of the posters dislike heat, so its gotten better at being open towards other ideas.

 

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dendrite

dendrite

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There's a ton of great stuff from back then....

 

Like I found LitchfieldLibations from Eastern, haha... "ptb127" and he was Blizz's arch nemesis (hot vs. cold). 

I'm not posting this for the Blizz response, but because mods must've deleted ptb's post and its the only quote of it.

 

Sounds like a "Friend of Fire" in the quoted text, lol.  I will say if folks think this board leans cold now... back then it reads like 99% of the posters dislike heat, so its gotten better at being open towards other ideas.

 

attachicon.gifPTB.png

ptb was someone else I believe...lived in PA I think. Maybe you knew that and just meant that he was the warm troller like LL.

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