Chinook Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Check out the 850mb moisture transport graphs and the precip placement graph. The latter is almost unreadable. EDIT: The bullseye is about 24 (inches...)... No, that's the same thing, 24 moisture flux convergence units. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Gil Sebenste sounds genuinely worried at NIU Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Temps and dews just spiked here big time. now 84/72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Just wonder, does anybody think we'll see a PDS Tornado Watch for eastern IA/Northern IL? or will it probably just be a regular watch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Just wonder, does anybody think we'll see a PDS Tornado Watch for eastern IA/Northern IL? or will it probably just be a regular watch? The wording of the MCD doesn't make it seem that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Memphis Weather Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Just wonder, does anybody think we'll see a PDS Tornado Watch for eastern IA/Northern IL? or will it probably just be a regular watch? The MCD makes it a little unclear. May be a conference call decision. BTW, for the first time ever I think, the NWS is endorsing and requesting a specific hashtag use for Twitter/FB (they now have them) today... #highrisk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Here's a snippet from Gil Sebenste's column, a met at NIU, with full link above posted by Hoosier. Again, 3-7 PM for DeKalb will be the time frame for the highest risk forus to get hit. When we go under a tornado watch later this afternoon, Ihave confirmed it will be accompanied by "this is a particularlydangerous situation" wording. I agree completely with that assessment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 lots of people rolling out of the office early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Odd, Gil Sebenste says he's "confirmed" that the tornado watch will be a PDS for the Chicago metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 winds hanging tough SSE downtown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I Track Storms Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 What are the best television stations for live streaming in Eastern Iowa/Northern Illinois? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Some ACCAS starting to show up on the DVN 88D as 35-40 dBZ echoes around 14 kft. The Cu is fighting what's left of the cap, 17z DVN sounding had shown the cap is cooling and lifting higher in the atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgeeWx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 They just postponed the White Sox/Blue Jays game. Wonder if they'll do that for Game 1 of the Stanley Cup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 They just postponed the White Sox/Blue Jays game. Wonder if they'll do that for Game 1 of the Stanley Cup. That definitely seems like a good idea, although the fact that the hockey game is indoors may factor in as well (even though it probably shouldn't). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Those echoes definitely have the elevated look, as they are moving NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 129 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 130 PM CDT THE MAIN THOUGHTS ON THE THREATS AND TIMING ON THE LIKELY SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK REMAIN SIMILAR. VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATES MORE AGITATION IN THE ACCAS IN WEST- TO-EAST BANDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIGHT ECHOES CONTINUING ON THE RADAR MOSAIC. THESE ARE SIGNS OF THE ELEVATED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ACTUALLY ALREADY SOME MAMMATUS HAVE BEEN SEEN. STEEP LAPSE RATES SEEN ON AMDAR DATA AND THE 18Z DVN RAOB ABOVE THIS LAYER COULD SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND FAR NORTHWEST IN WITHIN THE NEXT TWO TO THREE HOURS. OF GREATER CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LIKELY OVER NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI/NORTHWEST IL. THE PRIMARY 1004MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL IA CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EAST WITH 5 MB/3 HR PRESSURE FALLS CENTERED OVER THE CWA WHERE THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS POSITIONED ITSELF. THIS BOUNDARY HAS UNDULATED SOME...BUT APPEARS TO BE NORTH OF I-88 ESE INTO THE CHICAGO METRO AREA...AND WILL POTENTIALLY BECOME MORE DEFINED WITH CLEARING OCCURING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. PRONOUNCED DRYING ON WATER VAPOR AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORT WAVE IN SOUTHERN MN AND A MID- LEVEL WIND MAX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND OVERRIDE THE WARM FRONTAL REGION ACROSS EASTERN IA SHORTLY. THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION SEEN ON HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT IN THIS AREA IS SUPPORTED BY OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...WITH