Hoosier Posted June 9, 2013 Share Posted June 9, 2013 00z GFS continues to show a favorable pattern for severe weather as a ring of fire type pattern takes hold. Tuesday PM-Wednesday is probably the first in a series of enhanced threats for portions of the region. Going to have a reservoir of strong instability to tap so although day to day details are somewhat uncertain, it seems like there's a pretty good chance for a robust event or three. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 9, 2013 Share Posted June 9, 2013 Pretty interesting pattern shaping up here, in addition to the larger synoptic systems that may offer accordingly enhanced potential, there also appears to be a number of periodic s/w troughs and ripples in the flow (somewhat like the Bennington day) in between the larger anomalies that could trigger sfc cyclogenesis episodes and resulting MCS activity/localized severe events with a healthy pool of instability like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 9, 2013 Share Posted June 9, 2013 I guess put an end date of 2014 for this thread....??? DVN... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL645 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013WHILE I AM SOMEWHAT SUSPECT IS BEING DRIVEN BY A CONVECTIVELYGENERATED VORT...THE PATTERN ALOFT SHOULD AMPLIFY THURSDAY INTOFRIDAY...RESULTING IN A DRY FORECAST AND COOLER WEATHER...FOLLOWEDBY ONE OF TWO SCENARIOS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.BEYOND...THE GFS SUPPORTS ANOTHER MCS PARADE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGHTHE YEAR 2014. OK...WELL...MAYBE NOT THAT LONG...BUT SAFE TO SAYTHROUGH 240 HOURS...IT HOLDS THE RING OF FIRE PATTERN IN PLACE WHICHIS OMINOUS HEADING INTO THE PORTION OF THE YEAR KNOWN FOR FEWSIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN SYNOPTIC FLOW REGIMES. THE ECWMF REMAINS MOREAMPIFIED...WITH MUCH COOLER AIR IN THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN 1/3OF THE CONUS BEYOND SUNDAY. THUS....IT HAS A WET MCS POTENTIALFRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY AND MUCH COOLERWEATHER. sorry....made me chuckle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted June 9, 2013 Share Posted June 9, 2013 The latest AFD from Mike Ryan MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO INDICATE STRONG WARM ADVECTION WEDNESDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS WARMING ABOVE 20C NOTED OFF BOTH THE OP GFS AND ECMWF INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST IMPACTING NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY...ANTICIPATE LIMITED CLOUDS INITIALLY WITH CAPPING IN PLACE. THE STRONG HEATING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S AND POSSIBLY MAKE A RUN AT 90. THIS WILL ALSO SUPPORT A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS BY LATE DAY...WITH SOUNDINGS ALREADY SUGGESTIVE OF CAPE VALUES NEAR 3000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES OF -8 TO -5. BL SHEAR AND FORCING WILL INCREASE AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES AND A LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE TO PUMP MOIST UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP IS SUPPORTIVE FOR ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LIKELY CONSOLIDATION INTO AN MCS POTENTIALLY PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 9, 2013 Share Posted June 9, 2013 ILN AFD also likes Wednesday night/Thursday for severe storms and heavy rain. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1113 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013 .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT AN EAST-WEST FRONT WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SERVE AS A PRIMARY FOCUS FOR STORMS EARLY IN THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH CONVECTION COULD OCCUR JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SINCE IT APPEARS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE COULD BECOME RATHER UNSTABLE. EXPECT A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH. THIS HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO BE BOTH A SEVERE WEATHER PRODUCER AND A HEAVY RAIN EVENT. STILL UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT IN TIME BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR GUIDANCE TRENDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE COULD BRING STORMS INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BUT PROBABILITY IS QUITE LOW AT THIS POINT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY MAY PUSH 90 IN PARTS OF THE TRI-STATE. AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY READINGS WILL FALL BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 9, 2013 Share Posted June 9, 2013 Looks like a typical summer pattern shaping up. Complexes of storms riding around the edge of the building upper high. One thing to watch for is the storms to lay out effective boundaries that can sometimes force things further south than forecast by the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 9, 2013 Share Posted June 9, 2013 juicy.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 9, 2013 Share Posted June 9, 2013 Looks like a typical summer pattern shaping up. Complexes of storms riding around the edge of the building upper high. One thing to watch for is the storms to lay out effective boundaries that can sometimes force things further south than forecast by the models. on the money post...this happens every time I'll be in Champaign Fri-Sun so bring it on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 9, 2013 Share Posted June 9, 2013 Looks like a very interesting series of MCS's for MO/IA/IL/IN for the near future per 12z Sunday NAM and GFS. Severe and heavy rain issues may become concerning with multiple rounds at various intervals. IL river is already above flood stage throughout much of its length and could certainly rise with additional rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 9, 2013 Share Posted June 9, 2013 First thing that came to mind when looking at the 18z NAM for Tuesday evening was 8/4/08. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 9, 2013 Author Share Posted June 9, 2013 First thing that came to mind when looking at the 18z NAM for Tuesday evening was 8/4/08. Oh no you didn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 9, 2013 Share Posted June 9, 2013 That's...a lot of CAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 9, 2013 Share Posted June 9, 2013 should be a solid week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 9, 2013 Share Posted June 9, 2013 should be a solid week most AFD's pumpin' johnny cash style ring of fire....I like your and cyclone's thoughts of progressively more south....obviously it shall depend on how much time there is between blow ups...either way, being in the vicinity for the next week plus stirs the pot nicely...gonna be some muggy arse days where the pooling convenes along the south side of the boundary...pwats look ridiculous as well.... and to thundersnow....funny you mention '08....brought that up to a friend today just for giggly comparisons... