Tropical Disco 2013 SNE

[OceanStWx]

We say this every year, but people have no idea what they are in for when a Cat II or worse comes into HVN. No idea and you can put NNE into the mix too if that happens.

 

Tree damage with '38 is still written and talked about up here. It will happen again.

[OceanStWx]

Even a storm like Bob nowadays would probably be wayyy overhyped. I can't even imagine a storm like Carol...which wasn't 1938, but was insanely intense at landfall in SE CT and destroyed RI.

 

I still love reading this page and seeing the pictures (linked at the bottom of the page) at this website. http://www.giveyoujoy.net/natural_high/hurricane_carol/memories/

 

 

Obviously I grew up in Barrington, so seeing these images really give me an overwhelming sense of how bad Carol was. It did damage in town that survived '38.

[CoastalWx]

Truth. The most common phone call we receive from the media is "did we break any record?" or "is this type of thing really rare?"

 

Case in point the tornado warnings we issued on Sunday. Now people want to know how many we issue a year, and if tornadoes are common in Maine. They seem shocked to learn we're on par with the rest of New England (if not slightly higher because of the size of the state).

 

I wonder if people realize how low the tornado count has been in the Plains this year. You'd think we would be in the running for a record if you watch the nightly news...unfortunately there has been some notable ones that stand out.

[Bostonseminole]

 

Slightly ot, Every hurricane season i wonder if this is the year a cat 4/cat5 goes over key west/ outer keys. While this may be morbid thinking, i think that is an area with highest threat of loss of life, bc those people (or at least half) won't leave no matter what and a barrier island so narrow and low lying will stand little chance for survivors in a cat 4/5 scenario. I think the numbers would be disturbingly high.

I'm not sure, the Key are evacuated pretty quickly, when I lived in Miami, they would do minor evaluation even iin a strong TS, if CAT4 is headed that way they would evacuate the whole keys I hope.

[Damage In Tolland]

Tree damage with '38 is still written and talked about up here. It will happen again.

I wonder if it will be this year?

[OceanStWx]

I wonder if people realize how low the tornado count has been in the Plains this year. You'd think we would be in the running for a record if you watch the nightly news...unfortunately there has been some notable ones that stand out.

 

Probably the number one reason why there is actually a need to push for the Weather Ready Nation. Severe season started slow, but any storm can strike a major city. Preparedness would go a long way to preventing loss of life and property.

[CoastalWx]

BTW, great link from Carol.

[OceanStWx]

BTW, great link from Carol.

 

It's pretty rare to have such a comprehensive collection of pictures from a storm during that era. Maybe a few from a newspaper, but not in this form of almost a storm summary.

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

I wonder if it will be this year?

75 year anniversary this year, it would be fitting.

1938 meet 2013.

[N. OF PIKE]

 

I'm not sure, the Key are evacuated pretty quickly, when I lived in Miami, they would do minor evaluation even iin a strong TS, if CAT4 is headed that way they would evacuate the whole keys I hope.

They would do mandatory evacs, but there are thousands and thousands who wouldnt leave, unless someone physically grab'd them and took them into police cruiser.

[N. OF PIKE]

 

I'm not sure, the Key are evacuated pretty quickly, when I lived in Miami, they would do minor evaluation even iin a strong TS, if CAT4 is headed that way they would evacuate the whole keys I hope.

They would do mandatory evacs, but there are thousands and thousands who wouldnt leave (in lower keys), unless someone physically grab'd them and took them into police cruiser. Also the vibe in miami is way different then the ppl who live in lower keys, no comparison

[Scituate44]

It's pretty rare to have such a comprehensive collection of pictures from a storm during that era. Maybe a few from a newspaper, but not in this form of almost a storm summary.

 

I was on my uncle's 33' sailboat in Carol. We were at a large marina in Swansea, MA. When the storm was over, we were the only boat still afloat. I remember the eyewall approaching like it was yesterday. It was an incredibly viscious storm.

[TalcottWx]

1635 Colonicane and 1815 were both on par with 1938.

Point made, but both lacked observations that could confirm that. You can take witnesses from back them for their word, but you really can't ever confirm it for sure. Of course they could be perfectly right, but you know what I am saying.

[Ginx snewx]

Even the NOAA and geo coastline aerial surveys of before and after forgot RI. Many folks have compared it similarly to Carol. Let's not forget either that up to 86 mph winds were recorded in many places along our south coast.

[Ginx snewx]

Point made, but both lacked observations that could confirm that. You can take witnesses from back them for their word, but you really can't ever confirm it for sure. Of course they could be perfectly right, but you know what I am saying.

Actually excellent sedimentary studies confirm witness accounts.

[TalcottWx]

Actually excellent sedimentary studies confirm witness accounts.

I know what you are saying Steve. Just comparing confidence in recorded strength with storms in present day to things like sedimentary studies/eyewitness reports.

[free_man]

Point made, but both lacked observations that could confirm that. You can take witnesses from back them for their word, but you really can't ever confirm it for sure. Of course they could be perfectly right, but you know what I am saying.

See Ginx's post, although I understand what you are saying.  The sediment studies done several years ago confirm that at least 1635 was a monster storm, up there with 1938. 