THE DVN RAOB AND RAP ANALYSIS HAVING INDICATED THE CAP TO BE ERODED. THIS LIKELY DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT AT FIRST WILL AGAIN EVOLVE EAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL AFTER MAINLY 4 PM. THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SPECTRUM OF THE CURRENT ATMOSPHERE ARE NO PROBLEMS FOR SEVERE STORMS...WITH HIGH CAPE GREATER THAN 2500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 45 KTS. SUPERCELLS WILL CERTAINLY BE SUPPORTED. SOME DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE INITIAL CELLS...POSSIBLY SURFACE BASED...MAY OCCUR TOO DEPENDING ON IF THE CIN CAN ERODE AND THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS ENHANCED. THIS LENDS TO UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN THE FIRST ROBUST ACTIVITY COULD REACH CHICAGO. BUT THE PRIMARY THREAT TIMES STILL LOOK TO BE 4-7 PM IN AND AROUND ROCKFORD AND 6-11 PM IN CHICAGO. OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS THE POTENTIAL FOR A ROBUST MCS...WITH WINDS POTENTIALLY 80 TO 100 MPH WINDS...DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVE. ALL INGREDIENTS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THIS...INCLUDING A STRONG MID-LEVEL JET...SUFFICIENT 0-3 KM SHEAR FOR COLD POOL ORGANIZATION...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH DOWNDRAFT CAPE...AND A VEERING STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET INTO A EXISTING BAROCLINIC GRADIENT. MANY OF THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE INDICATE NOT ONLY MCV TYPE STRUCTURE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IL RACING INTO CHICAGO AND NORTHWEST IN THIS EVE...BUT ALSO AGREE ON HIGH SURFACE-BASED WINDS. RAP AND NAM FORECASTS INTO TONIGHT FOR THE ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT THIS AS WOULD THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF A QUICKLY EASTWARD DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND WITH THE POSSIBLE PATH OF THIS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LAKE MI IS THAT A SEICHE WOULD BE FAVORED IF THAT WERE TO OCCUR. THE 12Z LOCAL ARW ACTUALLY APPEARS TO HAVE THAT FORECAST IN THE PRESSURE FIELDS. WILL MENTION THIS AND THE HIGHER ENDS WINDS OVER LAND IN THE HWO.+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Memphis Weather Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 That definitely seems like a good idea, although the fact that the hockey game is indoors may factor in as well (even though it probably shouldn't). Add to that it being a nationally televised game on a major network (NBC), probably a logistical nightmare to reschedule. May be a good idea but those issues might overshadow such a decision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 They just postponed the White Sox/Blue Jays game. Wonder if they'll do that for Game 1 of the Stanley Cup. Don't think I've ever seen any baseball game ever postponed due to expected inclement weather... Very smart idea to do so though on their part, wouldn't want 10000+ people in a stadium with 75+ MPH winds, or tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 What are the best television stations for live streaming in Eastern Iowa/Northern Illinois?Wcia out of Champaign does live streaming for C IL and NC IL when warnings are issued just click on severe weather center then click live stream....probably one of the best mets in the state at that station Derrick FabertSent from my iPhone 5 using Tapatalk! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 More sun breaks now. Looks like the front is hung up along a line from downtown to about Crystal Lake. (~Route 14) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I'm wondering if that cap will hold stout South of I80 in iowa... Seen it happen before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Im at work, havent been following to much this morning. Current obs are 91/70 defiantly juicy. How is chambana looking for this event? Im afraid we're to far south, of the main event. Shame to see a setup like this go to waste. Considering traveling 60-80 miles north. Maybe Bourbonnais. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgeeWx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 That definitely seems like a good idea, although the fact that the hockey game is indoors may factor in as well (even though it probably shouldn't). Side note: I'm from Chicago and my Twitter/Facebook feeds are all about what friends are doing for the game. Rush hour traffic combined with people trying to get to bars and restaurants around puck drop are only going to create more problems. I've told everyone I can back home to make plans to stay in tonight and keep one eye on the local news. I've just got this awful knot in my stomach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 129 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 130 PM CDT THE MAIN THOUGHTS ON THE THREATS AND TIMING ON THE LIKELY SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK REMAIN SIMILAR. VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATES MORE AGITATION