Spring in New Jersey, New York and Connecticut Banter Thread

[BxEngine]

The heat advisory was mentioned by Mt Holly not Upton

Its the same criteria, and they didnt mention any advisories, at least not what was posted.

[WE GOT HIM]

Sea breeze just hit me in central Queens (great). Temps off the high now by 5 degrees.

- Currently 71

[Snow_Miser]

Yeah, we are not near the criteria for a Heat Advisory!

 

From OKX site:

 

 

Heat Advisory:  Issued when maximum daytime heat index values are forecast to reach 100 to 104°F for at least 2 consecutive hours.

NOTE: For New York City, a Heat Advisory is issued when the heat index is forecast to reach 95 to 99F for at least 2 consecutive days or 100 to 104F for any length of time.

 

Excessive Heat:  Issued when heat index values are forecast to reach or exceed 105°F for at least 2 consecutive hours.

Watch is issued 24 to 48 hours of the event. 

Warning is issued within 24 hours of the event.

 

The projected temperatures are in the low 90s on Thursday and Friday. It's entirely possible with such soupy Dew Points that the HI gets to 95, as mentioned by the Mount Holly HWO. Of course, they may have different criterion for Heat Advisories than Upton though.

[BxEngine]

The projected temperatures are in the low 90s on Thursday and Friday. It's entirely possible with such soupy Dew Points that the HI gets between 95 and 99 on Thursday and Friday.

The criteria is above 100.

[Weathergun]

As of 18z, the warm front stalled over I-78. It's in the 80s behind it.

 

Edit: Front analyzied as of 15z.

 

[Rtd208]

Currently 82 here.

 

 

[BxEngine]

As of 18z, the warm front stalled over I-78. It's in the 80s behind it.

Hmm. Im at 80 here.

[famartin]

Hmm. Im at 80 here.

Fronts on that map are actually valid as of 15Z, 3 hours ago.

 (not 16Z as the map erroneously indicates)

[Weathergun]

Fronts on that map are actually valid as of 15Z, 3 hours ago.

 (not 16Z as the map erroneously indicates)

 

Yeah, you are correct.

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

79F

[earthlight]

The best 0-6km bulk shear for organized severe thunderstorms remains well to the north of the area. This is forecast to move southeast a bit tonight, but I think the best chance for organized severe weather will remain over Northern PA, Southeast NY and Western New England...with the chance for strong storms dropping south towards NNJ/NYC if all goes well.

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s16/shr6/shr6.gif?1369851561405

[forkyfork]

IMO the warm front extends from upstate NY to northeast CT right now

[forkyfork]

IMO the warm front extends from upstate NY to northeast CT right now

right behind the edge of the clouds

[Snow_Miser]

The criteria is above 100.

 

This is what it says for two consecutive days:

 

Heat Advisory:  Issued when maximum daytime heat index values are forecast to reach 100 to 104°F for at least 2 consecutive hours.

NOTE: For New York City, a Heat Advisory is issued when the heat index is forecast to reach 95 to 99F for at least 2 consecutive days.

[SACRUS]

A few hours of sun and some spots will reach 90 especially in C/S-NJ. 

 

[BxEngine]

This is what it says for two consecutive days:

Heat Advisory: Issued when maximum daytime heat index values are forecast to reach 100 to 104°F for at least 2 consecutive hours.

NOTE: For New York City, a Heat Advisory is issued when the heat index is forecast to reach 95 to 99F for at least 2 consecutive days.

And you said interior NJ.

[WE GOT HIM]

IMO the warm front extends from upstate NY to northeast CT right now

 It may also be behind the layer of clouds over li right now (it coincides with my wind shift)

[Snow_Miser]

And you said interior NJ.

 

Right. I misread it.

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

80F

[uofmiami]

 It may also be behind the layer of clouds over li right now (it coincides with my wind shift)

Winds have been SW in Muttontown for the past 3 hrs, that front is further N in CT, as Forky stated!

[bluewave]

We should see convection increase across the Southern Tier of New York the next few hours

and push ESE. The atmosphere has destabilized more than forecast with little in the way

of any cap.  

 

 

 

[Weathergun]

Temps just shot up 3-4.. NYC 79, EWR 84.

 

Cell near BGM is also showing some rotation already.

[SACRUS]

3PM Roundup

 

TEB: 81
NYC: 79
EWR: 84
LGA: 81
JFK:  70
ISP:
New Bnswk: 86
TTN: 86

[WE GOT HIM]

Storms starting to fire in western NY / PA

[doncat]

Got up to 81 here about 30 minutes ago with a sw wind.... winds have gone sse and temp down to 79.

[earthlight]

One could almost visualize two scenarios this afternoon

1) Area of convection develops over NY State, PA and moves on a more easterly heading through SE NY and CT before dropping southeast and weakning over Coastal CT, with the majority of the severe reports staying to the north of the area.

2) The area of convection develops farther south and west, south of BGM into NE PA and SE NY and then drops on a more southeasterly heading into SE NY, CT and N NJ. Strong winds and hail possible over NE PA, SE NY, W CT. The convection would likely struggle to remain organized south of MMU where the kinematics are lacking. We could probably see strong storms continue south of there with outflow boundaries helping to kick off new storms that are non-severe.

[WE GOT HIM]

Completely cleared out in Queens

- Temps starting to rise again (72)

[Cfa]

79 in Queens.

[H2Otown_WX]

81/68 in Danbury.

[Snowlover11]

82 in Bronxville