[Ginx snewx]

great stuff on tree damage from 38

http://fhsarchives.wordpress.com/2010/06/08/the-great-hurricane-of-1938/

http://prestohost26.inmagic.com/Presto/search/SearchResults.aspx?q=KEltYWdlLkltYWdlX0RhdGU6KDE5MzgpKSBBTkQgKEltYWdlLlN1YmplY3Q6KGh1cnJpY2FuZSkp&qcf=YzRmOGVlNDAtMmY0YS00YjI2LTk2ZjYtZjgzMmJlNDk1OWY2

http://www.foresthistory.org/search.htm?q=1938%20hurricane&client=libraries-forest&site=duke_collection&proxystylesheet=libraries-forest&output=xml_no_dtd&SearchButton.x=7&SearchButton.y=15

[OceanStWx]

great stuff on tree damage from 38

http://fhsarchives.wordpress.com/2010/06/08/the-great-hurricane-of-1938/

http://prestohost26.inmagic.com/Presto/search/SearchResults.aspx?q=KEltYWdlLkltYWdlX0RhdGU6KDE5MzgpKSBBTkQgKEltYWdlLlN1YmplY3Q6KGh1cnJpY2FuZSkp&qcf=YzRmOGVlNDAtMmY0YS00YjI2LTk2ZjYtZjgzMmJlNDk1OWY2

 

Looks like Maine stopped in York/Oxford Counties back then.

[Bostonseminole]

 

They would do mandatory evacs, but there are thousands and thousands who wouldnt leave (in lower keys), unless someone physically grab'd them and took them into police cruiser. Also the vibe in miami is way different then the ppl who live in lower keys, no comparison

maybe, let's hope we never have to find out.

[Ginx snewx]

Looks like Maine stopped in York/Oxford Counties back then.

 

Looks like Maine stopped in York/Oxford Counties back then.

http://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/sites/harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/files/publications/pdfs/Spurr_Ecology_1956.pdf

 

 

The New England hurricane of September 21, 

1938, was one of the most destructive storms in 

the history of the United States. Considering the 

damage to the forests alone, nearly 3 billion feet of 

timber were blown down on more than 600,000 

acres of forest land. Damage was severe through- 

out New England except in Maine and a narrow 

strip along the New York state line. In the white 

pine-hardwood region alone, nearly one-half by 

volume of the total softwood timber stand was 

destroyed (Baldwin, 1942

[Damage In Tolland]

That map looks like EasternMass was fine ?

[CoastalWx]

That map looks like EasternMass was fine ?

 

Not with a gust to 186 at Blue Hill...lol. Take those maps with a grain of salt.

[Ginx snewx]

Not with a gust to 186 at Blue Hill...lol. Take those maps with a grain of salt.

well IDK, Blue hill is in that core, you can almost picture a tight wind field that expanded as it raced North just based on those maps.

[Ginx snewx]

One other thing to consider in the blowdown was the amount of rain on the western edge greatly enhanced the blowdown.

[Brian5671]

One other thing to consider in the blowdown was the amount of rain on the western edge greatly enhanced the blowdown.

I've always wondered about that...some historical accounts that I read seemed to indicate a PRE that lasted a couple of days before the main show....wonder how much fell?

[OceanStWx]

One other thing to consider in the blowdown was the amount of rain on the western edge greatly enhanced the blowdown.

 

Which is something that is common to many tropical systems impacting the Northeast.

[Ginx snewx]

I've always wondered about that...some historical accounts that I read seemed to indicate a PRE that lasted a couple of days before the main show....wonder how much fell?

Rainfall from this hurricane resulted in severe river flooding across sections of Massachusetts and Connecticut. Three to six inches fell across much of western Massachusetts and all but extreme eastern Connecticut. Considerably less rain occurred to the east across Rhode Island and the remainder of Massachusetts. The rainfall from the hurricane added to the amounts that had occurred with a frontal system several days before the hurricane struck. The combined effects from the frontal system and the hurricane produced rainfall of 10 to 17 inches across most of the Connecticut River Valley

[CT Rain]

Which is something that is common to many tropical systems impacting the Northeast.

 

It's weird... storms like '38 were preceded by a total deluge. Irene as well.

 

Other storms that wind up super-lopsided like Gloria produced almost no rain where the core of strongest winds tracked resulting in less tree damage than you'd expect with those winds.

 

Forecasting location and intensity of the PRE can help target areas susceptible to greater tree damage than usual given a forecast wind strength.

[OceanStWx]

Rainfall from this hurricane resulted in severe river flooding across sections of Massachusetts and Connecticut. Three to six inches fell across much of western Massachusetts and all but extreme eastern Connecticut. Considerably less rain occurred to the east across Rhode Island and the remainder of Massachusetts. The rainfall from the hurricane added to the amounts that had occurred with a frontal system several days before the hurricane struck. The combined effects from the frontal system and the hurricane produced rainfall of 10 to 17 inches across most of the Connecticut River Valley

 

I'd say...

 

Historical Crests for Sugar River at West Claremont

(1) 12.19 ft on 02/12/1981

(2) 11.80 ft on 03/12/1936

(3) 11.43 ft on 02/16/1984

(4) 10.99 ft on 03/27/1992

(5) 10.92 ft on 03/19/1936

(6) 10.49 ft on 09/21/1938

(7) 8.12 ft on 04/17/2007

 

Historical Crests for the Connecticut River at North Walpole

 

(1) 43.80 ft on 03/19/1936

(2) 39.10 ft on 09/22/1938

(3) 31.36 ft on 08/29/2011

(4) 30.37 ft on 03/27/1953

(5) 29.85 ft on 04/05/1960