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 9, 2013 Share Posted June 9, 2013 Early guess on round 1 will be N. IA into S. WI and far N. IL with subsequent threats trending slowly south form there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kbotc Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 on the money post...this happens every time I'll be in Champaign Fri-Sun so bring it on urg... My wedding is Saturday, outdoors, in Champaign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 New day 2 for Tuesday DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0101 AM CDT MON JUN 10 2013 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST... ...SYNOPSIS... ASIDE FROM TROUGHING INVOF THE ERN AND WRN U.S. COASTS...A LARGE RIDGE PREVAILING OVER THE CENTRAL 2/3 OF THE COUNTRY IS PROGGED TO BE THE MAIN UPPER FEATURE DAY 2. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN REGION DURING THE DAY...AND BEGIN TO EMERGE INTO THE PLAINS -- AND THIS FEATURE AND AN ASSOCIATED CENTRAL PLAINS SURFACE LOW -- WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE/SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS PERIOD. ...SRN SD/NRN NEB EWD ACROSS SRN MN/NRN IA TO SWRN WI/NWRN IL... A CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER IS FORECAST ACROSS THE PLAINS...DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF BACKGROUND RIDGING ALOFT. AS THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKIES APPROACHES THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AREAS NEAR AND N/E OF THE SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO BE MOVING ACROSS NEB SHOULD BECOME THE MAIN AREAS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP AS FAR W AS SRN MT AND NERN WY...AND EVENTUALLY MAY SPREAD INTO THE IL/IN AREAS...BUT THE MAIN ZONE OF POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL EXIST ACROSS THE SRN SD/NRN NEB/NRN IA/SRN MN VICINITY. HAVING SAID THAT...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED...GIVEN THE BACKGROUND CAPPING. STILL...WHERE STORMS CAN DEVELOP...AMPLE INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS SUGGESTS THAT HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. SOME CLUSTERING/MCS DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR DURING THE EVENING...WHICH WOULD THEN MOVE ACROSS IA AND POSSIBLY INTO IL/INDIANA WITH CONTINUED WIND POTENTIAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 New Day 3 for Wednesday DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0230 AM CDT MON JUN 10 2013 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST U.S.... ...SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE PAC NW IS FORECAST TO MAKE SLOW EWD PROGRESS DAY 3...WHILE TROUGHING ALSO PERSISTS OVER ERN CANADA AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...BROAD RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. WITHIN THE RIDGE HOWEVER...A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MAKE EWD PROGRESS ACROSS THE NWRN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH...AND A LOW/FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIKEWISE SHIFT ACROSS THE MIDWEST IN TANDEM WITH THE MIDWESTERN UPPER SYSTEM. ...THE MIDWEST... AS THE POTENT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE MIDWEST...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITHIN AN AIRMASS ACQUIRING MODERATE INSTABILITY IN CONJUNCTION WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE GFS AND NAM DIFFER WITH SURFACE FRONTAL EVOLUTION/LOW POSITION ACROSS THIS AREA...SO DETAILS REMAIN DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE...BUT IN GENERAL A RELATIVELY BROAD ZONE OF AT LEAST ISOLATED HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT GIVEN MODERATE WLY WINDS WITHIN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE ACROSS THIS REGION. ONCE DETAILS BECOME A BIT MORE CLEAR...MORE SUBSTANTIAL WIND THREAT MAY BECOME EVIDENT ACROSS PARTS OF THIS AREA...WHICH WOULD WARRANT INCREASED PROBABILITIES IN LATER FORECASTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 Looks like a nice combination of convective activity, MUCAPE and deep layer shear...Sig tor values would also indicate at least an isolated tornado threat, if the forecasts hold up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 I can't wait for my shelf cloud Wednesday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 If you were to believe the 12z NAM, you'd favor I-88 and south both Tuesday and Wednesday evening. Think we see something impressive one of these days. This run had 80kts of shear here Tuesday night, although just north of the front. Like DVN/Waterloo to Morris/IKK as of now. Waiting for GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 If you were to believe the 12z NAM, you'd favor I-88 and south both Tuesday and Wednesday evening. Think we see something impressive one of these days. This run had 80kts of shear here Tuesday night, although just north of the front. Like DVN/Waterloo to Morris/IKK as of now. Waiting for GFS. Pretty big jump south for the NAM but it has been an northern outlier so that isn't surprising. Your target area sounds decent, we won't have a better idea until initiation but once that happens the track should be pretty clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 GFS also liking along and south of I88..coma head for the city? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 10, 2013 Author Share Posted June 10, 2013 Placement of greatest threat a bit uncertain but Wednesday looks ripe for pretty significant damaging wind event. Like the mid level dry air across the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 Placement of greatest threat a bit uncertain but Wednesday looks ripe for pretty significant damaging wind event. Like the mid level dry air across the area. you're going to get smoked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 10, 2013 Author Share Posted June 10, 2013 Will also have to watch for some isolated tornado potential as Quincy said, especially near the front, although area of stronger low level flow and the surface boundary look a bit disjointed at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 I'm liking south suburbs/I-80/IL-17 magic Tuesday but especially Wed evening. Get a little lake magic closer to Chicago too (plus, I'll be home for it (giggity)). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 new d2 expanded into IL....right into cycloneville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 LOT mentions supercells a possibility if there are any well defined boundaries left over from the morning's action on wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 LOT mentions supercells a possibility if there are any well defined boundaries left over from the morning's action on wednesday Given the progged SCP values and 850-500 mb crossover shear with the GFS, SREF and NAM, this doesn't surprise me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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