IN THE ACCAS IN WEST- TO-EAST BANDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIGHT ECHOES CONTINUING ON THE RADAR MOSAIC. THESE ARE SIGNS OF THE ELEVATED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ACTUALLY ALREADY SOME MAMMATUS HAVE BEEN SEEN. STEEP LAPSE RATES SEEN ON AMDAR DATA AND THE 18Z DVN RAOB ABOVE THIS LAYER COULD SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND FAR NORTHWEST IN WITHIN THE NEXT TWO TO THREE HOURS. OF GREATER CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LIKELY OVER NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI/NORTHWEST IL. THE PRIMARY 1004MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL IA CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EAST WITH 5 MB/3 HR PRESSURE FALLS CENTERED OVER THE CWA WHERE THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS POSITIONED ITSELF. THIS BOUNDARY HAS UNDULATED SOME...BUT APPEARS TO BE NORTH OF I-88 ESE INTO THE CHICAGO METRO AREA...AND WILL POTENTIALLY BECOME MORE DEFINED WITH CLEARING OCCURING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. PRONOUNCED DRYING ON WATER VAPOR AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORT WAVE IN SOUTHERN MN AND A MID- LEVEL WIND MAX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND OVERRIDE THE WARM FRONTAL REGION ACROSS EASTERN IA SHORTLY. THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION SEEN ON HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT IN THIS AREA IS SUPPORTED BY OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...WITH THE DVN RAOB AND RAP ANALYSIS HAVING INDICATED THE CAP TO BE ERODED. THIS LIKELY DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT AT FIRST WILL AGAIN EVOLVE EAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL AFTER MAINLY 4 PM. THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SPECTRUM OF THE CURRENT ATMOSPHERE ARE NO PROBLEMS FOR SEVERE STORMS...WITH HIGH CAPE GREATER THAN 2500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 45 KTS. SUPERCELLS WILL CERTAINLY BE SUPPORTED. SOME DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE INITIAL CELLS...POSSIBLY SURFACE BASED...MAY OCCUR TOO DEPENDING ON IF THE CIN CAN ERODE AND THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS ENHANCED. THIS LENDS TO UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN THE FIRST ROBUST ACTIVITY COULD REACH CHICAGO. BUT THE PRIMARY THREAT TIMES STILL LOOK TO BE 4-7 PM IN AND AROUND ROCKFORD AND 6-11 PM IN CHICAGO. OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS THE POTENTIAL FOR A ROBUST MCS...WITH WINDS POTENTIALLY 80 TO 100 MPH WINDS...DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVE. ALL INGREDIENTS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THIS...INCLUDING A STRONG MID-LEVEL JET...SUFFICIENT 0-3 KM SHEAR FOR COLD POOL ORGANIZATION...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH DOWNDRAFT CAPE...AND A VEERING STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET INTO A EXISTING BAROCLINIC GRADIENT. MANY OF THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE INDICATE NOT ONLY MCV TYPE STRUCTURE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IL RACING INTO CHICAGO AND NORTHWEST IN THIS EVE...BUT ALSO AGREE ON HIGH SURFACE-BASED WINDS. RAP AND NAM FORECASTS INTO TONIGHT FOR THE ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT THIS AS WOULD THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF A QUICKLY EASTWARD DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND WITH THE POSSIBLE PATH OF THIS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LAKE MI IS THAT A SEICHE WOULD BE FAVORED IF THAT WERE TO OCCUR. THE 12Z LOCAL ARW ACTUALLY APPEARS TO HAVE THAT FORECAST IN THE PRESSURE FIELDS. WILL MENTION THIS AND THE HIGHER ENDS WINDS OVER LAND IN THE HWO.+ glad I wasn't hallucinating those mammatus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 That definitely seems like a good idea, although the fact that the hockey game is indoors may factor in as well (even though it probably shouldn't). Widespread outages and flashflooding could create a nightmare in urban areas later on this evening.....I think a distinct possibility of cancelation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Memphis Weather Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Carbin working on draft watch, probably coordination call coming soon if not already. Pic via @jimmyc42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I'm wondering if that cap will hold stout South of I80 in iowa... Seen it happen before. I'm definitely more focused on north of I-80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 glad I wasn't hallucinating those mammatus haha same here...a raindrop fell on my head so I looked up and saw mammatus...I was like "all righty then" full sun currently....heating up obviously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 By the way, this is also the first June high risk since June 5th, 2008 (which was back in the Plains). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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